With Y-Rod moved onto 15-day IL Alek Manoah set to rejoin rotation

The Blue Jays rotation plans revolve around finding 32 starts for fifth starter

For many in Blue Jays Nation, the sudden repatriation of RHP Alek Manoah to a starting role and into the good graces of each of management, the coaches and his teammates seemed sudden, but there is a method to the apparent front-office madness.

Consider the inescapable reality that the 32 starts that any MLB fifth starter is expected to accumulate over the course of a full season was never, for the Blue Jays, going to come from one person, the way the team is currently constructed.

Thus far, that fifth-starter role has included RH Bowden Francis (2) and RH Yariel Rodriguez (4). Now, as soon as the weekend on Sunday in Washington D.C., Manoah is expected to rejoin the fray with his first major-league start since Aug. 10, 2023, one in which he allowed four runs in four innings vs. the Guardians. Over the past 12 months on the calendar, since May 9 last year, he has made just 12 major-league starts with a 2-7 record and a 6.71 ERA, averaging less than 4-1/3 innings per outing. Mehh!

Manoah was twice sent to the minor leagues in 2023, after the great expectations placed on him of being the opening day starter. His swervy personal reactions to the dramatic course-change in a career expected to be epic were not well received by front-office (he did not report to the minors immediately), by his teammates (you have to learn from adversity not sulk) or the fanbase who saw him tonged by 18-19-year-olds at the Complex League, the lowest level to which you can be sent.

The Jays in their Dr. Frankenstein pitching laboratories were working on the shape of his pitches, his direct line to the plate and other mechanics, but only the man himself could work on the shape of his psyche, his direct line back to the majors and other personal black holes. He was a mess and it was a coin flip whether he would return to the rotation, at least with the Blue Jays. They haven’t announced it officially, still listing TBA for Sunday’s contest, but even Ippei couldn’t lose on this one.         

So, how did this turn around (at least for the moment)? Start with the serendipity of the likeable 26-year-old south-Florida native suffering an injury early in spring training, keeping him working mostly at the Player Development Complex. That made it easy to stay out of the spotlight and allowed him to continue rehabbing his psyche in private. Plus, he got married in the off-season and that always helps in terms of sharing inner-thoughts and looking for answers to self-doubt while not being judged.

But it has not been a straight line for the 2022 AL Cy Young finalist. In his five official 2024 injury rehab starts, at A-Dunedin and AAA-Buffalo, he has logged just 19-2/3 innings with an 8.69 ERA. Nothing to text home about. But the Jays have treated Manoah differently than they did in the second half of 2023. This year, he was allowed to join the major-league team, in uniform, when they opened in Tampa. Between his Buffalo injury-rehab starts, Alek has been a constant presence in the Rogers Centre home clubhouse, even being part of the rotation group that watches that day’s starter warm up and has walked in with the group across the field. He has been a major-leaguer who disappears every five days for his starts. But he needs to repay the normalization that he has felt from those that matter to him by pitching well.   

So why him? Why now?

There are a few easily explained reasons to why the Jays have decided to (likely) roll the dice and give Manoah yet another chance. The season for the Jays does not depend on Manoah’s immediate success in his first start. Reasons:

1-The off days that are built into the upcoming schedule allowed MGR John Schneider and the Jays not to be boxed into a corner with Manoah, should he have spit the bit at Sahlen Field on Tuesday. If Manoah had not pitched as well as he did in his last start, or if he came out a little banged up, the existence of off-days Thursday, Monday and next Thursday would have allowed Jose Berrios to pitch Sunday on regular rest, or else a bullpen day and then a fifth starter would not have been needed (everyone on regular rest) until May 14 at Baltimore.

2-Here is the timeline that was planned by the Jays ahead of time. On Tuesday, April 30, the Jays placed Y-Rod on the 15-day IL with back inflammation and recalled RH Zach Pop. That move was made even before Manoah’s start in Buffalo, so the fact that when he then posted six superb innings vs. Indianapolis, it did not factor into the equation. The die was already cast. The Jays braintrust realized Rodriguez had a minor back issue and took advantage to lengthen the bullpen with Pop for the week, without having to activate Manoah until Sunday’s game.

Clearly the Jays had determined that the 27-year-old Cuban rookie, Rodriguez, was not going to make his fifth MLB start. He has had six combined starts Bisons/Jays and logged 21.2 innings in ‘24. It has already been established that Y-Rod has been given a pitch/innings limit for ’24. Placing him on the IL at the outset of May allows them to control when it is that the rest of his pitches/innings will be used…and those precious innings surely will be, later in the season whether as a starter or in long relief. Rodriguez’s early promotion to the rotation was like that clear plastic thing-a-ma-bob on a slide-rule. They needed Y-Rod in April after Bowden Francis struggled, but they now need to save the rest of his innings while Manoah is given a chance to succeed.

The top four starters are locked in and remain one of the most athletic and consistently healthy groups in baseball. But No. 5 is a human Rubik’s Cube for pitching coach Pete Walker. Any scenario involving a short or long-term IL for Rodriguez would have been discussed in advance. He knows he did not pitch professional ball at any level, in any country, in 2023 and he knows he is guaranteed $32-million over the next five years. A shrug was all he would have needed to reply.

Now if someone can figure out the hitting.