The Importance of being Gausman
Blue Jays in order to be contenders need true rotation ace
Within the walls of major-league baseball clubhouses, they realize it’s possible for teams to remain middle-of-the-pack, on the fringes of playoff hopeful, simply by fielding a rotation with four competitive starting pitchers, guys that keep you in games for 5-7 innings. But, at that point, if those pluggers have done their job, managers must rely upon runs and offence to make the difference. This formula leaves teams open to losing streaks while winning streaks become a roll of the dice.
However, to be a legitimate, self-confident, late-into-October contender, you will need a true ace to step up from among your your Top-4 starters, athletes that when they toe the rubber, 25 teammates expect they are going to win that night. Toronto’s Kevin Gausman is reaching for that similar, lightning-rod, status as an MLB No. 1 starter. Truth is the Blue Jays rotation has not had a true ace for a while, if you want to be objective. They have been merely competitive for 162 games over the last three years.
Some starting pitchers enter the season already as “the man” for their team before even throwing a pitch in anger. Others emerge from amongst their brothers-in-arms, as somewhat of a pleasant surprise, early in a season and, by the end of May or June, moving forward, carry that aura to the mound every time they are handed the ball. The Yankees can boast Max Fried. The Tigers have Tarik Skubal. The Red Sox rely on Garrett Crochet. They came into 2025 already with great expectations.
Other current American League starting pitchers that seem to be on the way to grabbing that rotation-ace status with their own teams, at least for the current season, but hoping it continues down the road, are Hunter Brown of the Astros, Nate Eovaldi of the Rangers, Kris Bubic or Cole Ragans of the Royals and Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez of the Twins. The Mariners, by all rights, should be included, but are unique in that two of their potential “true aces” in the AL’s deepest starting quintet, have been on the IL for much of the early season and are just now returning to the mound.
Why should Gausman be included in that group, even if it’s at the back end of the elite? If you’ve been paying attention (Leafs fans are forgiven) the Jays offence has struggled, but Gausman is becoming the Jays starter that whenever he is scheduled, teammates expect their team win, no matter who he is pitted against. The 2025 season did not start out that way for the 34-year-old, in his third season north of the border. He was one of a group of five, that, at the timer, included Max Scherzer, but Gausman has stepped up and after besting Jacob deGrom and the Rangers on Monday, in Arlington, check out these recent Gaus numbers.
In his last five starts, covering the month of May, Gausman is 3-1, 2.84 ERA, pitching 32.0 innings, allowing one walk with 33 strikeouts. He has two bad starts for the year in which he allowed 12 earned runs in 8.1 innings. Absent those contra-outings, his numbers reflect a 5-3 record with a 2.34 ERA, averaging 7.1 innings per outing.
Gausman’s stuff and command have stepped up. H has thrown his four-seam fastball (94.5 mph) 54.2% of the time and a devastating splitter (86 mph) 36.6% of all pitches. The rest have been sliders…with less success but mostly for show. Opponent batting average has been .157 vs. the splitter and .224 against the fastball. The difference recently, as he heads towardsJays ace-dom has been command and sequencing, locating the fastball both at the top and the bottom of the zone, producing far more FB swings and misses up and called strikes down, than were managed a year ago, leading to his going deeper in games, helping preserve an exhausted bullpen.
While Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt have remained in that “consistently competitive” group of AL starters, and Scherzer has just three innings, manager John Schneider needs more from No. 4 Bowden Francis, with the No. 5 role remaining a mysterious mish-mash of openers and long relief, fingers-crossed carrying the team to late innings, with a chance to win. But it’s become apparent Gausman’s the one.
What about that struggling Jays offence?
In addition to a starting ace in the rotation to contend, as outlined above, legit teams need two hitters that don’t have to necessarily carry the offence, but step up consistently in clutch situation with the game on the line and are able to produce.
Understanding the reality that hitting in major-league baseball is a game of failure, this two-man suggestion is not insistence that the clutch gene must overcome all else, but it’s why contending teams need at least two big bats to share the burdens of success and failure. In fact, there will be others that unexpectedly respond to the challenge of the moment, but for the Jays, it must be Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr.
How does one gauge? One way is to have a quick look at the Jays first 55 games of 2025, identifying only Jays’ go-ahead RBIs in the seventh inning or later, those moments when fans are hand-wringing, perched on the edge of their seats anxiously waiting for a hero to step up. Here are the 55-game results.
Overall, the team has had 15 go-ahead RBIs in late innings, or extras. Bichette leads the team with three, April 1 vs. the Nats, April 9 at Boston and, finally, with his two-run pinch-hit blast at Texas on May 28. Next on the Jays’ clutch, late-RBI list, tied at two, are Alejandro Kirk, Nathan Lukes and Myles Straw. The remaining six clutch ribbies from the seventh inning on, include one apiece for George Springer, Anthony Santander, Addison Barger, Daulton Varsho, Ernie Clement … and Vlad.
Granted, there have been many game-on-the-line situations where in those late-and-clutch instances, teams have chosen to pitch around the Jays highest-paid, most talented hitter, but Vlad needs do it more often, as do Santander and Andres Gimenez.
How mediocre has the Jays’ offence been? At the one-third mark of the ’25 season, projecting current individual numbers over a full season, here are what the final Blue Jays offensive leaders would look like: AVG.-Kirk .284; R-Guerrero Jr 93; H-Bichette 186; 2B-Bichette 48; HR-Varsho 24; RBI-Bo 75; BB-Vlad 102; K-Santander 156; SB-Springer 21; OPS-Vlad .806.
PLEASE NOTE: The next episode of Exit Philosophy podcast with Griff and Mal Romanin will be recorded on Tuesday, June 3.