Yankees Staying Alive vs. Dodgers heading to WS G5
Statistics can support whatever your point of view
Those that have followed me, over time, at Griff’s The Pitch or at The Toronto Star, will already know that one of my pet peeves is the offering up of statistics that offer predictions based on historical percentages. These experts forecast, with blustery certainty, upcoming success or failure of sports teams, whether in a certain game or a full series, based on long-term details gleaned from events, past.
At one point, early in the 2024 season, recall the Blue Jays had a 57-percent chance of reaching the post-season. By early September, it was down to single digits. No, nobody is apologizing for those fans that were planning a November parade route off those mid-April numbers. Nor should they.
With all that history in mind, the belief is that what is happening in the World Series right now, with the Dodgers leading the Yankees three games to one, headed to Wednesday’s Game 5, cannot yet be a part of any equation of history until the final out is made and the trophy is being presented.
However, it remains an interesting exercise to examine, but not treat as Gospel, previous World Series that reached a similar stage, in order to compare what’s happening in 2024. Remember, any examination will have nothing to do with what will happen in Game 5 -- Gerrit Cole vs. Jack Flaherty. Live in the present.
My prediction for an outcome in Game 5 is that Gerrit Cole will have a superior outing, working at least seven innings, being allowed to throw more than 100 pitches with Yankees backs to the wall. Not certain of that vision? Review his Game 1 performance. He was on top of his game, but was squeezed by umpire Carlos Torres on at least a half-dozen pitches that the ace believed were strikes.
This time around, for Game 5, it’s scheduled to be Chad Fairchild calling balls and strikes. In Cole’s three career starts with Fairchild behind the plate, the ace of the Yankees staff has a 1.77 ERA in 20.1 innings, with two walks and 25 strikeouts. All that information gives the Yankees, as a team, a puncher’s chance to take the series back to the West Coast for a Game 6 on Friday, history be damned.
There are two circumstances that interest me from World Series history and are worth a second look. Here is a study of teams that have fallen behind three games to none and the sad story of failure that has followed. That is accompanied by teams that trailed 3-1 in games that have extended the Fall Classic to Game 7, win or lose. Even though the Yankees were in the 0-3 study, they are now, also, in the 1-3 stats.
Teams that fall behind 3-0 in WS games:
This was the 25th occasions a team has taken a 3-0 lead in games. The last time was 2012, with the Giants over the Tigers, followed by San Francisco completing the sweep with a Game 4 win at Comerica Park. There have been a total of 21 four-game sweeps among those previous 24 World Series.
Of the three World Series in which the trailing team did manage to stay alive with a Game 4 victory, all three of those ended in Game 5. Thus, if you were simply making predictions based on history, the Yankees would have a 0% chance to reach G6.
Only 3 prior teams down 0-3 in Fall Classic that won Game 4:
1970 Cincinnati Reds trailing 3-0 to the Orioles, won Game 4 by a 6-5 score, on an eighth-inning comeback via a three-run Lee May homer off Eddie Watt in the eighth inning. The Reds lost the next day at Memorial Stadium to Mike Cuellar.
1937 New York Giants trailing 3-0 to the Yankees, won Game 4 by a score of 7-3, with screwballing lefty, Carl Hubbell tossing a six-hitter. They, then, lost Game 5 at the Polo Grounds, 4-2 to Yankees ace Lefty Gomez.
1910 Chicago Cubs trailing 3-0 to the Philadelphia Athletics, won Game 4 with a 4-3 victory in 10 innings, taking the series to a Game 5 at West Side Grounds in Chicago. The Cubs winner in relief was Mordecai (Three-Finger) Brown. The Cubs then lost 7-2 to the A’s in G5 to end the Series, with 3-Finger recording a complete game loss. He also started Game 2 at Shibe Park, in Philly.
Eight teams down 1-3 in World Series that take it to Game 7:
There were eight previous World Series in which a team entered Game 5 trailing three games to one, then carried it to a Game 7, winning Games 5-6. The Yankees are attempting to become No. 9. Five previous teams came all the way back from a 3-1 deficit, winning the last three games to capture a World Series championship.
The last three times that a comeback from 1-3 to a championship ring happened are among three of the most exciting Series of the past 55 years.
2016 Chicago Cubs: Trailing 3-1 to the Indians, the Cubs won Game 5 at Wrigley and then took Game 6 at Jacobs Field, setting up a classic Game 7 that ended a 108-year streak for the Cubs. Trailing 6-3 in the bottom of the eighth, the Indians scored a run to narrow the lead to two. Rajai Davis stepped in and on the seventh pitch from Aroldis Chapman, with two out, drove a 2-2 pitch for an energizing two-run blast to tie the game. The Cubs scored two in the 10th on RBIs by Ben Zobrist and Miguel Montero. Joe Maddon’s group hung on for the 8-7 win. Great World Series.
1979 Pittsburgh Pirates: Trailing 3-1 to the Orioles, the Bucs won Game 5 at Three Rivers Stadium and Game 6 at Memorial Stadium, behind lights-out pitching by Bert Blyleven and John Candelaria. Then in the winner-take-all G7, in Baltimore, Willie Stargell’s two-run homer gave the Bucs the lead in the sixth, adding two more in the ninth to complete the comeback. Great World Series.
1968 Detroit Tigers: Trailing 3-1 to the Cardinals, the Tigers won Game 5 at Tiger Stadium and Game 6 at Busch Stadium, handing the ball to Mickey Lolich for Game 7, shutting down Bob Gibson and the Cardinals. Gibson was starting on his fourth day, while Lolich on his third. Always a big-game pitcher, Gibson had already defeated Denny McLain in Games 1-4. McLain and Lolich started three games each over nine days. This was a tremendously important title for the city of Detroit, coming off a summer of unrest, following a tumultuous ‘68, ratcheted up with the assassinations of Martin Luther King and Bobby Kennedy. Great World Series.
1958 New York Yankees: Trailing 3-1 to the Braves, the Bombers beat Warren Spahn and Lew Burdette, Milwaukee’s two aces, to reach a decisive Game 7. The game was tied 2-2 into the eighth at County Stadium, when Elston Howard singled home a run and Moose Skowron crushed a three-run homer off Burdette. Bob Turley tossed 6.2 innings in relief of Don Larsen, allowing one run for the 6-2 win and the Series win.
1925 Pittsburgh Pirates: Trailing 3-1` to the Washington Nationals (AL), the Pirates won Game 5 at Griffith Stadium, then Game 6 at Forbes Field, setting up a winner-take-all G7. Tied 2-2 in the fifth, diminutive second baseman, Eddie Moore, led off for the Bucs with a home run, giving them a 3-2 lead, which remained the final. It was the first World Series comeback, for a team down three games to one.
List of other Game 7’s forced by team trailing 3-1 — then lost: ’72 Reds won Gs 5-6, then lost Game 7 to Oakland A’s; ’67 Red Sox won Gs 5-6, then lost Game 7 to Cardinals; 1912 New York Giants won Gs 5-6, then lost Game 7 to Red Sox.