Pre-Season AL East Preview and Projected Order of Finish

As spring camps near, Jays remain atop MLB’s best division

History and numbers can quite easily be used to support the assertion the AL East has been the best division in major-league baseball since 2021. That was, of course, the season following the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. In the five full seasons since Covid-19, the five-member AL East is a combined 276 games above .500. Last year, it was +48. The best of those five dominant seasons was in 2023, which showed the 5-team group with a +88 and three post-season teams.

The powerhouse AL East has now sent a total of 14 teams to the playoffs in the past five seasons, but, surprisingly, has not won a championship in that time, with only the Yankees (2024) and Blue Jays (2025) even advancing to the World Series.

The head-scratching post-season aberration explaining Fall Classic failure could rest in the fact that the annual 162-game schedule, with every intra-division game seeming to bear extra importance, may serve to mentally wear down those East competitors, turning the marathon into more of a six-month sprint. There can be no pacing. The last AL East champion, in fact, was the Red Sox in 2018.

That being said and with most of the top-ranked 2025-26 free-agents signed up and off the board, it may be a good time to offer the first predictions for the AL East, with a very premature, subject to change, projection of an order of finish, first to fifth.

1-Blue Jays … 94-68 in 2025 … Projected ’26 payroll $272.0M (5)

MGR: John Schneider (5^th year)

ROTATION: RH Kevin Gausman … RH Dylan Cease … RH Trey Yesavage … RH Cody Ponce … RH Shane Bieber

BULLPEN TOP 5: CL Jeff Hoffman … RH Yimi Garcia … RH Louis Varland … RH Tyler Rogers … LH Brendon Little

POSITION PLAYERS: C Alejandro Kirk … 1B Vlad Guerrero Jr … 2B Ernie Clement … 3B Kazuma Okamoto …SS Andres Gimenez … LF Anthony Santander … CF Daulton Varsho … RF Addison Barger … DH George Springer.

MAJOR DEPARTURES: SS Bo Bichette … RH Chris Bassitt … 1B Ty France … RH Seranthony Dominguez … IF Isiah Kiner-Falefa … RH Max Scherzer … RH Nick Sandlin.

PREVIEW: Are the current Blue Jays better than the team that took the Dodgers to 11^th inning, Game 7 of the 2025 World Series? Only time and 162 games will tell, but this current Jays roster is surely better than the Jays group that opened the season a year ago. That team had RH Bowden Francis in the rotation, plus RH Max Scherzer, who was injured after making just one start. Don’t forget LH Dick Lovelady as a lefty specialist who has now been released six times in the last 15 months and is currently looking for work. HOW THEY WIN: The Jays need a repeat of the Fountain of Youth performance from George Springer, a legit power hitter revealed in Japanese import Kazuma Okamoto, consistency from a dynamic Addison Barger and a healthy Daulton Varsho. The Jays rolled the dice with Cody Ponce after one great year in Korea and need Shane Bieber to have minimum discomfort in his right forearm and to make 26-plus starts. HOW THEY DON’T: If it turns out Bo Bichette to the Jays is the equivalent in importance of Mitch Marner to the Leafs. If Bieber loses significant time to arm woes that prompted him to surprisingly accept the $16-million player option, when experts thought he could earn more in term and dollars as a free agent. If the Jays ride with Jeff Hoffman as closer and Brendon Little as the primary lefty specialist through rough times and it costs them wins in the first half of the season.

2-Red Sox … 89-73 in 2025 … Projected ’26 payroll $192.1 (10)

MGR: Alex Cora (8^th year)

ROTATION: LH Garrett Crochet … RH Sonny Gray … LH Ranger Suarez … RH Brayan Bello … RH Kutter Crawford/RH Johan Oviedo

BULLPEN TOP 5: CL Aroldis Chapman … RH Garrett Whitlock … RH Jordan Hicks … RH Justin Slaten … RH Zach Kelly

KEY POSITION PLAYERS: C Carlos Narvaez … 1B Willson Contreras … 2B Romy Gonzalez … 3B Marcelo Mayer … SS Trevor Story … LF Jarren Duran … CF Ceddanne Rafaela … RF Roman Anthony … DH Wilyer Abreu.

MAJOR DEPARTURES: 3B Alex Bregman … RH Lucas Giolito … LH Justin Wilson … UT Rob Refsnyder … 1B Nathaniel Lowe … RH Josh Winckowski.

PREVIEW: There is great optimism in Beantown, after much wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth leading into the month of January. Of course, that’s always been the case with Red Sox fans who every year begin as Pollyanna … until they’re Sybil. The Sox have lined up perhaps the best five-man rotation in the AL, adding Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez to Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet. HOW THEY WIN: A healthy stud sophomore in Roman Anthony, plus a stable and reliable Jarren Duran. They seem to have settled the first-base conundrum with a trade for Willson Contreras. HOW THEY DON’T: Can you trust a front office that in 2025 alienated, then gave away Rafael Devers in order to keep Alex Bregman … then had Bregman opt out and leave as a free agent. When will Aroldis Chapman hit the wall of accumulated innings. The 38-year-old has worked 999 pro games since he was 17-years-old and is coming off a feeling-younger-than-ever season worthy of Dorian Gray. They have question marks at third base and designated-hitter.

