Blue Jays realistic goal should be .500 record

Gritty Jays bullpen undermined by failure of offence

A large segment of frustrated and disappointed Blue Jays fanatics, mostly expressing themselves on social media, are calling for the dismissal of fifth-year manager John Schneider. Too many bullpen games, leading to fatigue and failure from an overworked leverage group has led to this desperate, final stretch in which, should a miracle not occur and the Jays indeed miss the playoffs, those fans feel he deserves to be canned. Breaking. Not only is a playoff berth unlikely, but the Jays have a good chance of finishing under .500 on the heels of a thrilling ‘25 trip to the World Series.

With five games remaining for the Jays, at Baltimore (2) and at home vs. the Reds (3), they are 3.5 games out of a wildcard spot, lacking the tiebreaker against the WC3 White Sox, who trail the Guardians by a game in the AL Central. Even if they win all five games, given an injury-riddled two-man rotation, they would end the season with 82 wins, which likely is not enough. Even if the Jays go 3-2, they would end the year at 80-82, spiralling from a World Series berth one year to sub-.500 the next.

After some heavy research on the subject, via baseball-reference.com I was surprised at how many teams, historically, have followed up a Fall Classic appearance to also-ran sub-.500 status the next. Dating back to the start of the 20^th Century, it turns out 39 other teams, prior to the Jays, have taken that dramatic face-plant, one year to the next, dating back to the 1916-17 Brooklyn Robins (who became the Dodgers). In fact the Dodgers franchise holds the record number of times taking a dive the year after playing in a World Series, in 1916(L)-17, 1963(W)-64, 1966(L)-67 and 1978(L)-79.

As for what it indicates about the job status of manager Schneider, let’s examine history. After his 2026 club option was picked up early in the ‘25 season, the lifetime Jays player/coach signed a two-year extension for 2027-28. Even though this extension does not guarantee his future as manager, history, plus logic, support the belief that Schneider’s role, despite the team’s disappointing 2026 season, is safe.

Let’s look at the history of teams, this century, that have advanced to a World Series one year and then dropped to a losing record the next. There have been seven such teams. How many have replaced their manager after the failed follow-up? Zero.

Here’s the list of seven teams that have gone riches to rags, including managers that survived. There have been seven in the past 25 years, beginning with the Angels in 2002(W)-03 (Mike Scioscia). The Rockies in 2007(L)-08 (Clint Hurdle, replaced in ‘09 by Jim Tracy, following 18-28 start). The Cardinals in 2006(W)-07 (Tony LaRussa). The Giants in 2012(W)-13 (Bruce Bochy). The Red Sox in 2013(W)-14 (John Farrell). The Nationals in 2019(W)-20 (Dave Martinez). The Rangers in 2023(W)-24 (Bochy).

In terms of Schneider and his team’s dramatic drop from 94 regular season wins and a World Series appearance, to 77 victories with five to go in ‘26, the reasons for the downward spiral and the logic for 17 fewer wins are there and have been discussed to death. So we will continue.

One of the inescapable handicaps under which Schneider has operated has been the injuries to his pitching staff, especially to key starters, that has led to 40 pitchers being used, including 15 making at least one start. Mound chaos. Consider that the current Sept. roster includes 14 of those pitchers (plus Myles Straw), meaning that 25 other pitchers have been used that are no longer here, or are on the IL.

Not many will remember the Jays having earlier leaned into this list of eight random pitchers, from among the 40. There’s Laz Estrada, Connor Seabold, Matt Waldron, Tanner Andrews, Hayden Juenger, Tyler Heineman, Josh Fleming and Austin Voth.

Fully aware that it’s a different era for major league pitching, consider that when the Jays won the World Series in 1992 they used 17 pitchers in 162 games and the next year, just 16 were called upon by MGR Cito Gaston for an entire regular season.

Let’s examine the busy comings and goings by GM Ross Atkins and his staff.

