Rotation Questions Remain for Blue Jays with arrival of Shane Bieber

Jays drop opener 9-3 to Royals thanks to anemic offence

Over the past six games, including Friday night’s 9-3 loss to the Royals, the Blue Jays have allowed a total of 57 runs, going 1-5 and looking anything but the AL East division leaders over the now re-stocked Yankees. The Jays’ defence has not provided its usual spark, while the offence has often been impatient. The bullpen has been inconsistent and the starting pitchers, usually the most reliable aspect of this still-in-first-place team, have perhaps showed their age and a hint of fatigue as the marathon reaches its home stretch.

It’s basic baseball math. Six does not go into five when it comes to a starting rotation. That will be the conundrum facing the Blue Jays and their manager John Schneider if and when newly acquired starter Shane Bieber is able to continue his upward rehab arc and be ready to join the major league club’s starting group after two more starts for the AAA-Bisons.

There are six current Jays pitchers that have earned the right, either by numbers this year or via career accomplishments, to start games and be in the team’s rotation with 51 games and 58 days remaining on the schedule. But with upcoming off-days and five men already in place and when the newly arrived sixth man is righthander Shane Bieber, obtained from the Guardians on deadline day for minor-league righthander Khal Stephen there are no certain solutions to going with either five or six starters.

Fact is Bieber has not appeared in a major-league game since April 2, 2024, undergoing Tommy John surgery to his right elbow that same month. It has taken the 30-year-old California native 16 months to reach this point in his recovery, where he likely needs just two more minor-league starts to earn his exit from the 60-day IL, to join a team that leads the best division in baseball and has a chance to go deep into October.

But it’s a numbers game and nothing is for certain. Bieber will make his fifth rehab start for the Bisons on Sunday and, if all goes well, likely be handed the ball again on Friday, Aug. 8. Tough decisions will have to be made. The existing quintet of Jays starters includes Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt and Eric Lauer. Add Bieber and you have six possible starters that combine, over their careers, for four Cy Young Awards, 18 Top 10 in Cy voting, 15 all-star games, seven Top 25 MVPs and a pair of Gold Gloves.

An impressive list of honours for this Jays group, to be sure. The tough part for Lauer, the youngest by three days to the newcomer, Bieber, is that he has earned none of these MLB accolades. With that in mind and with the 30-year-old lefthander performing as well as any of the others this year, who is it, then, that deserves to be bumped? Or could Schneider, pitching coach Pete Walker and the analytics crew find a way to make six go into five?

“Yeah, we already had that chat,” Schneider said prior to Friday’s game regarding any pending numbers crunch. “They get it. They’re a veteran group and they all deserve to have their start day. Baseball works itself out. First thing is do not be looking over your shoulder.

“The guys are here and they’re established major-league pitchers. And, in a couple of weeks when we have to make a decision, we make a decision using all the information that we have. It’s talking to adults. You’re not explaining this to kids. They get it and they know that they’re on turn for the next couple of times through and we’ll see where we’re at.”

The first thing is for Bieber to finally get through his long and grinding rehab and prove to himself and his new team that he’s ready to join the major-league fray.

I’m most pleased with not thinking about my health,” Bieber said an hour before the game, following a light bullpen prior to his Sunday outing. “That says a lot about how far I’ve come, post-surgery. I’m focused on ramping up to compete here. It’s the only place to be. That’s what I miss. That’s what I strive for. I’m close now. It’s easier said than done to take it one day at a time. To be traded to this team and to be able to make my return to the big leagues that I’ve anticipated so much and to be playing meaningful baseball is all I can ask for.”

While Schneider did not rule out the move to a six-man rotation for the final two months, he pointed out some of the pitfalls of taking veteran players out of their between-start routines and perhaps allowing them too much rest.

“We’ve just begun to start that conversation,” Schneider explained, clearly leaving open the possibility. “And, again, it’s kind of doing what’s best for everyone. Is that what’s best for the bullpen, leaving them a man short. You get an extra arm in September. You have to put that into the equation and what that does to guys’ routines.”

But quite honestly, what type of pitcher would you rather have on your roster with the lead in your division and a chance to earn a first-round bye? Would you rather have one of the six proven starters mentioned above, or an eighth reliever whose maximum value is to eat up four innings per week in a mop-up role. Hands up for the starter.

“We have some off days, so do you want them that well rested, or do you want to keep them a little bit regular,” Schneider continued. “We’ve kind of mapped it out so you could do it either way. But a lot of it will depend on how Shane does in the next couple of outings. It’s a good problem to have. Six-man, there’s not a glaring person that deserves to be demoted or moved, or anything like that. I just think it’s a good problem to have and you deal with it when that time comes.”

Studying the remaining Jays schedule and the current order of the five-man rotation, ther best time to jump Bieber in for Lauer is Aug. 17, which, if he remained healthy, would give him eight total Jays starts, three of them on regular rest. But that would also , in that sticking-with-five scenario, send Lauer to the pen as another lefthander and long man. That would seem to be the preference of the manager at this point in time.

“Yeah, we already had that chat,” Schneider said of a session in his office when Bieber was in the building on Friday afternoon. “They get it. They’re a veteran group and they all deserve to have their start day. Baseball works itself out.

“First thing is do not be looking over your shoulder. You guys are here and you’re established major-league pitchers. And, in a couple of weeks when we have to make a decision, we make a decision using all the information that you have. They get it. It’s talking to adults. You’re not explaining this to kids. They get it and they know that they’re on turn for the next couple of times through and we’ll see where we’re at.”

The key part of that Schneider response is that “baseball works itself out.” It always does. But in the meantime, the Jays are 4-5 in the last nine games and the re-stocked Yankees are hard on their heels.

INJURY UPDATE: OF George Springer was placed on the 7-day concussion IL, backdated to July 29 … C Alejandro Kirk was catching at AAA on a rehab assignment and was 1-for-3 with two RBIs vs. Scranton … 2B Andres Gimenez is running the bases on Saturday then will join the Bisons for games on Tuesday-Wednesday … RH Alek Manoah threw a four-inning simulated complex game, on 69 pitches. RH Yimi Garcia is not yet throwing … RH Bowden Francis was in town but not throwing … RH Nick Sandlin is starting to play catch … OF Anthony Santander is a mystery.