The Blue Jays slim chances to keep Bo Bichette
Where he will sign as a Top 3 free agent not even Bo knows
We have all have had friends or co-workers that privately complain about their jobs, bringing up, in off the record conversation, perceived slights from above, lack of appreciation, the desire for more compensation and the basic need to move on and start fresh, somewhere else. Then those same friends end up staying in their situation, improving a few things, but finding a certain comfort in familiarity.
That is the conundrum, will he stay or will he go, in which Bo Bichette now finds himself, torn between exciting free-agent possibilities, really his first and only chance at a huge, I’m set-for-life contract. It could still be with the Blue Jays, his former employer for all 10 of his pro years, but also with a chance to make a lot more money, become a bigger star with a new team, in a new city. Tough decision, but it’s win-win .
Anyone who has had access on a daily basis and paid attention to Bichette in the Jays clubhouse, at spring training and during the season, over the past few campaigns, watching and listening to him year-after-year, in quiet moments when maybe he felt nobody was noticing, in fact, ever since the charismatic kid with the fab flow first showed up in the majors at the 2019 trade deadline. They have seen a quiet evolution.
Bo began as a talented rookie, forever linked to and just behind his highly touted friend, Vlad Guerrero Jr. It was an offence first skillset, with his defence being a constant work in progress. But in the seven years since that July Day in Kansas City, while his talent and understanding of the game grew, he had morphed into a player with a confident attitude that, at times, seemed tired of being in the shadow of his uber-talented teammate. There was a time last off-season when the discussion was which one between Bichette or Guerrero would the Jays reward with a huge multi-year contract. The thought was they could sign one or the other, but not both.
The Jays seemed to choose Guerrero Jr. rewarding him with his 14-year extension and $500-million price tag. At tghat point, observers thought what Vince Carter said after his slam dunk competition, “It’s over!” Likely even Bo believed it. But what if it’s not?
It’s a very subtle possibility he will return. Nothing Bichette said with his words or his body language in the second half of the season and at the World Series has changed that feeling. Even Bo doesn’t know. There’s what he says when asked about his future and there’s reading between the lines. After he was activated, playing a huge role in the Blue Jays path to game 180 (18 post-season) and being inches away from a World Series championship in the ninth inning, things may have changed.
Bo was desperate to play the Fall Classic, even though he was, clearly, still hobbled by the wonky knee that was his own fault back at Yankee Stadium in September, sliding knees first into a catcher’s unforgiving shin pads. After beating the Mariners in the ALCS, manager John Schneider recounted how Bo came to them and said he was willing to do anything, including DH and second-base. When Bo was originally hurt, at first it was Ernie Clement playing short, but when Andres Gimenez became healthy, he slid over and was a far superior defensive option. We all know how much this front office loves run prevention.
Gimenez is signed through 2029. He will be playing shortstop for the Jays immediate future. If Bichette is willing to move over and play second-base fulltime, like Marcus Semien did between the A’s and Jays, then that would seem to be the only way the Jays would be interested in re-upping him. They would have to pay him shortstop money.
“We’ll see,” GM Ross Atkins said when asked if the idea of improved defence with Gimenez at short will play into negotiations with Bo. “The great thing about our current alignment is we have flexibility, beyond how it impacts Bo, beyond how it impacts (Gimenez). We have multiple players that can play multiple positions and that’s a good starting point.”
Atkins is referring to the fact that Ernie Clement can play second, third and short. Gimenez can play second and short. Addison Barger can play right field or third base. Davis Schneider can play second base or left field. George Springer and Anthony Santander can both play corner outfield and DH.
So just do it, right? It’s not that easy. It says here that there is a Blue Jays team strategy and it suggests that Bo and his reps will be allowed to explore the free-agent market and if they find the deal they are looking for, God bless them, but if they don’t then they can come back and talk, unless some major deal for the Jays, happens in the meantime. That could already be the team/agent understanding.
Okay, let’s examine the market for Bichette and which teams are likely in the running, plus how much he might be looking at in term and dollars. It should be noted that from amnong the Top 50 Total Value contracts in history (Cot’s Baseball Contracts), headed to this off-season, 12 are shortstops.
