The State of the (Blue Jays) Nation Address

President Mark Shapiro admits Jays made mistakes

With major-league baseball’s trade deadline now come and gone and a firm realization that this ‘24 version of the Blue Jays will be fortunate to win 75 games, Blue Jays’ president and CEO, Mark Shapiro met with media on an empty Rogers Centre field, two hours before batting practice, to discuss what went wrong with a team that back at spring training was expected to contend, at least for a wildcard berth, in baseball’s toughest division. But, no.

For a painful next two months, the Blue Jays regrouping front office group has a chance to lick its wounds and figure out what went wrong with their best-laid plans for ‘24. But when asked about plans for any changes in the front office, specifically at general manager, he punted.

“I very rarely am unequivocal about anything,” Shapiro said when asked about the future of GM Ross Atkins. “Commenting on job status during a season, throughout my entire career when I’ve been asked about those things, it’s not something I have or will ever do.

“That being said, contextually, I’m a huge believer in stability and continuity and that those are competitive advantages in professional sports, that reacting and change don’t necessarily mean improvement. We need to be better. We have to be better and again, I think stability and continuity and making adjustments are where I’m focused right now.”

With no secondary trade period in August and with Joey Votto’s possible promotion one of the few moves left on the horizon, there is plenty of time for planning the future of Jays’ run-creation. Shapiro offered his simple view of dates when it comes to roster construction. There’s the trade deadline, the off-season, then the next trade deadline. Not complicated.

Meanwhile, the season continues. On Wednesday, facing the playoff-bound Orioles, the Jays carried a 3-2 lead into the sixth inning, with RH Bowden Francis handing a lead off to the bullpen to record the final 12 outs, in the quest for a second straight win. Unfortunately, RH Ryan Burr allowed a two-run homer to 2B Jackson Holliday in the seventh and Ryan Yarbrough and Erik Swanson combined to surrender three more in the eighth, leading to a 7-3 loss and dropping the Jays to 52-62. Anthony Santander homered twice for the O’s, while Jays rookie SS Leo Jimenez collected three doubles.   

The final two months promise to be quiet times, both in the Jays front office and in the stands, with likely more tickets sold than there will be asses in seats.  

“It’s not a mystery why this team fell short of expectations,” Shapiro began. “The bullpen’s been a challenge all season long. Significant injuries to three guys we expected to anchor the back end and then the backfill just wasn’t there.

“The bullpen’s been an Achilles for us all year and then there were a number of guys in the lineup we projected to have levels of performance that didn’t happen. The greater focus for us is what can we learn from that. What role did we play in that. How we can construct a team that’s better next year. But there’s no doubt it was bitterly disappointing.”

For fans, too. The list of reliever injuries to which Shapiro was referring included closer Jordan Romano, 75 games and counting; setup man Yimi Garcia for 25 games, traded to the M’s; Chad Green, for 35 games in April-May and Erik Swanson for 17 games, before shuffling off to Buffalo, since returned to the Jays. To make matters worse was the head-scratching inability of lefty Tim Mayza to duplicate his breakout ’23 campaign. He was finally passed through waivers and released. The Jays rolled with 10 of the same relievers in ’24 and the pen ran dry.  

But, in fact, for most Jays fans, if push came to shove, they would choose to point a finger at the offence and the inability to score enough runs to support a talented starting rotation that has been healthy, taking the ball every five days, but always feeling like they needed to toss a shutout. Shapiro admits there was a huge miscalculation regarding the team’s emphasis on run prevention, rather than adding some big bats that could lend to run creation.

“In the nine seasons I’ve been through (with the Jays), this is the biggest disconnect from expectations,” Shapiro said. “It doesn’t mean we haven’t had difficult endings to seasons. It doesn’t mean we haven’t had seasons where we knew we were going to have a challenge competing, but this has been by far the biggest disconnect with our expectations and the biggest disappointment. We need to learn. We need to get better from it.”

“The decision coming out of the deadline and the decisions that we made there are representative of that was that we believed,” Shapiro began. “There was enough talent in place to build a contending, championship calibre team next year. Had we not (believed that), we would have made a different set of decisions.

“That work will need to be done to both make sure we continue to develop players here, identify players that could possibly contribute better in our system that aren’t here and understand what to expect from our veteran players. Do a better job of putting all that together and supplementing that externally. So, there’s a lot of work still to be done before we can make definitive statements about ’25, but that intent is clear.”

I think what Mark was trying to say there, is that there will be no long, slow rebuild in the traditional sense at Rogers Centre in ’25. Those processes normally take 3-4 years and the Jays simply don’t have that kind of time, after having promised Rogers ownership that if they paid for the multiple renovations, that a sustainable winner would be their reward.

“I’m not fixated on language,” the president said. “Terming it a rebuild, terming it a retool, we just need to get better. Our decision on whether we retool, rebuild, or whatever you want to call it was based on our belief in the talent in play next year. That being said, we had an open mind going into the deadline. That was evidenced by IKF and Nate Pearson trades.

“We were open to trading players that had control beyond this year, but, ultimately, we believe in the players that we have. We believe in the foundation, between the young players that have transitioned, the players that we acquired and the veteran players we have in place. Now, we need to evaluate and make sure that we have a core in place that is championship calibre, contending calibre for next season and then supplement where we need to supplement.”

There certainly is a lot of work to be done. None of the 13 players acquired at the deadline is a solution for 2025, unless RH Jake Bloss, from the Astros, can become a reliable fifth starter. But after four years of being buyers, trading 29 prospects and bringing just seven back, the Jays needed a reload down on the farm. And they got it.  

In fact, the trade deadline for the Jays served two purposes. First, by dealing away eight veteran contracts for 13 prospects, the Jays slipped quietly under the first threshold of what used to be known as the “luxury tax”. Second, by bringing in 13 new young players of varying talent levels and by signing 30 amateur free agents from draft week, they have restocked, to a certain degree, the depth of a mid-20s ranked farm system. Shapiro gave his views on both.

“The primary concern, the relentless focus was infusing talent into our system,” Shapiro insisted. “The CBT (tax) was something we’re cognizant of because of the baseball benefits, the draft picks (lost), where we pick, but not something we were focused on. Saving money and the CBT (penalties) were very secondary. Infusing talent into the organization, the 13 players we got that was our focus. Infusing as much talent as was possible, taking advantage of this juncture in time, that we didn’t want to be at, by infusing as much talent was important.”

It was suggested to Shapiro, who will be entering his 10^th season at the helm in 2025, that a disgruntled fan base may have to be convinced that the Jays are serious about contending and, in that case, maybe they need an impact move as early as possible in the off-season. But Shapiro feels that just getting better, just winning next year will take care of itself.

So, for the moment, while admitting mistakes were made in assembling this ’24 team, Shapiro won’t commit to the future roles of Atkins or his manager John Schneider.

“It’s not just me,” he said. “You look at (other) best-in-class organizations and sports teams that weather pressure and weather challenges, they stick with people and allow them to make adjustments.”

So, at what point does Shapiro’s policy of consistency at the top, his admirable attitude of loyalty undergo a change, to the point where a shifting of responsibilities takes place, away from those that presided over the mistakes?

“When you’re certain you can be better, you make a change,” Shapiro said.

But for now, the Jays have two months to plan their off-season moves that he swears must begin with finding more offence. However, after the Jays’ most disappointing season since 2017, fans need to be convinced.