MLB Notes from Championship Series:
The World Series is all set. The end-of-year team payrolls, according to the reliable Cot’s Baseball Contracts features the Rays (20) vs. the Brewers (23). Though both teams entered the post-season as their league’s No. 1 seed, neither was expected to still be standing, heading to Friday’s Game 1 of the Fall Classic in Milwaukee. This series promises to be interesting and well played but casual fans will be watching football, basketball or hockey.
Sure, the Brewers vs. Dodgers, in the NLCS, averaged over 7-million viewers per game, which was more U.S. viewers for that round of playoffs than any year since 2015. But, of course, we all know that NLCS ’26 viewership was about the presence of the big, bad, much-hated, much-loved Dodgers. Now, the betting favourite is gone, joining those other marquee playoff teams, the Yankees, Phillies and Red Sox. The TV ratings will suffer.
With the 2026 World Series here, the FOX network is left with an unappealing, unglamorous but terrific match-up of two throwback baseball teams playing similarly interesting, thought-provoking styles … call it old-school chess as opposed to analytics checkers. The two managers, Kevin Cash (Rays) and Pat Murphy (Brewers) are among the best in MLB at combining new metrics, with old feel for what’s happening in the moment, mixing them together and coming out of that concoction with the right decision … most of the time. These mixed elements are human and volatile, not off any periodic table.
There is more than meets the eye. The way it’s played and eventual outcome of this World Series is important to the future well-being of the sport. Baseball is a copycat industry and both these teams are showing that money doesn’t always buy scrappiness. Consider that over their nine playoff games, the Rays have seven homers and 11 steals, without being caught. The Brewers have 10 homers and 10 steals in eight post-season games.
Is ownership going to have to change its PR campaign with fans? The understood premise from the ownership side of the ongoing labour negotiation is that a salary cap is a necessity to ensure a healthy and competitive MLB. An unexpected argument against the need for a salary cap is that baseball, to attract fans outside its normal tent, needs a Goliath, a dastardly villain, an Evil Empire in order to draw in the casual viewers for the game’s marquee events in the post-season, capped by the World Series. Good vs. Evil always plays. If there is a payroll floor and a ceiling, at that point of competitive balance, where anyone can dream of making the World Series, MLB will likely end up with more Panic-Room-matchups for TV ratings and streaming dollars like this.
Consider that among highest payrolls, Nos. 20 and 23 remain alive. It seems that already disproves the owners’ argument of the game being dominated by the big markets. But don’t feel bad, we all know that the owners concern for the 30 fanbases being able to compete on a level playing field has never been the real reason there will likely be a lockout on Dec. 1. The quest for a salary cap is all about teams’ bottom lines and their “cost certainty” heading towards expansion. Bidding ownership groups will be inclined to pay more for a new franchise, with the increased fee then divided among existing teams. By the way, you can be sure owners never will offer to split with players the millions and millions of dollars in appreciated value that franchises accrue each and every year. That will always go to the owners, whose careers and money-making abilities don’t end in their late 30s, like players.
The players’ union has already proved its point about the need for increased competence from front offices with regard to player acquisition and development and that being far more important to fair competition than regulating team payroll with a cap. At this point, it has become unimportant which of these two teams wins the Fall Classic. The advocates for no cap have made their point. Sit back and enjoy.
Statistical Observations: The unhealthy reliance in October on bullpens, encouraged by so many built-in off days, the reluctance to allow non-elite starters to go a third time through the orders and that so many middle relievers are now throwing 100 mph-plus, reflects in some telling numbers that have depressed offence. Starters, through 35 playoff games, have logged a total of 292.2 innings, averaging 4.1 IP per start. Relievers have more innings than starters and are credited with 26 of 35 wins. Yeah, we know, wins are so 20th Century.
2026 World Series
(1) Rays (98-64) vs. (1) Brewers (103-59)
G1 Fri. Oct. 23 @ Milwaukee … 8:00 p.m.
G2 Sat. Oct. 24 @ Milwaukee … 8:00 p.m.
G3 Mon. Oct. 26 @ Tampa Bay … 8:00 p.m.
G4 Tues. Oct. 27 @ Tampa Bay … 8:00 p.m.
*G5 Wed. Oct. 28 @ Tampa Bay … 8:00 p.m.
*G6 Fri. Oct. 30 @ Milwaukee … 8:00 p.m.
*G7 Sat. Oct. 31 @ Milwaukee … 8:00 p.m.
