MLB ’24 POWER RANKINGS – 1
Rangers remain No. 1 until proven otherwise
Let’s Go with 2024!! There is an adage regarding spring training, that always the February-March pre-season stretch is the most exciting and optimistic time of year for fans of every franchise. Your team is still tied for first and all of the over-the-top, winter-fuelled optimism sees hope springing eternal. However, the harsh reality of any team sport, once the season begins, is that no matter how many teams have actually improved their lot and actually go on to win more games than they did the year before, the final overall MLB record must inescapably be 2,430 wins and 2,430 losses (.500). Not everybody can be better, year over year. For every winner there’s a loser. For every glass half-full, there’s a glass half-empty.
You can’t just look at off-season acquisitions when previewing a season. You have to consider the marathon schedule’s downside risk -- key injuries, lack of development and under-performing incumbent players, as happened with the Blue Jays in ’23. (i.e. Vlad Guerrero Jr, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk and Daulton Varsho).
The MLB middle class remains deep: Throw a blanket over two-thirds of the 30 MLB teams. In ‘23, there were 21 teams between 71-90 wins. That’s a 20-game spread in the overall standings for 21 teams, all of them now struggling to convince their own fans they have taken the next step forward … which makes for interesting discussion within this first-edition ’24 power rankings. What and who to believe?
A close examination of final MLB standings from last season shows the NL maintained an advantage in the debut of increased interleague play, a surprising 34 games above .500 vs. the AL. Overall, the power-rankings shifted East, perhaps due to more stable broadcast revenues and larger, more traditional and lucrative markets. The fact is the two powerhouse divisions in ’23, the Easts of the AL and NL, finished with a 10-member (NL+AL) combined record of 126 games above .500. Here are the overall division W-L records.
1-AL East +88 … 2-NL East +38
3-NL West minus-2 … 4-NL Central minus-2 …
5-AL West minus-28 … 6-AL Central minus-94
Griff’s Power Rankings – 2024 Edition 1
1-Rangers (90-72)
Allow the champs their due until knocked off the throne. Glass Half-Full: Offensively, in ’23, discovered weapons in RF Adolis Garcia, plus rookies OF Evan Carter and 3B Josh Jung. This spring it’s OF Wyatt Langford. Half-Empty: They open the season with more than $131M on IL, including RH Jacob deGrom, RH Max Scherzer, RH Tyler Mahle and SS Corey Seager.
2-Dodgers (100-62)
Never has there been as ill-thought-out a declaration uttered by off-season pundits than “this may be the greatest lineup ever”. Glass Half-Full: Added the Japanese combo of DH Shohei Ohtani and RH Yosh Yamamoto. Also added RH Tyler Glasnow, who has to remain healthy. Half-Empty: A great athlete, but isn’t it a dice roll to suddenly name SS Mookie Betts to his third position.
3-Braves (104-58)
Nothing less than a World Series would satisfy GM Alex Anthopoulos with the talent he’s assembled. Glass Half-Full: Start with the game’s top offensive weapon RF Ronald Acuna Jr, then add RH Spencer Strider poised to win first Cy. Half-Empty: LH Chris Sale has not recorded more than 103 IP since 2019 while RH Charlie Morton is 40-years-old. Health is never a given.
4-Orioles (101-61)
The O’s snuck up on baseball last year, but teams will be prepared for a deep and relentless offence this season. Glass Half-Full: Odds-on fave for rookie honours IF Jackson Holliday and new staff ace RH Corbin Burnes. Half-Empty: Closer RH Craig Kimbrel is a step down from RH Felix Bautista. RH Kyle Bradish was pitching like an ace until a spring elbow sprain.
5-Phillies (90-72)
Contenders and pennants seem to follow Phils’ baseball president Dave Dombrowski – Marlins, Tigers, Red Sox, Phillies. If owner mandates a “rebuild” DD is out. Glass Half-Full: A full year of 1B Bryce Harper, plus solid infield D to back RH Zach Wheeler and RH Aaron Nola. Half-Empty: No proven closer. UT Whit Merrifield was the only important addition.
6-Astros (90-72)
MGR Dusty Baker saved the ‘Stros brand but is now watching from home as a Giants’ assistant. Where will they go from here? Glass Half-Full: This same group seems to run it back and compete every year, but have added CL Josh Hader pushing RH Ryan Pressley into setup role. Half-Empty: They may need to quickly add another legit starter to join LH Framber Valdez to be taken seriously. Tough division.
7-Padres (82-80)
When OF Juan Soto was dealt, it looked like start of a Padres rebuild. But it was, instead, more of a late-developing re-load. Glass Half-Full: Adding RH Dylan Cease and RH Michael King to a rotation with RH Yu Darvish and RH Joe Musgrove is key. Half-Empty: Questions include unproven closer, middle infield switch (2B Xander Bogaerts & SS Ha Seong Kim), plus production at bottom of order.
