Off-season additions identify Blue Jays floor rather than pointing to ceiling

Spring training invitations are often simply a roll of the dice

Who among the residents of Blue Jays nation would trade the ‘23 contributions of Brandon Belt, Whit Merrifield and Matt Chapman, for Daniel Vogelbach, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Eduardo Escobar? One has to believe, pretty much nobody!

On the surface, that 3-for-3 fantasy-to-reality trade seems like simply a temporary commutative theorem effected by GM Ross Atkins to link the end of ’23 and the start of ’24. Does it make the Jays a better team? No! It’s like buying a Rolex from a street vendor in Times Square and arguing, hey, the watch keeps almost the same time and what’s the big deal with that extra “L” in Rollex?

However, in the dollars and no-sense world of hot-stove, off-season baseball, as it exists today, given the huge number of unsigned veterans currently splashing around in the deep end of the free-agent pool looking for bargains first has happened. But in terms of non-roster spring invites, things are seldom as they appear.

The signing of free-agent 3B/DH Justin Turner was the one solid addition for the Jays offence that stands on its own as a positive move. But the next tier of MLB free-agency is more complex. In simple terms, if you were an unsigned fringe free-agent, would you rather be invited late to someone’s major-league camp with no guarantees, but able to be viewed by 29 other teams than be sitting at home, working out at a local high school or college hoping a light-bulb suddenly goes off in some GM’s head. Better to be included on those long spring training bus rides getting your 2-3 at-bats vs. aggressive pitchers working on their stuff, prepping for a season, all that, with MLB scouts scattered in the stands.

It’s reminiscent of the Jays’ 2022 camp, with invited players 1B Greg Bird and OF Dexter Fowler, each with MLB credentials, but both men released at the end of the spring. That’s usually part of the agreement with vets. Most of the once-successful veteran players invited to camp aren’t in it to go to Triple-A. If they don’t break camp with the big club, most will simply take their release and dive back into the FA pool.     

Let’s examine the three Jays newcomers mentioned above:

Daniel Vogelbach: The 31-year-old Florida native is four years younger and 40 lbs. heavier than Belt, but not nearly as good a fit moving forward. Vogelbach, listed at 6-0, 270 lbs., has been with six teams in the past four years, including an 11-day, two game stint with the Jays in Buffalo during the COVID shortened 2020 season in which he could not take away DH at-bats from Rowdy Tellez. Vogelbach has never topped the .793 OPS in a season that he accomplished in 2022. He has a .220 career average and despite the new bigger bases, has never attempted a steal. He is probably the fourth best defensive first baseman in camp and needs to be pinch-run for.

His presence on the 2024 regular-season bench would never seem to be a fit. The modern bench is a four-player group -- one catcher, one player that can fill in a shortstop and another who is an extra outfielder. That leaves one spot and versatility has become that requirement.

Manager John Schneider and the Jays do not want a player that can only DH. They would love to utilize the DH spot — when Justin Turner is not given the nod — to be able to get his every-day players off their feet -- especially Vlad Guerrero Jr., George Springer or Bo Bichette Jr.

This invitation may, in fact, be a case of Atkins and Vogelbach’s agency, ISE Baseball, working together to provide a spring showcase for their player. Vogelbach’s agents also represent Jays’ left fielder Daulton Varsho and catcher Danny Jansen, who is eligible for free-agency following the season. Either way, Vogelbach is a long-shot to stay if the rest of the candidates are healthy.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa:  The signing of the 28-year-old former Rangers and Yankees utility man is as close to a saw-off as it gets if comparing him to Merrifield, the man he is replacing. This two-year free-agent deal works out best for the Jays only if IKF is not to be considered an everyday player at one position. One clue to the fact the Jays plan to use him in in a super-utility role is that when he signed, the team’s website listed him as an outfielder, but now it lists him at shortstop.

Given that club-endorsing-more-than-one-role clue, Kiner-Falefa should be used in much the same way as Merrifield. He is six years younger and has the ability to be the No. 1 backup shortstop for Bichette should he need a day off. IKF could also draw a fair amount of playing time at third-base, but might be more useful to the Jays as a second-baseman, who is moved to left field against lefthanded starters, with either Kevin Kiermaier or Varsho getting the day off. Then, with a lead in late innings, as they did in 2023, those defensive wizards can come in defensively to protect a lead. That’s a reflection of the same versatility and roles as Merrifield.

Merrifield was more of a threat on the bases, with a better ability and threat to steal bags and go first to third and second to home. But overall, IKF is either a tie or a slight upgrade over Whit as a role player.

Eduardo Escobar: The signing of the 35-year-old switch-hitting Venezuelan is more of an insurance policy than a dice roll. Escobar’s final Jays’ designation this spring will be decided by one of the following factors. 1-If he lights it up at third-base in the spring; 2-if Turner physically feels he needs less third-base and more to be the primary DH; 3-if Cavan Biggio further develops defensively and becomes a viable lefthand-hitting option at third, in addition to giving Springer days off in right. Any of those three factors can contribute to the decision on what to do with Escobar at spring’s end. Like Vogelbach, scouts from other teams will be watching him.

Truth is that Escobar has a better chance of heading north with the team than Vogelbach. The best season of Escobar’s career came in 2019 when he was 30-years-old and playing for the Diamondbacks. His OPS that year in 158 games was .831, playing 144 of those at 3B, batting .269, with 29 doubles, 10 triples, 35 homers and 118 RBIs. He was an NL all-star.

But not so much since then. In four seasons since that D’backs peak, he has played for the Brewers, Mets and Angels, appearing in 435 games, with a .219 average and 58 homers. Escobar is that rare performer who has played career games at every position, including pitcher and catcher plus DH. Pay attention during spring games.

That being said, there are a few too many middle and left side of the infield options on the current Jays 40-man roster and invited to camp, for only three available bench spots (not including the backup catcher).

Of course, the primary starters at second and third base are still up in the air and may end up being shared. But, at some point early in camp, look for a Blue Jays trade from among the MLB-ready group and that move would surely help clear up the picture.

If the Jays are to improve on 89 wins from a year ago, it won’t be coming from the outside additions among position players. Bo, Vlad, Don Mattingly and a deep and talented pitching staff are the keys.