BLUE JAYS INCOMING TRANSACTIONS IN ‘26

Trades or claims involving MLB Players

4/13 IF Lenyn Sosa (CWS)

5/16 LH Eric Lauer sent to (LAD)

5/27 RH Connor Seabold (Detroit)

6/3 RH S. Woods-Richardson (Min)

6/20 IF Luis Urias (AZ)

7/10 RH Tommy Nance sent to (Min)

8/2 RH Kevin Gausman (to ChC) for OF Brett Bateman +1

8/2 RH Jameson Taillon (from ChC)

8/3 RH Jeff Hoffman sent to (Min) for 3 MiLB

8/3 RH Spencer Arrighetti (Hou) for OF Dalton Varsho

8/3 RH Jose Soriano (Ana) for SS Arjun Nimmala + 2 MiLB

8/3 IF Josh Smith +1 (TX) for LH Adam Macko

8/5 RH Matt Waldron (SD waivers)

8/12 RH Paul Sewald (AZ waivers)

8/27 RH Michael Lorenzen (FA Rockies)

Players Recalled from option

3/31 RH Laz Estrada … 7/18 RH Estrada (2) … 8/3 RH Estrada (3) … 8/5 RH Estrada (4) … 8/13 RH Estrada (5)

4/4 C Brandon Valenzuela

4/7 IF Tyler Fitzgerald

4/7 LH Patrick Corbin

4/27 RH Chase Lee … 5/19 RH Lee (2) … 8/5 RH Lee (3) … 8/11 RH Lee (4)

5/11 OF Yohendrick Pinango … 6/27 OF Pinango (2) … 7/22 OF Pinango (3)

5/17 LH Adam Macko … 6/26 LH Macko (2) … 7/23 LH Macko (3)

6/12 OF Davis Schneider … 7/23 OF Schneider (2) … 8/21 OF Schneider (3) … 9/14 OF Schneider (4)

6/17 RH Chad Dallas … 7/7 RH Dallas (2) … 7/29 RH Dallas (3) … 8/25 RH Dallas (4) … 9/21 RH Dallas (5)

6/19 LH Brendon Little … 7/18 LH Little (2)

7/1 OF Jonatan Clase

7/22 RH CJ vanEyk … 8/28 RH vanEyk (2)

8/10 UT Charles McAdoo

8/15 LH Ricky Tiedemann … 9/1 LH Tiedemann (2) … 9/5 LH Tiedemann (3)

9/1 IF Sean Keys

9/14 LH Brendon Cellucci

Contracts purchased

4/5 RH Austin Voth

4/5 LH Joe Mantiply

4/6 RH Josh Fleming

4/12 OF Eloy Jimenez

4/25 OF Yohendrick Pinango

5/11 RH Yariel Rodriguez

5/25 RH Tanner Andrews

5/27 RH Austin Voth

5/28 IF Charles McAdoo

5/30 RH Hayden Juenger

6/4 RH Chad Dallas

6/22 IF Luis Arias

6/27 IF Sean Keys

7/12 RH CJ vanEyk

8/7 OF Brett Bateman

8/10 RH Simeon Woods-Richardson

8/15 OF Daz Cameron

8/19 LH Brendon Cellucci

9/11 OF Rudy Martin Jr.

9/18 RH Jose Rodriguez

Actvated from IL

4/28 RH Trey Yesavage … 9/21 RH Yesavage (2)

4/29 OF George Springer … 7/6 George Springer (paternity)

5/9 OF Addison Barger

5/25 OF Nathan Lukes

6/8 RH Tommy Nance

6/9 RH Dylan Cease

6/10 RH Max Scherzer

6/12 C Alejandro Kirk

6/20 OF Daulton Varsho

6/20 RH Laz Estrada

6/23 RH Shane Bieber

7/10 Braydon Fisher (bereavement) … 7/31 RH Fisher (bereavement)

7/27 RH Max Scherzer

7/31 OF Jesus Sanchez

8/16 LH Brendon Little (paternity)

8/21 RH Spencer Arrighetti

8/22 1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. (concussion)

9/1 LH Joe Mantiply

9/1 UT Josh Smith

9/4 RH Jameson Taillon