Small ball showing up as Blue Jays Achilles Heel
Stolen bases and speed make an impact for low payroll teams
There is work to be done to fix what ails the Blue Jays. It took just six innings in the opening game of a series vs. the first-place Rays on Monday night at Rogers Centre for the Jays to expose to fans what has become an obvious Achilles Heel, defending the stolen base, negating team speed and handling small-ball. The first six innings vs. the Rays was an alarming two hours of Jays discombobulation that cast doubt on their ability not just to defend against speed, but also the ability to defend their AL crown.
The Rays, as currently constructed, really have only three traditionally solid hitters to throw out there on a nightly basis, usually batting 2-3-4 in the lineup. That trio includes third-baseman Junior Caminero, first-baseman Jonathan Aranda and DH Yandy Diaz. The other eight position players, aside from their two no-name catchers, are pedestrian and interchangeable whenever they step in the batter’s box – but become unpredictable, dangerous and threatening once they reach base. The Blue Jays for two series, six games, have been forced to come to grips with that concept, seeming to tighten and struggle against the Rays threateningly aggressive gene.
Monday night’s game was a nightmare for the Jays. They had been swept at the Trop just six days earlier, but now had the Rays on their home turf. Maybe that would change outcomes. Maybe not. Then came the six-inning, two- hour unravel with their ace, Kevin Gausman on the hill. Here’s how it all went down.
FIRST INNING: The Rays uniquely skilled left fielder, Chandler Simpson, gave an early preview of the havoc he would wreak on this night. He lined a 1-2 pitch off the raised glove of Gausman that bounced slowly towards first base. With Simpson hauling down the line, Gausman rushed and fumbled with his barehand and glove and stumbled to a no-play. Infield hit.
With Simpson on the move running from first, Caminero lobbed a soft single to right, with the runner cruising into third. Aranda drove a medium depth sac-fly to Yohendrick Pinango. In truth it didn’t matter how deep the flyball was going to end up being, Simpson was always going to tag and score.
SECOND INNNING: The speedy but light-hitting shortstop, Taylor Walls, surprised Daulton Varsho with a deep drive over his head that one-hopped back off the wall. The Gold Glover knowing the speed of the runner, rushed to compensate for his weak arm and bobbled the ball slightly on the pickup, evenb allowing the lead-footed catcher, Hunter Feduccia, to score from first on Wall’s triple.
They weren’t done with their intimidation tour. With the contact play on for the Rays, even with nobody out in the inning, Simpson laced a grounder to Vlad Guerrero Jr, who made a perfect throw to the plate to nail Walls who had left as soon as he read groundball. That Vlad to Brandon Valenzuela defensive gem was the good news. The bad news was that it left Simpson at first with only one out.
The Rays offensive catalyst stole second, went to third on a groundball that might otherwise have been an inning-ending double-play and scored on Aranda’s single.
FOURTH INNING: Simpson’s most interesting and devastating contribution of the night began with two outs and nobody on. He chopped a slow bouncer between first and second base. Vlad, who often plays first base like a puppy chasing a tennis ball, poached to his right to glove the ball and found nobody covering first. He seemed to expect that Gausman could beat the lightning-fast outfielder to the bag. Didn’t happen. The best course of action would have been for Vlad to turn and head to first base, allowing Ernie Clement to attempt a quick transfer and maybe an out.
Then the inning became truly interesting. Gausman tried two half-hearted pickoff attempts. One additional step-off or pickoff attempt and MLB rules dictate it would be an automatic balk. Gausman followed with the unthinkable. He committed two balks on the same play — only one of them called. First, he flinched while in the stretch position, with all of the runner, batter and dugout yelling and pointing to mound. A confused Gausman then stepped off for a third time. That time the automatic balk was called. John Schneider explained there was actually a strategy.
“Simpson is kind of in a different category than anyone, really,” Schneider explained. “The balk was – we were, actually, going to throw over again. We were waiting for the (pitch) clock to go down. It was the initial (flinch) balk that (the umpires) missed. When everyone was pointing at Kev, for him, it was like, ‘Oh, shit what are you looking at’, so he stepped off. But we were throwing over again in that situation, so it definitely puts pressure on you.”
Basically, in Schneider’s own words, they were hoping that Simpson as the pitch clock wound down to zero, would be confident the Jays would not throw over again and that Gausman might catch him leaning in anticipation and steal an out on the pickoff. Bottom line is the Jays were willing to take a balk, because they knew he would likely be safe, if stealing the base, anyway. That is respect.
Still with two outs, but Simpson now perched on second and with Caminero stepping in, on the second pitch, he stole third and scored when Brandon Valenzuela’s throw sailed and tailed out into left field for an error.
SIXTH INNING: Simpson completed his shoulder-shrug hat-trick of infield singles, lacing a grounder over the mound headed to centre. But Andres Gimenez glided gracefully to his left and gloved the ball just to the right of second base. But knowing who was running, the Gold Glover double-clutched inside his glove and the quicksilver runner sprinted across the bag.
“Teams like Tampa, Cleveland play the same way,” manager Schneider opined. “You’re very aware of their intent. I mean, not everyone is built that way, but it’s something that every team tries to do. It puts pressure on the defence and mistakes happen.”
TEAMS BORN TO RUN
Baseball has forever been a copycat game. When the big boppers were bopping big in the late ‘90s and early ’00s, everyone tried to gather players that swung for the fences. But it was rare for low-payroll teams to be able to lure the best sluggers to play in their city. Now, 25 years later, speed and ability to disrupt an opponent comes relatively cheap. Analytics always scoffed at the impact of speed, smallball, stolen bases, bunting-for-hits and taking the extra base. We saw the new-wave possibilities in Rays vs. the Jays, more specifically, that one stretch of two hours and six innings.
Consider these stolen base facts through May 13.
The Top 8 MLB teams in stolen bases (Marlins, Guardians, Rays, Nationals, Brewers, Yankees, Padres and Pirates) are a combined 191-151. Of those eight teams, five are among the bottom eight in team payroll, averaging 21st overall in spending.
The Bottom 8 teams in stolen bases (Giants, Jays, Astros, Tigers, Rangers, O’s, Mets and D’backs) are a combined 151-193. Of those eight teams, seven are among the top 14 in team payroll, averaging 9th overall in spending.
It’s not going to get any easier for the Jays. Teams are paying attention to current video and recent history and the Jays troubles defending what the Rays bring to the table in terms of aggressiveness and speed will not be overlooked. As defending AL champs, teams are no longer planning ahead to future series, looking past the Jays.
“That’s definitely noticeable,” Schneider said. “We talked about it at spring training. Teams are coming in giving you their best shot. From being the hunter to the hunted, yeah, real thing. To me, that’s just mindset. It’s mentality on how you play.
“I think we can all look at each other and say we can probably be a little bit more urgent, if you will. What I’ve been saying to the guys is, ‘What you’ve made yourself, what you did last year to become x player, you have to then push the envelope to continue to be x player, or better, as opposed to just assuming that the same results are going to happen.’
“It’s just natural baseball. Teams are going to dig in on you a little bit more. Teams are going to prepare a little bit differently. They’re going to try to expose holes, so you have to stay ahead of it. You can’t just expect it to be what it was at its peak.”
The league is adjusting to the Jays. They are utilizing speed and aggressive baserunning. You have already seen it used vs. the Jays by more teams than just the Rays. Can they find a way to now adjust back?