MLB ’24 POWER RANKINGS (July 17, 2024)

Blue Jays must set modest 2nd 1/2 goals as reality sets in

The Blue Jays at the All-Star Break: The Jays are 44-52 following the first 96 games of the ’24 season and reality now tells us, the Jays need to finish 45-21 (.682) over the final 66 contests, in order, simply, to match last year’s win total of 89. And even then, those 89 wins just earned them a wild-card berth and a quick exit with two straight losses in Minneapolis. The problem with projecting that necessary second half hot streak for the Jays is that, as we speak, at the All-Star break, the top win-percentage among the 30 MLB teams in 2024 has been the Phillies at .646, followed by the Guardians at .611 and the O’s at .604. Thus, the Jays need to sustain a winning percentage better than anyone has managed yet as the unofficial second half is set to begin. Without being able to mathematically say “it’s over,” the fact is it’s over.

Blue Jays more modest goal for rest of ‘24: The Jays should, inside that clubhouse and in the front office, set a much more modest goal of 81-81, selling the dream of clawing back to .500 and using that bounce-back, if they manage to go 37-29 (.561) to sell hope for the immediate future, 2025 and beyond. Remember, there can be no “rebuild” on the horizon for this group. Paying customers at the renovated ballpark won’t buy it. However, even a .561 win-percentage over route 66 is a tough ask, especially if the gameplan is for GM Ross Atkins and CEO Mark Shapiro to be sellers over the next 13 days leading to the trade deadline, July 30. Consider the only teams to match that ambitious number, over the ’24 first half, were the Phils, Guardians, O’s, Brewers, Yankees, Twins and Dodgers. Have the Jays proved they are as good as any of those?

Jays already selling shiny object of 2025 home games: It may only be a coincidence that it happened on Thursday, July 18, but the Jays released the official 2025 schedule, promoting a season that opens at Rogers Centre for the first time since 2019. The season opener is set for Thursday, March 27 against the Orioles. Of course, there were contributing factors to that six-year gap between season openers at Rogers Centre. There was the pandemic that disrupted the world and all pro sports in 2020-22 followed by construction at the stadium/ballpark in 2023-24.

It’s as if the organization is symbolically writing off the remaining 36 home games at Rogers Centre, let’s look at the highlights of the new ’25 schedule featuring a Jays team that will be vastly different than the one that performed over the first 96 games this year. The opening homestand next year will see the O’s and Nationals for a total of seven games on the homestand. Later, the July 1 holiday will feature the Yankees first visit of the year. Meanwhile, a highlight for fans in Western Canada will be the Jays annual trip to Seattle, which will be on Mother’s Day weekend, May 9-11. The final game of the ’25 season at home will be on Sept. 28 against the Rays.

Trade Deadline Speculation: The most obvious player departure on a short-term rental is LHP Yusei Kikuchi. His appeal is that he takes the ball every five days and could easily fit into a 3-4 slot in many teams’ playoff rotations and be available as a long man in relief when the occasion arises. When Kikuchi becomes a free agent in early November, the Jays could even be one of the suitors since he loves Toronto and the club loves him. Clue from Jays Weekend Rotation: Against the Tigers, the Jays revealed it will be Friday RH Chris Bassitt, Saturday LH Yusei Kikuchi and Sunday RH Kevin Gausman. The safest bet before this rotation announcement would have been that Kikuchi would pitch G2 coming out of the break. If they plan on trading him, the Jays will get two starts, July 20 and July 26, with his new team able to plug him in to their own rotation as early as July 31, the day after the trade deadline. If GM Atkins needs to seal the deal, that’s a good move giving his new team 10-11 starts.

Sending C Danny Jansen anywhere else as a pending free agent makes very little sense for either the Jays or the acquiring team. Catchers need to build a relationship with the pitching staff and for Jansen to be able to do that for a contending team over the final two moths is unrealistic. Besides, unless the Jays are tanking over the final two months, the catching combo of Alejandro Kirk, maximum six of every 10 starts) and anyone else currently in the organization is a problem. Instead, they should hang on to Jansen and at the end of the year, negotiate on a three-year contract at reasonable dollars. He is not a qualifying-offer type of player.

