What to do with a healthy Hyun Jin Ryu

A unique proposal for the Jays and the Six

A major pitching decision for the Blue Jays looms on the horizon with regard to rehabbing lefthander Hyun Jin Ryu and his starting role, if any, for the 2023 Blue Jays.

There is an old baseball maxim that states, “Things always find a way to work themselves out,” accompanied by a knowing shrug. But one has to believe that old, brush-off cliché is not nearly good enough in terms of what to do with Ryu, the 36-year-old lefthander, earning $20-million in the final slice of a four-year deal. Free-agency is next, in 2024, and it’s certain that Ryu and mega-agent Scott Boras have an expectation of one more contract in either the majors, or, perhaps even, in Korea. But, for that, he needs a chance to finish healthy, with innings. The Jays control that.

On Tuesday afternoon, Ryu navigated the short drive over from Dunedin’s flashy Player Development Complex to St. Pete’s trashy Tropicana Field to continue the process of his rehab from Tommy John surgery. Ryu accomplished what he needed to on this day, witnessed by a small but important audience of coaches, front-office staff and pitching teammates. To return this year, it’s important for him to continue trending towards health, while not suffering setbacks.

Following his brief bullpen session, as part of a dugout media scrum, the newly svelte Ryu explained his personal view of the timeline he feels he requires for a return to action. It oozed optimism. He makes a case for returning as early as mid-July, but his is not the final word. That final decision belongs to the club.     

It is possible. The once-radical reconstructive elbow surgery has become relatively routine, with a high success rate, since Dr. Frank Jobe first performed the procedure on lefthander Tommy John in 1974. Ironically, John remains the all-time wins leader of anyone post-Tommy John surgery.

Ryu underwent his own T-J tendon-transfer on June 17, 2022. The accepted timeline for recovery and returning to the mound in competitive mode, is nine months to one year. If that also becomes the accurate, approximate timeline for Ryu, he would still need a few rehab starts at various levels of the Jays system, likely ending up with a couple of starting assignments at Triple-A Buffalo.

At that point, if it does happen and if Ryu proves he is ready to re-join the major-league fray, then what do the Blue Jays do with him? That’s the $20-million question.

One Possible Solution

The Blue Jays, after the trade deadline, August 1, if they still feel good about their chances, should decide to go to a modified six-man rotation, including the existing five guys, plus Ryu, who has throughout his career performed better with an extra day’s rest, especially as he has aged and, now, especially coming off surgery.      

What should the Jays do to be nurturing and remain competitive? Within the context of most seasons, a veteran like Ryu, once he had regained an ability to effectively throw 80-100 pitches at the major-league level, would carefully, be returned to the five-man rotation, but this current Blue Jays group is different.

In addition to being the only current MLB team to cover off the first 50 games with the same five starters, each of the Jays’ quintet has legitimate reasons not to be bumped, either because of contract, via performance, or in most cases, both.

Kevin Gausman ($21M for 2023; 2-3, 3.14 ERA; 63IP): The 32-year-old righthander has become the ace, over the first 50 games. He is under contract through 2026, for a total of $70M.  

Chris Bassitt ($18M for 2023; 5-3, 3.03 ERA; 62.1IP): The 34-year-old righthander posted a streak of 28 scoreless innings, which included just two runners reaching third-base. He is under contract through 2025, for a total of $42M.

Alek Manoah ($0.75M for 2023; 1-4, 5.15 ERA, 50.2 IP): At 25-years-old, the emotional righthander is the once and future ace of the staff. He has not yet reached arbitration and is under team control through 2027. Sending him to the minors will never be a solution.  

Jose Berrios ($15M for 2023; 4-4, 4.22 ERA, 59.2 IP): The 29-year-old righthander has had a bounce-back from his dismal numbers in ’22. He has a track record and a work ethic that suggest his career arc is trending in the right direction. With a history of never missing a start, Berrios is under contract through 2028, for a total of $101M.

Yusei Kikuchi ($10M for 2023; 5-1, 4.08 ERA; 46.1 IP): A few minor adjustments and a tough-guy stubble has turned the 32-year-old lefthander into a reliable fifth starter. Sure, he needs to allow fewer home runs, but he gives you a chance to win on most days. Kikuchi is under contract through 2024, for another $10M.  

How the six-man rotation might best be used.

The trade deadline is set for August 1. If the Jays are still contending for a wild-card or the division, then they will at that time have locked in the results of any attempts to bolster the roster in time for the final two months and 54 games, that starts on Aug. 2.

The bottom line is that if the Jays still consider themselves in the hunt at the deadline, it makes no sense to trade one of the current starters given their performances thus far and the years of team control. That being the obvious case … and then adding a healthy Ryu are there too many starters? Conundrum!

Solution? On August 2, if Ryu is healthy, give him that start against the O’s at home. It would be his first since June 1, 2022. That Aug. 2 assignment would then mark Day 1 of the special six-man rotation, with 61 days and 54 games left on the schedule.

Ideally, the clear vision here is that working around and using the seven off-days built into the schedule and keeping the existing five starters on a new rotation of at least five days rest between starts, Ryu might only be asked to make seven starts in those 61 days (Aug. 2-8-27; Sept. 6-13-24 and Oct. 1). Three of the current five starters would then have nine scheduled starts, with the other two in at 10.  

That Ryu calendar would also make him available as a second lefthander, providing length out of the bullpen between starting assignments, Aug. 8-27 and from Sept. 13-24. Plus, the built-in extra days of rest for the existing five starters would serve to keep them fresh, in addition to giving manager John Schneider and pitching coach Pete Walker some appreciated flexibility if one of their guys needs an extra day off or tweaks something. The people likely to be upset with the plan might be the car service that regularly brings Jays emergency starters back and forth from Buffalo.

Here are some career numbers to consider for days of rest. The six starters on the Jays’ staff, once Ryu returns, have been 127-91, 3.67 ERA in 342 starts with five days rest. Are 132-109, 3.95 ERA in 355 starts with four days rest. The biggest beneficiaries career-wise from the Jays’ group have been Gausman and Bassitt.  

Remember, this column prefers not to predict but to advise. Whether written for The Star, or now as griffsthepitch.com content, we have always been about suggesting what should happen and not necessarily, what will happen. But in the case of this suggestion of a modified six-man rotation, the pros seem to far outweigh the cons.