Setting a target win total for the AL wild-card

Would 91 wins be enough to reach the AL dance floor in October

For the past month, at Griff’sThePitch.com and Exit Philosophy, we have been promoting the idea of determining a wild-card win total upon which the Blue Jays should be focused, not the daily angst-ing over the performance of other teams currently in heated competition for the final two spots. As that arbitrary win total, we chose the number 91. That simple decision has promoted much discussion of whether it will be enough in a season in which there are currently eight AL teams above .500, all believing they have a chance to get a foot in the door, which is all it takes.

History of 91 wins as an AL wild-card

This is the 12^th season in which MLB has gone to multiple wild-cards, since the change was made in time for the 2012 season. We will exclude the 2020 season, which was pandemic-shortened, and included five wild-cards. That reduces the study to 10 years. The two wild-card system was expanded to three in 2022, therefore for the previous nine multiple wildcard seasons we will add what is a theoretical third qualifier for those seasons 2012-19, 2021, projecting if there were three wild-cards and how many would have been qualifiers with 91 wins.

Of those 30 wild-card teams from 10 years, 13 of them had 91 wins or fewer, with 10 of those actually qualifying for their post-seasons and three more hypothetically making it as a projected third option for the years 2012-13 and 2018. In ’22, the first season with three actual wild-cards, it was the Jays with 92, the M’s, 90 and the Rays with 86.

Thus, in ‘22, the first year of sending to the playoffs three non-division-winners, there were two post-season teams with fewer than 91 wins and the Jays with 92. Why did that happen? A partial answer to the lower wildcard win totals lies in more sustained competition among hopeful teams going deeper into September and the reduction of September rosters down to 28, max. That leads to less playing out the string by also-rans.

Consider then, that this year the eight teams currently above .500 will likely feel they are still in the post-season hunt. Two of those squads are already in strong position heading into the final month, including the Orioles and Twins, each of which will likely be their division winners. The rest of the ’23 AL playoff field will likely come from among the Rays, M’s, Astros, Rangers, Blue Jays and Red Sox.

Of those six listed contenders, three are from the AL West and the only certainty is that one of those is going to win the division. That leaves the Jays in a group of five that are competing for three AL wild-card berths.

Comparing the remaining strength of schedules      

Following is a comparison of the remaining schedules for the six contenders that will include the AL West title, plus three wild-cards (excluding remaining schedules of O’s and Twins, however including them as opponents for purposes of this study). We are including games remaining vs. other members of the AL’s Elite 8, heading into Saturday’s action. The fact of not having to include the Yankees is mind-blowing.

Rays (22):  Red Sox (3), M’s (4), @Twins (3), @O’s (4), Jays (3), @Red Sox (2), @Jays (3).

M’s (20): *@Reds (3), @Rays (4), *Dodgers (3), @Rangers (3), Astros (3), Rangers (4).   

Astros (12): @Rangers (3), O’s (3), @M’s (3), @D’backs (3).  

Rangers (19): Twins (2), Astros (3), @Jays (4), Red Sox (3), M’s (3), @ M’s (4).

Blue Jays (13): Rangers (4), Red Sox (3), @Rays (3), Rays (3).

Red Sox (18): @Rays (3), O’s (3), @Jays (3), @Rangers (3), Rays (2), @O’s (4).

*NOTE: We have included games remaining vs. NL contenders.

What the Blue Jays need to do to reach the target number 91

From the above charts of the remaining schedule, it is clear that the Jays and Astros have the easiest remaining schedules, many against teams below .500 – although by the time they get to New York, the Yankees may have clawed their way back to break-even … but not quickly enough to contend.

To reach 91 wins, the Jays need to go 17-10 over the final 27 games. Given scheduled off-days, assuming a healthy five-man rotation, that reliable group will have 19 of 27 starts with an extra day’s rest built in, thus pitching on their sixth day.

Yusei Kikuchi and Kevin Gausman will have six more scheduled starts, while Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Hyun Jin Ryu have five each, through Oct. 1.

So, what is one baseline stat that will lead the Jays to the 17 wins they require to reach the 91-victory target. It’s hard to predict what will happen, game-to-game over the final 30 days, but with the proven consistency of the rotation in their ability to lay a 100-pitch floor of competitiveness every day and with the depth of the bullpen (despite the Chad Green Day 1 result), let’s just suggest that the underperforming offence simply has to produce five runs per game. It will help if Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman can return when they are eligible to be reinstated on Sept. 7. The fate of catcher Danny Jansen with the right, middle knuckle fracture is unknown.

If the Jays score five per game, consider that over the last 27 games this year in which the Blue Jays have scored 5-plus runs, they are 23-4.

AL West free-for-all brawl helps Jays

Even conceding one of the three wild-card spots to the resilient Rays, there are three AL West teams battling for the division title and with the Jays for two wildcard spots. Because of that intramural, intra-division rumble, there will be 13 guaranteed losses that must be distributed among three teams as they compete for the crown. That;’s an average of 4.2 losses per team and the Jays are already within three losses of all of them., It’s like a NASCAR crash that sees one trailing car sneak through the wreckage for the checkered flag. If the Jays’ goal is WC3, it seems they have the best opportunity to take advantage of the inevitable wreckage wrought by the M’s, Astros and Rangers.

So what is the advice for Blue Jays fans to help maintain final-month sanity? Don’t scoreboard watch and angst every night over every win for other contenders. Instead, watch the Jays, enjoy the beauty of the sport, and begin the countdown to 91 wins. The M’s and Rangers have seven games in the final 10 days. The Jays need to take care of their own business and good things will happen.