Blue Jays fail in contract talks with Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Losing Vlad in free-agency would have ripple effect

It was almost 10 years ago, July 2, 2015, that the Toronto Blue Jays signed a chubby man-child, the son of a future Hall-of-Famer, a Dominican youngster, born in Montreal, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Now, about to turn 26-years-old on March 16, Vlad remains the second youngest Jays player on any projected opening day 26-man roster. He has become the franchise’s best player of the last 25 years, one signed and developed within the organization. That, to many, makes him a generational talent in this country and this organization, a fact team president Mark Shapiro was unwilling to acknowledge at his end-of-season press conference, in November, 2024.

It has also become abundantly evident in the aftermath of Tuesday’s news that the rest of the baseball world sees Guerrero Jr. through a different prism than does his own club. On Tuesday, the first day of full squad workouts for the Jays in Dunedin (FL), a deadline imposed by the player in order to lend some sort of sense of urgency to the negotiations, came and went with no extension and a wide dollar-gap still there.

The sad reality of the impasse that exists between Rogers ownership and its clear offensive leader, best player and the face of the franchise to an entire nation, has hit home. They had never been close to a deal. The Jays front office is making a mistake.

Arguments for Guerrero Jr.

*The Jays since 2020 have emerged as a major player when it comes to payroll and the ability to spend in areas of need on the major-league roster among the 30 teams. It is a credit to Shapiro and his continued relationship of trust with the people at Rogers, those that control the baseball purse-strings, that he is able to convince them when he feels a certain expense is worth it, moving forward.

However, in this case Shapiro clearly does not seem to believe that Vlad’s becoming a Top 3 in baseball salary, green-lighting an unprecedented Jays investment and selling the idea to ownership, is worth the effort. It is evident that the main roadblock to any Vladdy multi-year contract is the team’s president and his belief. Consider that the Jays for the past three seasons have been consistently among the Top 10 team payrolls, but, in that time, have never had one Top 10 individual contract. It’s like a Top 10 high-jumper who will only set the bar at a height with which he or she is comfortable, never able to see if they can become a champion.

GM Ross Atkins in his Tuesday morning availability used the term “stay disciplined” as his mindset, while Shapiro intoned “shared risk.” The president threw a damper on the encouraging number listed on Guerrero Jr’s birth certificate, saying that you have to take “caution to just use age.” He was asked about other clubs perhaps taking advantage of the Vlad divide to unofficially start courting the Jays best player as he hurtles towards free-agency. “I’ll let you know in nine months.” Harsh.

Baseball has no hard salary cap, as do the other major pro sports, the NBA, NHL and NFL. The only MLB deterrent is a luxury tax type penalty with complicated levels of justice that mostly involve a percentage of fines for the sin of smashing through the increasing levels of team salary, that also include potential loss of a draft choice.

That should not be a deterrent, considering that the Jays have had only one draft pick since 2020 even reach the majors. The Jays, in fact were over the tax threshold in 2023 and paid the first-timer’s penalty. They were over the threshold again in ’24, but at the trade deadline were able to throw enough excess salary in terms of veteran short-term contracts overboard to slide under the bar by season’s end.

*The Dodgers showed the way to beat the system, via the signings of Shohei Ohtani, Yosh Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Snell, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and others. They have demonstrated how to manage the doling out of huge contracts and, then, the ability to manipulate them to manageable levels for tax purposes. The belief is that one Vlad roadblock is he is not a big fan of deferrals.

*IMPACT: But in the meantime, what impact will the impasse with their best player have on the clubhouse and on the fanbase? Vlad in his six seasons in the majors, more-so even than Bo Bichette, has been a lightning rod of fan emotion. In the dugout, the players and Jays marketing created around him the Barrio, a neighbourhood, using his animated personality, a phenomenon clearly evident on TV and in person. The home run jacket is part of it and the Gatorade showers in the post-game (that I hate) are spinoffs of that personality. Teoscar, Santiago Espinal and Lourdes Gurriel Jr were his running mates in dugout joy – and all were dispatched to other teams.

Arguments for moving on from Vlad

Yes, there is no denying that being picked off second base in a key moment in Minneapolis in the playoffs was a gut-wrenching moment, but it’s always been easier to live with errors of commission and aggressiveness, than the other way around, where players don’t seem to care.

Vlad is certainly not a Top 3 player in baseball, but timing and his importance to a specific franchise make him a candidate for a Top 3 total-value salary. The Top two total values in history are Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) and Juan Soto (Mets), with the third place bar being set by Mike Trout (Angels) at $426.5-million

CAVEAT: The ripple effect of Vlad inside a losing clubhouse could be devastating by the All-Star break, as teammates look to their best player to see if he is still with them as the deadline nears. What is the best-case scenario? Vlad said he will not negotiate after the full squad reporting date, but that does not mean his representation will not consider a creative Jays offer that matches his original bottom-line number but makes creative use of deferrals and the Dodger way, to make it work for their star.

“Our only focus now is winning with Vlad,” Shapiro said, unconvincingly.

Fans are hoping that somehow a deal for the next 14 years can still be done, but for that to happen, the Jays would have to move their offer more than halfway. Shapiro is well aware the need to keep filling his refurbished Pleasure Palace at a renovated Rogers Centre and knows Vlad’s popularity with the fanbase is key. Just do it.