8-Diamondbacks (84-78)
Hard to drop WS runners-up down to rank No. 8, but fact is they won just 84 regular season games. Glass Half-Full: A full season of CL Paul Sewald, plus an underrated rotation led by RH Zac Gallen, RH Merrill Kelly and LH Eduardo Rodriguez. Half-Empty: Tough to ask the same success for young OF Corbin Carroll and C Gabby Moreno. Toughest NL division to navigate and win. But they’re good.
9-Yankees (82-80)
Never a comfortable off-season in the Bronx after they miss the playoffs, but they are bumping against the top luxury-tax, so it seems they must remain prudent. Glass Half-Full: Added bat of OF Juan Soto, plus healthy 1B Anthony Rizzo and a much-improved outfield defence. Half-Empty: Storm clouds over OF Aaron Judge and lingering toe issues. Then, the wonky elbow of Cy-guy, RH Gerrit Cole.
10-Mariners (88-74)
Can M’s be better than Astros or Rangers to earn wild-card? Do they have to be? With A’s as division patsies, 3rd in West may be enough. Glass Half-Full: RH Luis Castillo is the ace, but four other starters under 27, make them AL’s best young rotation. Half-Empty: CDN RH Matt Brash emerged as top setup man but may miss ’24. Does less swing-and-miss equal a better M’s offence?
11-Twins (87-75)
The worst division in baseball has beefed up its bottom end, so the Twins may be better and still not win as many games. Glass Half-Full: All-Star RH Pablo Lopez replaces Sonny Gray as staff ace, with CF Byron Buxton hoping for a full, healthy season. Half-Empty: Team Canada 2B Edouard Julien bumped Jorge Polanco out of town, but needs to show he can defend and bat leadoff.
12-Blue Jays (89-73)
Won 89 games last year, yet Vegas suggests far fewer. Built for 162-games, now need to figure out the art of advancing in the post-season. Glass Half-Full: Emergence of LF Daulton Varsho, plus return to form of 1B Vlad Guerrero Jr, C Alejandro Kirk and RF George Springer are key. Half-Empty: Winning requires C Danny Jansen to stay healthy through his free-agent year, but it seems Danny has had more issues with his hands in bad places than Lauren Boebert.
13-Cubs (83-79)
Showing patience with OF/1B Cody Bellinger saved them much money. On road to rebuild, weakness of NL Central encouraged them to compete … now. Glass Half-Full: Poached MGR Craig Counsell from Brewers. Replaced RH Marcus Stroman with LH Shota Imanaga. Half-Empty: Bellinger has one good season since ‘19. It was a walk season, so was he inspired. Can he repeat?
14-Reds (82-80)
Hitters ballpark in Cincy with an exciting young roster in a gettable division. Best team in Ohio? Glass Half-Full: SS Elly de la Cruz, 22, leads a talented lineup with seven players at 27-years-old or younger, all with MLB experience. Half-Empty: RH Hunter Greene needs to stay healthy and RH Frankie Montas needs to be healthy. Caveat is hitters’ ballpark also works for opponent.
15-Tigers (78-84)
Tigers have a chance to be the sub-.500 team that takes the biggest leap forward in ‘24. Glass Half-Full: Less than a year away from becoming mediocre. RH Jack Flaherty and RH Kenta Maeda were added to rotation joining talented LH Tarik Skubal, Bullpen is deep and nasty. Half-Empty: Much unproven talent in a lineup that added vets LF Mark Canha and 3B Gio Urshela.
16-Giants (79-83)
Hard to imagine these new-look Giants under MGR Bob Melvin finishing sub-.500, even if 4th best team in NL West. Glass Half-Full: The addition of LH Blake Snell to ace RH Logan Webb, with rehabbing LH Robbie Ray and RH Alex Cobb make them a force. Half-Empty: If 3B Matt Chapman repeats his down offensive year and if RH Jordan Hicks can’t transition to starter which is very possible.
17-Rays (99-63)
Not likely to match last season. The window of contention may be closing on MGR Kevin Cash’s fingers. Glass Half-Full: These are the Rays and they always find a way to stitch together a contender. 1B Yandy Diaz and LF Randy Arozarena are legit all-stars. Half-Empty: Once again, pitching injuries hurt. Four starters on the IL. No SS Wander Franco or LH Shane McLanahan.
18-Guardians (76-86)
The AL Central is wide-open under first-year MGR Stephen Vogt. Their organizational pitching never disappoints. Glass Half-Full: Top four starters all in their 20s and all homegrown. Intimidating CL Emmanuel Clase plus acknowledged team leader 3B Jose Ramirez. Half-Empty: Lack of team power makes it hard to compete. Only Ramirez had 20+ homers. 1B Josh Naylor will reach that total.