Any of the current relievers is available and if the return for RH Trevor Richards, LH Genesis Cabrera, RH Chad Green or RH Yimi Garcia is a legitimate minor-league prospect, preferably a young, lively arm with promise, then those deals can be done. Jays fans can look for more of RH Ryan Burr, LH Brendon Little, RH Erik Swanson and RH Bowden Francis.

AL EAST STILL THE SEAT OF POWER IN MLB

(6 Divisions Combined Records) 

1-AL East +41 … 2-NL Central +10

3-NL East minus +3 … 4-AL Central minus-7

5-NL West minus-15…6-AL West minus- 32 

Griff’s Power Rankings – 2024 Edition 5

1-Phillies (1)

Prez Dave Dombrowski has built a team for the post-season, with four starters going deep every five days and 4 hitters that can change a game with one swing of the bat. Top 3 rotation, RH Zack Wheeler, LH Ranger Suarez, RH Aaron Nola.  

2-Orioles (3)

The most relentless top-to-bottom lineup in MLB. If this young dynasty is what you get by having losing seasons five years in a row -- three of those 100+ Ls -- would you be all in for that? Tough call.

3-Guardians (4)

This bullpen makes every game a situation where you must have a lead heading into late innings, led by RH Emmanuel Clase. Offence built around 3B Jose Martinez, 1B Josh Naylor and LF Steven Kwan. 

4-Yankees (2)

The Yankee bullpen is a weakness on this powerful offensive team led by CF Aaron Judge and RF Juan Soto. Ace RH Gerrit Cole is working his way back to Cy form, while the innings count for RH Luis Gil is a concern.

5-Dodgers (5)

The Dodgers stumbled into the all-star break losing 10 of 15 but somehow nobody seems worried about them. Injuries to SS Mookie Betts, RH Tyler Glasnow and RH Yosh Yamamoto have hurt badly.

6-Braves (6)

Somehow Prez Alex Anthopoulos at the trade deadline will bring in help. LH Chris Sale will be comeback player of the year. Losing OF Ronald Acuna, in addition to the loss of RH Spencer Strider is daunting.

7-Twins (12)

Are rounding back into the form that was expected as the rotations regains some of its footing, including former Jays farmhand RH Simeon Woods-Richardson. CF Byron Buxton and SS Carlos Correa lead the offence.

8-Astros (19)

The record does not jibe with this ranking, but this is a team with a relentless offence, that is finding out how to pitch just well enough, through devastating mound injuries. Been a learning process for 1^st year MGR Joe Espada.

9-Brewers (8)

Have not won a series in the month of July (0-3-1), so perhaps the missing pieces -- 108 pitching starts and 36 saves from last year – are catching up with them.  Still hold the lead over hard-charging Cards and resurgent Bucs. 

10-Red Sox (13)

Surprising team with all-star game MVP CF Jarren Duran and 3B Rafael Devers, plus a surprisingly effective rotation. A Red Sox team with 88 steals at the break? Outrageous. This has been MGR Alex Cora’s best job.    

11-Mariners (10)

A team that reflects similar traits to the Blue Jays but at a slightly higher level in most areas. The M’s built an early division lead, but they can hear a stampede building behind them with the Astros and maybe even the Rangers.

12-Royals (7)

Following a great start after a calculated off-season of adding role-playing veterans, the Royals are 18-26 since May 26. RH Seth Lugo and LH Cole Ragans anchor the staff and SS Bobby Witt Jr is MLB’s best player and a serious MVP candidate.

13-Cardinals (22)

Finally regrouping and putting themselves in a position to make a post-season run. Cards are 35-22 since May 11. A veteran pitching staff with 80 of the first 96 games started by pitchers 33-years-of-age or older.