HOW THEY GOT HERE: The top-seeded Rays were never truly challenged for first-place throughout the second half, competing in the toughest division in baseball. The Brewers were chased all the way home by the Dodgers and managed to hold them off, to the surprise of everyone outside of Wisconsin. The fact the Dodgers could not get the job done in September to earn home field advantage should have been a warning sign that these Dodgers were not the same as the group that magically beat the Jays in ’25. The Brewers turned the tables on the Angelinos in ‘26, sweeping and celebrating at Dodger Stadium. The Brewers are now favourites of all fans of the underdog, except FOX. The Brewers are 0-1 in WS history, in 1982 vs. the Cardinals when the Brew Crew was a member of the AL.
These World Series survivors emerged from the two toughest divisions in baseball. The AL East had a combined 5-team record of +64 games above .500. The NL Central, for its part, as a 5-team group, was +42.
The Rays earned a bye in the first round, swept three games against the disappointing Yankees, then won the final three games of the ALCS vs. the Guardians to take the series in six. The Brewers took down the Padres in four and swept the Dodgers. The Brewers were 2-1 in the regular season vs. the Rays, outscoring them 16-7.
PITCHING: The Rays lean more into their rotation than do the Brewers, despite the fact Milwaukee has the best individual starter in RH Jacob Misiorowski. The Brewers do not have a win from a starter since Sept. 27, the final day of the regular season, 26 days ago, yet here they sit in the World Series. The Rays, under Cash, have pushed RH Drew Rasmussen and RH Freddy Peralta beyond what some critics believe he should, but it has helped his key leverage relievers remain strong and, seemingly, avoid fatigue over a 7-game series.
The Rays have a more traditional starting rotation, able to trot out a four-man group that can be expected to reach up to 5-7 innings and just over 100 pitches, led by Rasmussen, Peralta, RH Nick Martinez and RH Griffin Jax.
The Brewers need more than the heat-seeking missiles of Misiorowski, but that doesn’t always work out. They need either RH Logan Henderson or LH Robert Gasser to step up. The Brewers have a defined bullpen with CL Trevor Megill and loose cannon setup man RH Abner Uribe, but the best of them all this October has been long man LH Aaron Ashby.
The Rays bullpen counters with the trio of CL Bryan Baker, often Jax, formerly anonymous LH Cam Booser, RH Kevin Kelly and RH Tyler Wells, plus swing-man LH Ian Seymour.
HITTING: The Rays had what is arguably the best Top 3 in any order in the AL -- DH Yandy Diaz, 1B Jonathan Aranda and 3B Junior Caminero. Lately, Cash has inserted Canadian C Liam Hicks into the three-hole, but the gauntlet is still there to run at the top of the order. The Rays have had surprising contributions from 2B Richie Palacios and RF Victor Mesa Jr. But the straw that stirs the drink and casts a shadow over an opponent’s apparent calm on defence is LF Chandler Simpson whose skill set on offence could be an area copied by 29 other MLB teams moving forward. Simpson usually bats 5-6 in the batting order, allowing him to steal bases without fear of taking the bat out of the hands of the big boys or opening a base for their stars to be pitched around. The Brewers will have to be at their best defensively so as not to give any extra outs due to the pressure of Rays smallball.
The Brewers in the ’26 regular season featured just three of 28 position players 30-years-of-age or older. The Brew Crew is a role model for an emerging style of modern baseball that eschews the all-or-nothing style that has heretofore been ruled by launch angle and exit velocity. They define success as moving runners, stealing bases, laying down bunts, fielding their positions, respecting that day’s batting order, not playing with feelings of privilege and understanding the situational baseball of MGR Murphy.
INTANGIBLES: The National League was by far the better league this year.
Rays fans have been showing up at the Trop for the playoffs, but truth is the fanbase doesn’t deserve it. Pre-game television shots of the stands at Tropicana Field for ALCS G6 showed very few fans decked out in Rays swag, meaning these are new fans that weren’t invested in their team on their way to 98 regular season wins. The Rays averaged 17,468 per game at the Trop, which ranked 14th out of 15 in AL. Advantage Brewers.
These are two managers, Cash (Rays) and Murphy (Brewers) who are expected to finish 1-2 in Manager-of-the-Year voting in their respective leagues. The Rays are 0-2 in WS, losing in 2008 and 2020. The Brewers are 0-1 in World Series, back in ’82. The Brew Crew featured three Hall-of-Famers at the top of their ‘82 order, Paul Molitor, Robin Yount and Ted Simmons. In Game 1 vs. the Cardinals, Molitor had 5 hits and Yount had 4 in a 10-0 win. The Cards won in seven.
This year, the active players in baseball and the union itself, prior to the potential Dec. 1 lockout deadline, the expiration of the current CBA, are cheering hard for the Brewers. However, with these two teams facing one another on baseball’s biggest stage, it is already mission accomplished for the anti-cap group.
PREDICTION: Brewers in 7
Thanks Griff!... Here's to a stretch of baseball not dictated as if by "the periodic table"....