2025 ALCS SCHEDULE … Projected Pitching Matchups
Game 1 … Sunday, Oct. 12 @ Toronto … 8:03 p.m.
RHP Bryce Miller vs. RHP Kevin Gausman
Game 2 … Monday, Oct. 13 @ Toronto … Time TBD
RHP Luis Castillo vs. RHP Trey Yesavage
Game 3 … Wednesday, Oct. 15 @ Seattle … Time TBD
RHP George Kirby vs. RHP Shane Bieber
Game 4 … Thursday, Oct. 16 @ Seattle … Time TBD
RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Chris Bassitt/RHP Max Scherzer
Game 5 … Friday, Oct. 17 @ Seattle … Time TBD
*RHP Bryan Woo vs. Gausman
Game 6 … Sunday, Oct. 19 @ Toronto … Time TBD
Castillo vs. Yesavage
Game 7 … Monday, Oct. 20 @ Toronto … Time TBD
TBA vs. TBA
How M’s reached to ALCS: Blessed for the last couple of seasons with the best young rotation in the AL, MGR Dan Wilson’s Mariners survived injuries to that elite starting group, that included RH Bryan Woo, who is expected to return to the active roster for this Jays series. The current order of their use has been affected by the fact the M’s had to go to Game 5 and 15 innings to dispose of the Tigers.
The rotation has had to be juggled because of Friday’s marathon, in which RH George Kirby started, while RH Logan Gilbert threw 34 pitches and RH Luis Castillo 15. The regular bullpen is sturdy ahead of closer RH Andres Munoz.
The focus at the trade deadline was the offence. They added 3B Eugenio Suarez and 1B Josh Naylor. It took a while to bear fruit, but the vision of solidifying the infield corners was realized in September.
Random M’s stats: Mariners are 27-29 vs. playoff teams … Run Differential +71 … On Sept. 5, the M’s lost and were in 2nd place, 3.5 games behind the Astros. Down the stretch, they were 17-4, starting on Sept. 6, including win streaks of 10 and 7 games. CDN Born: Josh Naylor (Mississauga, ON) and RHP Matt Brash (Kingston, ON).
ALDS Highlights: The four hours and 58 minutes, Game 5 marathon has given the rested Blue Jays the early advantage, especially in setting up their starting pitching. After the M’s lost ALDS Game 1 at home to the Tigers, it became a daunting challenge for them of beating Cy Young winner LHG Tarik Skubal twice in a row, Games 2-5. Skubal proved to be Skubal in both those games, but the M’s scratched and clawed their way to a pair of 3-2 wins that landed them this spot in the Final 4.
How Jays reached to ALCS: The turning point for the Jays came when they finally announced the 14-year extension in April added to the current season. It was a signal to other players inside the clubhouse, to fans in Blue Jays Nation and to the rest of baseball that the Jays were not just hoping to compete but expecting to compete for the next decade-and-a-half. But it wasn’t Vlad that carried the team during most of the regular season, unlike what became his starring role in the ALDs. Vlad posted the regular-season numbers of a budding superstar, still 26-years-old, but struggling at times to carry that burden of expectations.
In stepped George Springer, then Bo Bichette, Ernie Clement, plus the newly anointed No. 1 starting catcher Alejandro Kirk and others. There were special moments like Springer’s Canada Day slam, Bo’s pinch hit homer to win a game in Arlington, Mason Fluharty’s bases-loaded strikeout of Shohei Ohtani followed by a Mookie Betts groundout for his first career save, Kirk’s two-homer game on the final homestand, and many more. It was truly a total team offence.
At one point for at least a month in August and September, the hand-wringing was concerning the Jays’ relievers and whether this was a Toronto bullpen that could stand up on the big stage in the harsh glare of the post-season spotlight. Then they proved themselves and it became the starting rotation that was a concern. But, down the stretch, the key bullpen acquisitions at the deadline, RH Louis Varland and RH Seranthony Dominguez finally found their comfort levels. Pitching and Defence is still the Jays’ key, but the offence puts the ball in play and has been relentless.
Random Jays stats: Blue Jays are 41-29 vs. playoff teams … Run Differential +92 … On July 2, the Blue Jays beat the Yankees at Rogers Centre to move into a tie for first, where they remained through the remainder of the regular-season, the final 89 days. The Jays were 5-6 down the stretch, but hung on to tie the Yankees for top AL team with 94 wins, owning the tiebreaker. CDN Born: Vlad Guerrero Jr. (Montreal, Que.)
ALDS Highlights: The emergence of Trey Yesavage was the highlight of the Jays’ ALDS, with 5.1 no-hit innings and 11 strikeouts in his first October assignment. The Jays pounded the first 3 starters in the Yankee rotation, including LH Max Fried and LH Carlos Rodon and made rookie sensation, RH Cam Schlittler at least look mortal. The offence was all about Vlad stepping up to take charge, going toe-to-toe with Aaron Judge, but with a better performance by his supporting staff led by IF Ernie Clement, CF Daulton Varsho, C Alejandro Kirk and more. The yeoman effort was in back-to-back games by the Jays bullpen, accumulating 14.1 IP, in 14 combined appearances. The Jays have had their feet up watching the M’s since Oct. 8.
Tale of the Tape:
Catcher: Alejandro Kirk vs. Cal Raleigh … Advantage: M’s
One guy with a big dumper and another nicknamed Big Dumper, these two men are undoubtedly the two best catchers in the AL. However, what Raleigh has done over 162 games, setting a home run record for switch hitters and playing in 159 games, 121 as a catcher, gives him the edge over Kirk. The Jays sturdy catcher entered the season with doubts about his ability to handle the workload of a No. 1 starter. He had never made more than 89 starts behind the dish, but this year made 111 but seemed to have hit a wall, going 5-0for-50 down the stretch, until adrenaline seemingly kicked in on the final homestand.