14-Mets (25)

Another expensive team that is rising from the early-season ashes to at least contend for a wild-card. Moving SS Francisco Lindor and LF Brandon Nimmo to the top of the lineup has keyed a 25-11 streak since June 2…plus that mascot myth. 

15-Rangers (9)

The defending champs are finding it difficult to repeat. Respect gained from being World Series champs keeps me believing that MGR Bruce Bochy’s Rangers can put together a significant run in the second half.

16-Tigers (16)

This team is built around LH Tarik Skubal who will be Top 3 in Cy Young voting. Starting pitchers other than Skubal and RH Jack Flaherty are a combined 9-22 in 62 starts. A strong-armed bullpen has stumbled but not fallen.

17-Reds (21)

Electric 22-year-old SS Elly De La Cruz is on pace for 28 HR and 78 steals. Under MGR David Bell this is a far more entertaining team than it is a contender. The Reds have 72 games started by pitchers 26-years-old or younger.

18-Rays (18)

It doesn’t matter whether the Rays look like they will be sellers at the deadline, they will find a way to stay competitive with replacement parts. 3B Isaac Paredes is one of the veterans available plus spare parts in the bullpen.

19-Padres (11)

This seems a team wherein results are less than the sum of its parts. Spilling over with offensive talent, with a great ballpark and a beautiful city, yet the Padres are two games under .500 at home and lost 6 of 7 into the all-star break.

20-Pirates (24)

Future looks bright built around starting foursome of RH Paul Skenes, RH Jared Jones, RH Mitch Keller and RH Quinn Priester. Started season 11-5, before slumping to 15-25 next 40. Back to .500 for first time since April 27.  

21-Diamondbacks (15)

NL champs resemble an 84-win team. Of course, that’s exactly what they were a year ago when they snuck in as a wildcard and went to the World Series. Tough rotation absences are LH Eduardo Rodriguez, RH Merrill Kelly and LH Jordan Montgomery.

22-Cubs (17)

LH Shota Imanaga has been a great addition as a leading candidate for rookie-of-the-year. However, around the diamond, disappointing years from SS Dansby Swanson, 3B Patrick Morel and injured CF Cody Bellinger.

23-Blue Jays (20)

The Buffalo Boys will play a huge role the final two months, but if they trade LH Yusei Kikuchi and key bullpen members, the final 66 games will be a struggle. They need SS Bo Bichette to step up and continued upward curve from 1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. 2B Spencer Horwitz needs to play.  

24-Giants (14)

The Giants have talent on offence but no real identity. C Patrick Bailey is a fixture for years to come and CF Heliot Ramos was a surprise all-star and 3B Matt Chapman is doing what Matt Chapman does. But they remain sub-.500.

25-Nationals (23)

Nats spent all of ‘23 identifying their future and SS CJ Abrams may be the centrepiece. After almost reaching the .500 mark, they stumbled and fell back. But the future is bright. Tough playing in same division as Braves and Phils. 

26-Angels (27)

The Angels were mediocre with DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani. They remain mediocre without him. Add the enthusiasm of MGR Ron Washington and subtract injured CF Mike Trout and 3B Anthony Rendon, this is what you get.        

27-A’s (26)

The A’s have two huge trade chips in CL Mason Miller and DH Brent Rooker. Canadian 3B Abraham Toro is still on the IL. Somehow, this team has 122 homers, including eight on the Sunday before the break.    

28-Rockies (29)

This Rox team will likely be scouted heavily by contenders seeking strong-armed pitching help that could benefit from throwing at sea-level.

29-Marlins (28)

The Fish have 39 current starts from this year plus a former Cy Young Award winner RH Sandy Alcantara on the IL and were first team to throw in the towel on ’24 when they shipped all-star 2B Luis Arraez to the Padres.

30-White Sox (30)

This team is really bad. ‘Nuff said.