No matter where Bichette’s free-agency lands him there should be no hard feelings
Blue Jays took their long-term shot in '23 but Bo wanted to roll the dice
By the time you read this, there’s a strong possibility one, or all, of the top remaining free agents Bo Bichette, Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger will have agreed to a contract. Those three MLB stars are the top position players remaining on this year’s market, with each of their representatives seemingly playing a wait-and-see, multi-million-dollar game of chicken to see which deep-pocketed team blinks first, which player will sign first, thus, setting the new goalpost, a guide for the others, a floor from which to negotiate. Basically, the revised bids after that FA1 dam breaks will come from the same group of offence-seeking dreamer teams – minus one.
However, in this space, we concern ourselves with one team. Let’s dig deeper into the complicated situation of Bo Bichette and the Blue Jays. We have discussed often, on the Exit Philosophy podcast, the belief that Bichette’s departure was fait accompli. It was his one chance at a huge free agent deal and the understanding has always been, from Bo’s side, there would be no early signing, no home-team discount. Bo has forever been associated with Vlad, but Bo is not Vlad.
The Jays had their best chance to for a career-defining extension with Bo, going back to the winter of 2022-23. They explored the parameters of a multi-year contract with a then-24-year-old Bo that would have carried through the final three years of arbitration, plus buying out 5-7 years of free agency – 8-10 years, total.
Instead, Bichette backed away from that contractual table and the two sides settled on a three-year contract (2023-25) – 3 years, $33.6M -- that gave the Jays important cost-certainty in what can prove to be an unnecessarily dangerous and vitriolic three years of arbitration. Bo basically had bet on himself and it now looks like he is going to win.
Bichette, at 27-years-old will have succeeded if his new contract ends up among the Top 20 Total Value deals in MLB history. That Top 20 concept seemed a pipe-dream, at best, given the history of comparable middle infielders, that is until Alex Bregman signed, 5 years, $175-million, with the Cubs. Bregman is four years older than Bichette and Bo has more offensive upside and plays up the middle, defensively, even adding second base to the mix. The AAV is not Bo’s main concern here. It’s term and total.
Let’s examine history. Following is the current list of middle infielders among the MLB all-time Top 20 in terms of Total Value (Years/Dollars), according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
These are the 7 of 20 up-the-middle total value deals: Mookie Betts (12/$365M), Dodgers; Francisco Lindor (10/$341M), Mets; Corey Seager (10/$325M), Rangers; Trea Turner (11/$300M), Phillies; Bobby Witt Jr. (11/$288.8M), Royals; Xander Bogaerts (11/$280M), Padres; Alex Rodriguez (10/$275M) Yankees. It should be noted that Betts contract was signed when he was an outfielder and A-Rod’s was inked after he had already moved to third-base to keep Derek Jeter at short for the Bombers.
The Jays, back in ‘23, knew those contract numbers reflected a bias against shortstops. They were trying to set a realistic upper limit for when Bo became a free agent in 2025-26 and stick to it, believing that Bo’s sights were set too high.
So it makes sense that beginning with his original three-year, placeholder, contract, there would need to have been a dramatic change, a coming to terms with reality on Bo’s side, almost a step backward in strategy and free-agent thinking, for the Jays to be back in the picture of potential destinations, in the running for his services, again, at this stage of the process. The Jays indeed came back into the picture.
Changes in the circumstances that allowed the Jays back onto Bo’s radar, included 1-the knee injury in early September that saw Andres Gimenez take over at short, resulting in improved infield play and a run to the Series. 2-Bo’s acceptance when the idea came up of moving to second-base on a wounded knee so he could be activated for his first ever Fall Classic. 3-The fact the Jays became so close as a clubhouse, in a season expected to be a reload and the obvious commitment that ownership is making to keep it sustainable. They are spending money to make money.
4-The harsh business reality of his people exploring the market and realizing that middle infielder contracts are different than those of Shohei, Soto and Vlad. 5-The personal factor of comfort. Bo’s is not the type of personality that thrives on fan attention and overt clubhouse leadership. He was always at ease with Jays relationships. But now, if he leaves, Bo could end up being the Mitch Marner of the Blue Jays. Was he a bigger factor to Jays success than they realized?
The Jays plan all along, since free agency opened in early November, has been not to join in on the active bidding for Bichette, but to let his side know what term and dollar figure they value him at and for Bo to go and explore the market and see if he can do better, The thought was “God bless”, but don’t come back every two weeks looking for a counter offer to ratchet up the cost of your business.
That professional understanding with Bo’s representation, from Day 1 allowed the Jays to still go out and actively pursue players like Kazuma Okamoto, Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers without Bichette feeling disrespected. If Bichette truly wants to be part of the Jays championship quest moving forward, he would be welcomed, but mostly on the club’s terms. It’s been a journey for Bo.
Bottom line is fans should not be upset with Bichette, no matter in which major-league uniform he ends up next appearing at Rogers Centre. The mutual understanding, all along, seems to have been that of allowing the Jays to aggressively pursue other options, with the knowledge that the prodigal son may always return. Bo earned the right to explore the market and he chose to. Meanwhile the Jays, feeling no guilt, have already spent more in free agency than any team in baseball.