3-Yankees … 94-68 in 2025 … Projected ’26 payroll $295.8M (3)

MGR: Aaron Boone (9^th year)

ROTATION: LH Max Fried … RH Cam Schlittler … RH Luis Gil … LH Ryan Weathers … RH Will Warren … IL Cole/Rodon/Schmidt

BULLPEN TOP 5: CL David Bednar … RH Camilo Doval … RH Fernando Cruz … RH Kaleb Ort … LH Tim Hill

KEY POSITION PLAYERS: C Austin Wells … 1B Ben Rice … 2B Jazz Chisolm Jr … 3B Ryan McMahon … SS Jose Caballero (IL Anthony Volpe) … LF Cody Bellinger … CF Trent Grisham … RF Aaron Judge … DH Giancarlo Stanton

MAJOR DEPARTURES: RH Devin Williams … 1B Paul Goldschmidt … RH Luke Weaver … RH Jonathan Loaisaga … RH Mark Leiter Jr … UT DJ LeMaheu … RH Ian Hamilton.

PREVIEW: The Yankees pride themselves on never finishing below .500 under Brian Cashman, even going back to 1992, but they have only one WS title this century. It would seem when you have Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton anchoring your lineup and the financial resources of the Steinbrenner family and YES Network, there should be more than one World Series trophy on the shelf since 2000. With regards to the fanbase and media, methinks they doth protest too much when other teams in the division challenge their assumed supremacy. HOW THEY WIN: The currently healthy part of the Yankees roster is not ready to win, but if Gerritt Cole and Carlos Rodon return and can stay healthy and if Cam Schlittler remains flush with his rookie success and if they can overcome some more shaky D, they can win. HOW THEY DON’T: The bullpen in the Bronx used to be deeper and scarier. Defence is forever an Achilles Heel. The manager has struggled to keep media wolves away from the door and that is a distraction and an added pressure. The GM has been there 30 years and the villagers are gathering to storm the castle with torches and grievances. And why did the Yankees cancel international scouting agreements? Can Trent Grisham continue his offensive surge?

4-Orioles … 75-87 in 2025 … Projected ’26 payroll $150.6M (17)

MGR: Craig Albernaz (1^st year)

ROTATION: LH Trevor Rogers … RH Shane Baz … RH Zach Eflin … RH Kyle Bradish … RH Dean Kremer.

BULLPEN TOP 5: CL Ryan Helsley … RH Andrew Kittredge … RH Tyler Wells … RH Colin Selby … LH Keegan Akin

KEY POSITION PLAYERS: C-Adley Rutschman … 1B-Pete Alonso … 2B Jackson Holliday … 3B Jordan Westburg … SS Gunnar Henderson … LF Taylor Ward … CF Colton Cowser … RF Tyler O’Neill … DH Samuel Basallo

MAJOR DEPARTURES: RH Tomo Sugano … RH Grayson Rodriguez … OF Dylan Carlson … UT Jorge Mateo.

PREVIEW: The Orioles franchise broke through with 101 wins in 2023 and seemed to be well on their way to annual contention, powered by an impressive array of young position-players that had been greedily gathered via the draft process, aided immeasurably by five straight abysmal finishes from 2017-21.But in 2024, the O’s win total dropped by 10, to 91, and last year spiralled to 75, during the season firing manager Brandon Hyde and losing the fear factor that had existed in the bullpen. HOW THEY WIN: A return to earlier form by Adley Rutschman, an MVP performance from Gunnar Henderson and 180-200 quality innings from Trevor Rogers. Can Helsley dominate ninth innings like Felix Bautista? HOW THEY DON’T: The Mets failed to qualify for the post-season with Pete Alonso and Juan Soto. Now Alonso is O’s saviour. Is Samuel Basallo the big-time player they believe? A rotation looking for help traded away Grayson Rodriguez to bolster an outfield that wasn’t looking for help.

5-Rays … 77-85 in 2025 … Projected ’26 payroll $79.5M (27)

MGR: Kevin Cash (12^th year)

ROTATION: LH Shane McLanahan … RH Drew Rasmussen … RH Ryan Pepiot … LH Steven Matz … RH Joe Boyle

BULLPEN TOP 5: CL Griffin Jax … CL Edwin Uceta … LH Garrett Cleavinger … RH Bryan Baker … RH Cole Sulser …

KEY POSITION PLAYERS: C Nick Fortes … 1B Jonathan Aranda … 2B Gavin Lux … 3B Junior Caminero … SS Taylor Walls … LF Chandler Simpson … CF Cedric Mullins … RF Jake Fraley … DH Yandy Diaz

MAJOR DEPARTURES: OF Josh Lowe … 2B Brandon Lowe … RH Pete Fairbanks … UT Christopher Morel … OF Jake Mangum … LH Mason Montgomery

PREVIEW: The rest of the division is averaging $227.6M in team payroll, while the Rays are at $79.5M. I know money can’t buy happiness but in this division what it can buy is a comfortable basement apartment. HOW THEY WIN: An MVP from Junior Caminero and a couple of fiery charter plane crashes. HOW THEY DON’T: The Rays have had a proven formula of finding strong armed prospects, building them up and at the right time trading for younger prospects. Their position players are always pesky, smart overachievers. As they look up at the rest of the division, the Rays slow second half fade in ‘25 may carry into ‘26.