Vlad Guerrero Jr growing as 2-strike hitter

But Vlad needs help around him in the lineup

In the midst of Vlad Guerrero’s jaw-slackening 22-game heater, that began 29 games ago, the question always seemed, why do teams continue pitching to him? Why not treat the Jays’ most dangerous weapon with the same respect and fear that Blue Jays’ manager John Schneider treats the Yankees’ Aaron Judge. The Jays have walked Judge intentionally five times, including once with nobody on base? In fact, that treatment and respect of Guerrero Jr may be starting and Vlad will need to adjust.

The Cubs over the three games of the weekend series at Wrigley Field, kept Vlad to a 1-for-12 performance, with only a bases-empty double, two walks and two strikeouts. The poster-child moment for Vlad’s struggle in the series, for the way the Cubs, surprisingly, handled the hottest hitter in baseball, came with two outs in the ninth, a one-run lead in the middle game of the series. Jorge Lopez fed him two sliders just off the plate, with the righthanded slugger swinging and missing. With an 0-2 count, the catcher set up even farther outside and Vlad flailed and missed to end the game. That has to become a learning moment for Vlad.

Over those three games, the Cubs threw Vlad 32 strikes within his 14 plate appearances. He looked at nine of them called, fouled off seven, swung and missed at six and put 10 others in play. All the while he seemed to be chasing more pitches clearly outside the strike zone than he had before arriving in the Windy City. He needs to adjust, now, because the reality is that the combination of Alejandro Kirk, Spencer Horwitz and Ernie Clement behind him is not exactly Murderer’s Row.

However Vlad’s amazing 2-strike stats since July 14       

Despite Vlad’s struggles in Chicago, here are some amazing 29-game totals for the Blue Jays’ superstar, beginning with his 22-game hitting streak, starting on July 14, the day before the All-Star break.

Major-league hitters will tell you how difficult it is to bat with two strikes. Most numbers are on the major-league Interstate. Guys are changing speeds, changing locations, changing movement. Mere mortals can’t imagine the challenge.

But, Vlad has figured something out. Over his last 29 games, Guerrero Jr has seen 130 pitches with 2-strikes. He is 24-for-48-.500, with seven doubles, a triple, three homers, five walks, 12 Ks and a sacrifice fly. His OPS in 54 plate appearances with two strikes is 1.412, with a slash line of .500/.575/.875.

Breaking Vlad’s numbers down even further, over those 29 games, when pitchers reach two strikes with Guerrero Jr, it breaks down to: 49 balls and 81 strikes; 32 foul balls; 10 swing-and-miss; two called third strikes; 5 walks. Of his 38 balls in play on those 81 strikes with 2 strikes, there have been 24 hits and a sac fly.

This is the type of eye-opening stretch that, if it continues to the end of the current season, will earn Vlad Guerrero Jr. an elite MLB contract. The bottom line is that it’s a contract that should, by all rights, be offered by the Blue Jays, early in this off-season before he has a chance to test free-agency after 2025. There are solid reasons, other than simply in the batter’s box that say signing Vlad is important to the franchise.

Three reasons to sign Vlad long-term

1-Every contending team needs to build around at least one home-grown player, otherwise it’s a team of mercenaries with no ties to the community. In this case, the community is an entire country. Don’t try for the home-town discount either. He wants to be here, but don’t take advantage of that. Give the man his money.

2-Consider that if you were to trade Guerrero Jr. for a four-player package you would be looking, among those coming back, for an emerging young player to post Vlad-like numbers for the next 10 years. Wait! You already have Vlad to do that and at 25-years-old, he is already younger than any of Spencer Horwitz, Bo Bichette, Ernie Clement, Alejandro Kirk, Davis Schneider and Daulton Varsho.

3-Face it, the Blue Jays fanbase needs reason to believe in 2025 as being a quick return to contending and thus, an early off-season signal to purchase those expensive tickets that have resulted from the $400-million stadium/ballpark renovations. Signing Vlad early could serve as a beacon of hope for disgruntled fans and for sceptical teammates and free-agents not quite sure about the direction of a front office that has had nine years to prove itself. Remember when Jose Bautista was a recruiter. Vlad has friends and look at the NBA model of superstar recruitment.