First-base: Vlad Guerrero Jr. vs. Josh Naylor … Advantage: Jays
Naylor shows us the difference between being a good baserunner and being a fast baserunner. The G5 broadcasters offered up that Naylor’s is the second slowest runner in MLB behind Alejandro Kirk, yet still was able to steal 30 bases, caught just twice. While the lefty swinging Naylor is a good complementary piece on a winning team, Vlad is the leader of the pack on his squad, the player that teammates pause to watch take batting practice and feed off his in-game energy on both sides of the ball.
Second Base: Ernie Clement/IKF vs. Jorge Polanco/Leo Rivas … Advantage: Jays
While Polanco stepped up for the M’s to own his post-season at-bats vs. Tarik Skubal and also lined the walkoff single to right in G5, he has only played 38 games at second base, with Rivas adding another 34. Clement for the Jays has been a versatile, everyday piece to the infield, mostly starting at second base, ever since the injury to Bo Bichette and the return to the field of Andres Gimenez, with the latter sliding over to short. Kiner-Falefa, if he is on the roster, will mostly be used in late-inning defence with a lead, with Clement sliding over to third, since the M’s have no lefty starters.
Third-Base: Addison Barger/Clement vs. Eugenio Suarez … Advantage: M’s
Suarez has the advantage of ambushing pitches for home runs, playing solid defence and a really good flow. He has been around and is a leader in a lineup that otherwise can often be offensively challenged. They need Suarez to have a good series if they are going to win. Meanwhile, Barger should see most of the action at third-base, due to the righthanded rotation wheeled out by the M’s. Clement will often finish games in which the Jays hold the lead. But Suarez is the steadier lineup influence.
Shortstop: Andres Gimenez vs. J.P. Crawford … Advantage: Even
Obviously, the Jays would rather have Bo Bichette at shortstop for his offence and presence in the heart of the lineup, but Gimenez provides superb defence and has been lining the occasional hit in important post-season moments. Crawford has been a staplke in this M’s lineup forever, but his importance to the offence has diminished, being dropped to the 9-hole in the order. Without Bo this is a tie.
Centre Field: Daulton Varsho vs. Julio Rodriguez … Advantage: Even
Varsho’s presence in centre field has been vastly underrated by U.S. national media. Rodriguez has had a healthy and resurgent season in centre, but has been struggling lately with the bat. Meanwhile Varsho’s defence remains non-pareil while his ability to come up with clutch hits in big moments has been overshadowed by Vlad in October.
Left Field: Anthony Santander/Davis Schneider/Nathan Lukes/Myles Straw vs. Randy Arozarena … Advantage: M’s
Arozarena has been a career thorn in the side of the Jays, going back to his time with the Rays. Batting leadoff he can set the table for the rest of the lineup and is the catalyst in this series. Meanwhile for the Jays, Schneider may not see many starts, while Straw and Lukes will see a lot of finishes, with the Jays in the lead.
Right Field: Lukes/Straw/Santander/ George Springer vs. Victor Robles/Luke Raley … Advantage: Even
The dark horse winner that might separate this Jays group from the M’s is Nathan Lukes, who batting second vs. righthanders has been relentless with runners in scoring position and defensively. If they play Santander it might be to start games in left, while Straw is the ultimate outfield closer. Robles has been a terrific presence in the M’s lineup, but that hit-by-pitch on his right hand in Game 5 may affect home more than we think.
DH: Springer/Santander vs. Dominic Canzone/Mitch Garver … Advantage: Jays
The million-dollar question surrounds the status of Bo Bichette. Assuming he won’t be available for this round, that leaves the Jays’ player-of-the-year Springer to carry the load and bat leadoff. This matchup with the M’s duo is no contest, as Springer has had, arguably, the best season of his starry career, with 32 homers, 18 steals and a .309 average.
Rotation (4-man) … Advantage: M’s
The M’s have been acknowledged as having the best young rotation in baseball and there’s no argument from this quarter. However, the Jays have showed an ability to handle big-name, harder-throwing starting pitching rather than sloppy, soft-tossers with changeups and splitters they can locate and make anxious Jays chase. But for the Jays, the wildcard is Trey Yesavage and the good version of Gausman. But the Jays bullpen will be logging significant innings in what could become a low-scoring, tension filled septet of games.
Closer: RH Jeff Hoffman vs. RH Andres Munoz … Advantage: M’s
A clear advantage for the M’s is here. Munoz was 3-3, 1.73 ERA and 38 saves in 64 games. With Hoffman, it’s easy to point out that if you take away a half-dozen failed performances that he has solid closer numbers, but it’s the difference between a marathon and a sprint. When you stumble at the 13-mile mark of a marathon, you can overcome that, but one glitch in your sprint and there’s no chance for the gold. Hoffman must avoid that one stumble and push aside the shadow of his 15 hoers allowed in the ninth or later.
Bullpen minus closer … Advantage: Even
The Jays will not need four lefthanders on the roster to face the Mariners. They have three key switch-hitters and four lefthanders, but the most important righties are Suarez, J-Rod, Arozarena and Robles, so a bullpen without Justin Bruihl would be fine. The Jays added much-needed velocity out of the pen and Dominguez is capable of closing of his command is there. Little is another concern. For the M’s, they are shy of lefthanded power arms, but from the right side they have Brash, Eduard Bazardo, Carlos Vargas and Luke Jackson. Bullpens will be a key in this 7-game series.
GRIFF’S PICK: Jays in 6