Scouting director Shane Farrell discusses Blue Jays ‘24 Amateur Draft

As baseball gets younger draft priorities change

The MLB 2024 Amateur Draft kicks off on Sunday, July 14, in Fort Worth, Texas, as an important chapter of All-Star weekend. The Sunday portion of the entry procedure, featuring Rounds 1-2, will be televised, while the remainder of the 20-round event will follow on Monday and Tuesday. The Cleveland Guardians were fortunate winners of an eight-team lottery and will select first overall, while the Blue Jays pick No. 20, the same as they did in 2023, at which time they drafted Florida high school shortstop Arjun Nimmala, currently at Class-A Dunedin, in the Florida State League.

Scouting director, Shane Farrell, on Wednesday, took to a Zoom call to stickhandle his way through questions from Jays’ media members. He spoke in vague terms about the club’s drafting philosophy, about his personal learning progress each season he has been in charge, since 2019, the need for a close relationship between scouting and player development and the reality that the MLB draft has always been a crapshoot, with nothing or nobody being a slam-dunk star.

The reality is the MLB game is getting younger

It has become obvious that the face of major-league baseball is shifting away from the 30-somethings, towards kids in their early to mid-20s, many of them products of the June draft, many of them fast-tracked through a streamlined minor-leagues, most of them bringing rookie mistakes with them … and it shows on most nights, in most cities. Baseball is ready to live with lost fundamentals in exchange for eye-popping athleticism and dugouts full of pitchers throwing high 90s (mph) fastballs, with breaking pitches shaped in laboratories in Florida and Arizona. It would seem a priority these days to use the first few rounds of the draft to try and pinpoint prospects who can rush through the minors to help as soon as possible.

Consider the fact that emerging from the 2023 draft, there have already been four first-round selections to make their debuts for teams that drafted them. Consider RH Paul Skenes, who after just 10 starts will represent the Pirates at the All-Star Game. Then there’s Angels first-baseman, Nolan Schanuel, who was first promoted last season, outfielder Wyatt Langford of the Rangers, who made the team out of spring training and RH Hurston Waldrep, given two June starts for the Braves. Meanwhile there are other free agents from last winter, in their 30s, littering the landscape. So what is the sense of urgency for Farrell and the Jays to draft college players that are a year or two away from helping the Jays reload from what is becoming a disastrous ’24 season?

“I think each player’s path to the major leagues is unique,” Farrell began. “And to assume somebody is fast moving, without getting your hands on them and understanding both their physical skillset, but also what makes that person tick and learning more about the human being, I think that makes it challenging.

“We do need to make sure that once that player is getting near to the big leagues that they are able to stick in the big leagues. I think that’s the organization’s responsibility to make sure that those players are ready, both physically, fundamentally and mentally to not only appear in the big leagues, but to stick and to have a long career.”

There is no denying the July 30 trade deadline puts Mark Shapiro and his GM in a crisis situation. If you act like traditional sellers and trade away contracts that are set to land those players in free agency at the end of ’24, who will replace them. There are no sure things at AAA-Buffalo or AA-New Hampshire to come up and fill the vacancies, especially in the rotation and the bullpen. That problem would seem to lend a certain direction to the Jays’ draft-day decisions, at least in Rounds 1-2.

“That’s been a by-product of some of the moves that we’ve made to make our major-league team as competitive as possible and to make playoff runs,” Farrell admitted of the current paucity of upper-level prospects. “We’ve traded the likes of (RHP Adam) Kloffenstein and (Dutch RHP) Sem Robberse for major-league support and there’s obviously a need and desire to keep backfilling with internal prospects and I think this (’24) draft allows us to do so and we’re looking forward to that opportunity.”

With every team having access to the same metrics, analytics and information, able to easily and accurately compare the numbers of high schoolers in Nebraska to major-college players in California, what separates a good organization, to correctly wrangle their own solid picks away from the rest?

“It’s continuing to improve our own internal processes, the way that we’re deploying our scouts out in the field, the way that we’re connecting with our player development. Our player development programs and bringing those two sides together to form a path and a plan for each potential amateur prospect that we’re bringing into the system. The ability to connect your players development group and align both player development and scouting is only going to benefit you for the long run. That’s an effort we have made internally. Those are areas where we’re really trying to see some improvement.”

So what is the talent pool like this year, for a draft in which there is no clear-cut No. 1 like the Pirates’ pheenom, Skenes a year ago. For teams like the Jays who need immediate help, or ASAP, should college players be the priority?

“We’re seeing a lot of strength at the top of the draft, especially with the college position players,” Farrell said. “We’re seeing a little less length (and depth), relative to last year, on, maybe, the high school position player group and maybe (we’ll see) some of the high school pitching, potentially, that could sneak into the first round., So, it’s been a little bit different relative to last year’s class, but all-in-all another strong class in our eyes. I think we’re excited about our potential options at Pick 20.”

So, who are some of the possibilities that may be available when the commissioner places the Blue Jays on the clock on Sunday night?

Possible Targets for the Blue Jays with Pick 20

Interesting that Farrell mentioned college position players and a couple of high school pitchers as strengths of the first round. Is that what the Jays are thinking or just a little gamesmanship and misdirection for those drafting ahead of them? Here are some possible picks.

RHP Brody Brecht; University of Iowa…The 21-year-old went to Iowa as a wide receiver, but after a redshirt season and a disappointing second year, he turned his full attention to baseball. In the spring of ‘23, he held opponents to a .134 average, but worked with coaches and altered his delivery, producing a slow start to his ’24 season. This is the sort of project with upside that the Jays enjoy. His control and command need a lot of work, but he touches triple-digits on his fastball and his combination fastball/slider has been compared, stuff-wise, to Skenes (minus Livvy Dunne and with less control and command of his repertoire).

3B/OF Seaver King; Wake Forest University…The righthanded hitter played four positions, including third base and centre field in his one year at Wake. Has above average speed and good bat to ball skills, although pitch selection could use refinement.

OF/RHP Carson Benge; Oklahom St. University…The 21-year-old missed the ’22 season with Tommy John surgery and has since coming back has focused on the outfield. Has solid lefthanded power, quickness more than speed and a strong outfield arm. Obviously a fan of Shohei Ohtani, he boasts a 96 mph fastball and an effective slider.   

Others in the Jays No. 20 Overall Range:

OF Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina. B-T R-R; OF Ryan Waldschmidt, Univ. of Kentucky B-T R-R; 3B Cam Smith, Fla. St. B-T R-R.  

Here is a short list of recent #20 overall draft picks to make MLB:

2020 Brewers … OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA)

2019 M’s … RHP George Kirby (Elon University)

2018 Twins … OF Trevor Larnach (Oregon St.)

2017 Mets … LHP David Peterson (Oregon)

2016 Dodgers … SS Gavin Lux (High School, Wisconsin)