19-Marlins (84-78)
Eased into playoffs with an unlikely year under MGR Skip Schumaker, but were swept out in NLWC by the Phils. Glass Half-Full: With CF Jazz Chisolm Jr, 2B Luis Arraez and SS Tim Anderson this is an exciting team to watch, but must translate to clutch. Half-Empty: This team usually succeeds on dynamic starting pitching but with four key IL’d rotation guys they simply must wait and hope.
20-Mets (75-87)
The Mets have become smarter with their high payroll, but owner Steve Cohen has 13 pending free-agents, including 1B Pete Alonso. Glass Half-Full: Return of CL Edwin Diaz and his trumpets is emotional lift. Three rotation newcomers all know about winning. Half-Empty: With ace RH Kodai Senga on IL (shoulder) they are counting on bounce-backs by RH Luis Severino and LH Sean Manaea.
21-Red Sox (78-84)
Should have seen this BoSox step-back coming as far back as when they let go of GM Dave Dombrowski who does not take foot off gas. Glass Half-Full: A healthy SS Trevor Story, 3B Rafael Devers, emerging stars 1B Triston Casas and RF Jarren Duran. Half-Empty: Were only AL East team under .500 last year and did nothing aggressively to change that. Lost RH Lucas Giolito for year.
22-Cardinals (71-91)
Any team with infield corners manned by 1B Paul Goldschmidt and 3B Nolan Arenado should contend. Glass Half-Full: The first-place Brewers have come back to the pack, so the division is wide open and these ARE the Cardinals. Half-Empty: Rotation ace RH Sonny Gray sidelined, exposes its soft underbelly with RH Lance Lynn, LH Steve Matz and RH Kyle Gibson.
23-Royals (56-106)
Team has plans for a new downtown stadium and made some shrewd player additions. Glass Half-Full: One of Top 10 talents in AL with SS Bobby Witt Jr and a future all-star in LH Cole Ragans. Added RH Seth Lugo, RH Michael Wacha and veteran bullpen help. Half-Empty: Tough to see a 56-win team jumping to much more than 70. Depth of lineup is a concern.
24-Brewers (92-70)
Projected to possibly take the biggest plunge in standings, beginning with defection of MGR Craig Counsell. Won NL Central by +9 over Cubs. Glass Half-Full: Locked up top prospect CF Jackson Chourio, then added 1B Rhys Hoskins and DH Gary Sanchez. Still with LF Christian Yelich. Half-Empty: Traded ace RH Corbin Burnes and lost to injury all-star CL Devin Williams.
25-Nationals (71-91)
Nats spent ‘23 identifying their future … and it is now. Glass Half-Full: Amazingly they bring back entire 5-man rotation which combined for 143 starts a year ago – LH Patrick Corbin, RH Josiah Gray, LH MacKenzie Gore, RH Trevor Williams, RH Jake Irvin. Half-Empty: Have not finished with winning record since WS in 2019, going a combined 112 under .500.
26-Angels (73-89)
Most exciting off-season addition may be the enthusiasm and sagacity of MGR Ron Washington. Irreplaceable loss was DH Shohei Ohtani. Glass Half-Full: When you have CF Mike Trout your glass is half-full but you will need a healthy and motivated 3B Anthony Rendon. Half Empty: After $75.7M payroll for Trout and Rendon, the next highest salary is $13M for LH Tyler Anderson.
27-Pirates (76-86)
A great ballpark and a forgiving fanbase allow time for development. Glass Half-Full: Start with SS O’Neil Cruz, then add 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, C Henry Davis and a talented outfield. Half-Empty: After RH Mitch Keller, the rotation seems thin, until proven otherwise. Bucs have finished at .500-plus just four times in 32 years and have presented a losing record for the last five years.
28-Rockies (59-103)
Thread weaving through team history is that Mile-High factor and how it makes it hard to hang onto or attract good pitching. Glass Half-Full: Added starters, CDN RH Cal Quantrill and RH Dakota Hudson. Emerging young hitters led by LF Nolan Jones and CF Brenton Doyle. Half-Empty: Early co-closers are RH Justin Lawrence and RH Tyler Kinley. That’s not good enough
29-White Sox (61-101)
South-Siders remain chasers in division in which Tigers, Royals and Guardians have improved and the Twins are still target. Glass Half-Full: Should be able to see offensive improvement from DH Eloy Jimenez, CF Luis Robert Jr and 3B Yoan Moncada. Half-Empty: Have two regulars that may be worst hitters in AL at their position – C Martin Maldonado and SS Paul DeJong.
30-A’s (50-112)
Have sublet this Oakland basement apartment until their new home is ready and aren’t going to spend a dime on renovations. Glass Half-Full: If your team has a late-round Fantasy opening, LH JP Sears is a better investment than Sears-Roebuck. Half-Empty: Consider RH Ross Stripling is the highest paid A’s player at $9.25M. There is no logic to suggest these A’s will win more than 55 games.