TOP 12 SS TOTAL VALUE CONTRACTS IN HISTORY (yrs/$$)
1-Francisco Lindor … Mets … 10/$341M
2-Corey Seager … Rangers … 10/$325M
3-Trea Turner … Phils … 11/$300M
4-Bobby Witt Jr. … Royals … 11/$288.8M
5-Xander Bogaerts … Padres … 11/$280M
6-A-Rod … Yankees … 10/$275M
7-A-Rod … Rangers … 10/$252M
8-Carlos Correa … Twins … 6/$200
9-Derek Jeter … Yankees … 10/$189M
10-Wander Franco … Rays … 11/$182M
11-Willy Adames … Giants … 7/$182.4M
12-Dansby Swanson … Cubs … 7/$177M
QUESTION: Where in that listing of highest paid shortstops does Bichette fit? He will be playing ’26 at 28-years-old. You can envision him being offered anywhere from 8-10 years. It can be argued that on that list of expensive shortstops, Bo ranks somewhere in the middle. A-Rod is on there twice. His first contract with the Rangers in 2001 was 10 years, with an AAV of $25-million. A-Rod was ahead of his time. Some experts suggest Bo should be pencilled in just north of the Adames deal with the Giants last winter. In any case, Bo’s deal will likely begin with a two.
MLB TEAMS THAT HAVE ALREADY INKED $200M+ DEALS:
Following is the group of MLB teams that might, judging by previous spending habits, be potentially considered for a deal the size of which Bo is seeking. History. There have been 19 teams that have negotiated contracts of more than $200-million. We’ll start with teams with the most such lucrative contracts.
$200M+ Contracts (19 teams): Yankees (6) … Dodgers (5) … Padres (4) … Angels (3) … Mets (3) … Rangers (3) … Diamondback (2) … Phillies (2) … With 1: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Royals, Cards, Tigers, Nationals, Reds, Brewers, Braves, M’s, Twins.
Zero career Total Value contracts of $200M+ (11): Cubs, Astros, A’s, Orioles, White Sox, Guardians, Rockies, Marlins, Pirates, Giants, Rays.
For those teams that have never offered a Total Value contract of more than $200M, those teams are not likely to suddenly go with Bo Bichette as their first such deal. Of the 11 teams that have had just one contract in team history of that value, eight of those have given it as a reward to one homegrown player within the organization. Examples are Vlad, Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Christian Yelich and Joey Votto.
The Jays, thusly, are on the short list of teams that seem ready, willing and able to offer Bichette the type of money he’s looking for. LIST TO PAY ATTENTION TO: Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Mets, Rangers, D’backs, Phillies. Remove the Rangers, already with Seager and Semien and that leaves six possibilities, plus the Jays. A few of those might also try and ask Bo to switch positions. Padres, Mets, Phils.
In any case, don’t look for any quick decision in the Bo Bichette free-agency and don’t count the Blue Jays out quite yet. It once looked like his departure was a near certainty, but it depends now on Bichette and his comfort level and if he really thinks this team can get back to the World Series and if he really wanted to play the rest of his career with Vlad.
There’s one caveat about the grass always being greener elsewhere. Does anybody know whatever happened to Robin when he quit hanging around with Batman?
As a fan, Bo is extremely hard to read. Mal has said for quite some time that it's almost fait accompli that Bo is gone, whether that's Bo's desire or that of the Front Office, I don't know. I think you are right that the only way Bo can stay is if he moves to 2B. He's a fantastic hitter, but a flawed player defensively and in sprint speed (not sure how that translates to baserunning metrics). Fair or not, he has also become somewhat injury prone.
But if they let him go, they HAVE to get a significant impact bat somehow. Relying on a bounce back from Santander and continued production from Springer won't be enough.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out...in the end we'll learn how much the team values Bo based on whether they sign him for big bucks to play 2B or let him go.
The Yankees can certainly offer him the requisite money to replace Volpe at SS. But offence has never been a problem with the Yankees; by contrast, the D was a big failing, badly exposed by the Jays in the ALDS. For the most part, Blue Jays fans were quite easy on Bo for his defensive shortcomings. I wonder if it will be the same in the Bronx?
The Mets are set with Lindor at SS and I doubt they bid THAT aggressively for Bichette to play 2nd. They'll still be tough on Bo if he doesn't perform and it's unclear that the Mets are even the best team in the NL East, let alone the NL as a whole.
The World Series champion Dodgers are not going to replace Betts at SS, so if they went after Bo, it would likely be to play 2B for them. Maybe the Padres sign him to replace Bogaerts, but that's a lot of payroll for them and I doubt they'll add much more.
Taken in aggregate, I could envisage Bichette making shortstop-like money but still end up at 2nd base. The grass is not always greener and Bo might find that it's far more comfortable staying in Toronto and playing 2B for a genuine World Series contender.
Let's see. The Jays might decide that they are better off with Clement at 2B, Barger at 3rd and signing someone like Bellinger as a big LH bat for the OF. It's probably safe to assume that Santander will revert to something closer to what he was with Baltimore, so the combination of another big bat, plus a revival from Tony Taters, and the Jays might find themselves in a stronger position than simply re-signing Bichette.