The Sublime Impact of Shane Bieber

Former Cy guy added to rotation "like water to a flower"

Making his first major league start in 507 days, Shane Bieber showed why this late-season addition may prove such a huge part of the Blue Jays effort to hang onto the AL East lead, and to finish with one of the top two records, thereby avoiding the dreaded wild-card round that has proven to be their Achilles Heel. They have not escaped the first round this decade, failing to advance in 2020, ’22 and ’23.

The 2020 AL Cy Young winner finally toed the rubber, for real, for the Jays following eight rehab starts for the Guardians and his new team, surrounding a deadline deal for RHP Khal Stephen, one of Toronto’s top prospects. Bieber was back on a major league mound with questions to be answered. But he immediately picked up where his career had left off. The 30-year-old righthander struck out the first two batters he faced, eventually allowing one run in six innings, with two hits, no walks and nine Ks.

“It’s been a long road,” Bieber admitted to reporters in Miami, at his post-game availability. “I’m happy to continue to build off how I was 16 months ago. I feel like I’m continuing to get better. A lot of positive signs. It’s just a matter of continuing to put one foot in front of the other and building.”

Certainly, Bieber had the advantage of facing a Marlins team that featured seven rookies in the lineup, plus a superior Jays defence over any of his rehab assignments, including the final three at AAA-Buffalo, but on this night he was in total command of both his emotions and his repertoire, with a fastball that sat mostly at 93 m.p.h., which is exactly in the wheelhouse of when he was emerging as a star in Cleveland.

Bieber, dating back to his final outing of the 2023 season vs. the Reds and including his only two April starts of ’24, at Oakland and at Seattle, plus Friday’s Jays debut, has a combined pitching line of 24 IP, 17H, 2R, 1BB, 36Ks and a 0.75 ERA. He was, clearly, already working back to lofty heights he himself had set and is continuing to excel.

There is discussion as to whether this one addition to the Jays’ rotation compares in any way to 10 years ago and the boost of energy and adrenaline that LHP David Price supplied with his deadline deal in 2015 that helped propel the team to the ALCS and to the precipice of their first World Series since 1993. The difference then and now is that 2015 Price jolt came with other key end-of-July additions that immediately transformed that team with two full months remaining. Price was just one of many.

In Bieber’s case, this is nearing the end of August and the Jays’ other deadline deals in the bullpen for Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland have been okay, but not game changing. This Bieber addition compares more readily to the David Cone acquisition in late August of 1992, coming out of the blue, at a time when August deals were still somewhat of a thing, by using a complicated waiver process.

Cone was acquired and shocked the clubhouse set to join an already solid rotation that featured Jack Morris, Jimmy Key, Juan Guzman, Todd Stottlemyre and David Wells. Pat Gillick and Cito Gaston figured the pesky “six into five” rotation equation and they went on to beat the A’s and the Braves for the club’s first World Series win.

The fact is that Cone did not have the immediate impact that Bieber already has with this year’s Jays. Cone’s debut was August 29, 1992 vs. Milwaukee, then on Sept. 4 against the Twins. In those two starts, he combined to allow 11 earned runs in 12.1 innings, with 10 walks and 11 strikeouts. Heads were being scratched. But, after that, in his final six starts, he posted a 3-2 record, with a 0.89 ERA, going on to make five post-season starts. Bieber would love to follow the last part of that Cone formula.

JAYS SIX INTO FIVE CONUNDRUM

There is a reason that manager John Schneider bristled when asked about LH Eric Lauer going to the bullpen. There is a reason that Schneider seemed so eager to get Lauer into the Friday night game that he warmed up three times, as Bieber’s pitch count approached 90 in the sixth inning. There’s a reason that RH Chris Bassitt did not exactly seem thrilled when asked about the brave new world of six men for five spots. The reason is that Schneider and pitching coach Pete Walker have sat several times with the group and have a plan to use the four remaining off-days, plus the extra starting arm to give each pitcher an extra day of rest (five days instead of four between assignments) in order to keep enough bullets in the holster for a deep October run.

This scenario is not necessarily what the Jays will do, but it is one of the options they have been considering as they watched the spectre of another Cy guy roaming the dugout and sharing the clubhouse for the last three weeks. Judging from a recent conversation with Jose Berrios, it’s a solid plan, even if the veteran starters will never say it, because it’s not macho or accepted. Berrios, who has not missed a start since 2017, is the one who should know. He and the current 5-man, with Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer and Lauer would benefit from an extra day.

Definitely Bieber, off of Tommy John, having five days to recover would benefit. As such, that would logically require Lauer to make this Wednesday’s start against the Twins at home. It may be why Schneider was trying so hard to get Lauer into Friday’s game, to give him proper rest. Don’t be surprised if they somehow wedge the lefty into Saturday’s game. That would roll into the Jays facing the team with the best record in MLB, the Brewers, next weekend, being able to start Bieber, Gausman and Scherzer. That would, then, also, allow the Jays to travel to Yankee Stadium for a key series, Sept. 5-6-7, with the same trio in the same order.

For Schneider, using off days wisely, plus six quality starters, the Jays could finish the season, over the final 33 games, with three starters making six starts and the other three making five. Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but in a seven games series, the recommended rotation could easily be G1 Gausman-G2 Scherzer-OFF DAY-G3 Bieber-G4 Berrios-G5 Gausman-OFF DAY-G6 Scherzer-G7 Bieber.

But, you know what they say about the best laid plans. Just sit back and enjoy the ride. The Jays need to go 15-18 the rest of the way to reach 90 wins.