Is Guerrero Jr to 3B move Back to the Future III

Buffalo’s 1B Spencer Horwitz knocking on MLB door

Jays win extends record when scoring exactly five runs to 13-0

The Blue Jays, on Sunday, beat the Pirates 5-4 to complete what fans and media had identified as the soft part of the schedule. They needed to be 10-6 over that stretch, dating back to May 17, in order to claw back to the .500 mark, but instead fell just short with a record of 9-7, including a disappointing 1-3 mark at Comerica Park against the Tigers. The Jays now head into a beast of a month of June, with 23 of 26 games against contenders. Were those two weeks an opportunity wasted?

“You want to get more wins, no matter who you’re playing,” Jays’ manager John Schneider said. “What I like is the path that we’re on offensively and it’s getting to be a little more consistent -- scoring in multiple innings.

“Technically it’s a soft spot in the schedule, but you’ve got to win. It doesn’t matter who you play, you have to get as many wins as you can. The way we’re playing right now is good. There’s always room to get better. But, especially here, winning the series at home. I like where we are right now. To look back two weeks ago, what’s done is done.”

The Vlad to third experiment begins

Following his first start at third base for the Blue Jays in four and a half years, since Sept. 27, 2019, Guerrero Jr called the hot corner always his favourite and a position about which he had approached the team and told them he can play there if they need him. He’s been taking groundballs every day.

Recall Vlad had played his entire minor-league career and his rookie 2019 season at the hot corner and, before COVID struck in the spring of 2020, had been working out at first base on the back fields in Dunedin, preparing for a switch of position. Then the industry shut down and when he returned for a shortened 2020 season, he fopund himself a somewhat reluctant 60-game first-baseman.

We know that’s true, because it should be recalled that in the winter of 2020-21, he travelled back to the Dominican Republic winter league for a handful of games, specifically to play third-base for Escogido, to show the Blue Jays he was still interested in third as his primary position. Though, he had adjusted to first base and earned a Gold Glove in 2022, he never forgot his first glove.

“If you put it that way, yes, I signed as a third baseman, so it is my favourite position,” Vlad said through team translator, Tito Lebron. “I’m the kind of person, though, that if you can play both corners the right way that will give your manager, your team more options, like today. Regardless if third is my favourite position, I’ll be ready first or third, wherever my team needs me. I trust myself at third base.”

What’s the frequency, Schneider?    

The beginning of Sunday’s game with the lineup was sublime, while the end was awkward in a defensive personnel sort of way. Starting the game with Guerrero Jr at third, Justin Turner at first and Davis Schneider in left, only four of those players in the starting lineup ended the game at the same position in which they started. Even in victory the question becomes is all that movement sustainable or is there, in fact, a master plan to begin and end with a defence that you trust?

“Today was a little bit of an exception, MGR Schneider explained. “I think it’s definitely sustainable because of the work that we do and how everyone prepares for it. That’s just my opinion, but I think most nights there’s not a whole lot of moving parts. The days that Vlad will be at third may be a little bit more, but we’ve (subbed defensively) with the outfield, we’ve done that with the infield before. I think if we do it every day it’s sustainable though.”

It says here and is my personal opinion that the decision to start Guerrero Jr at third-base on Sunday was not a random, one-off decision on a whim by manager John Schneider. The Blue Jays under this process-driven administration, do not usually offer random, one-off moments.

Sure, there is often madness to their methods, but it usually stems from well-structured, group discussion, using info per analytics. That info then gains consensus from GM Ross Atkins and company. So, if they find out in the short-term that Vlad can actually handle his original position at major-league average or better, then other Jays dominoes could fall and soon follow.

“It’s not a position change, by any means,” Schneider said of his starriest player. “But it does offer some flexibility, kind of like what we did with (Justin Turner) earlier. We expect to see Vladdy over there and try and maximize other guys on the roster.

Pay close attention to the Triple-A Bisons and their current best hitter, 1B Spencer Horwitz. If he is promoted to play regularly, it could produce a domino-effect with regard to Guerrero Jr and the current lineup.

In a struggling offence, Davis Schneider has earned more playing time and Kevin Kiermaier less. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has earned more playing time and Cavan Biggio and Ernie Clement less.

There has basically been a Bermuda triangle effect all season among three Blue Jays positions – left field, second base and third -- that is not working. The Jays have been playing with six bench players and starting two of them every game. There has got to be more positional stability in the Jays’ lineup moving forward.   

The Jays, prior to now, have insisted they are looking for an internal jumpstart to the offence, but have tried only two position players off a strong offensive Triple-A team in Buffalo – C Bryan Serven for Danny Jansen to open the season and UT Addison Barger, a man brought up and played out of position, going 1-for-18 before being returned to the Bisons. Someone will be next. The most likely candidate is the LH hitting Horwitz, batting over .330 with extra-base pop.   

The best laid plans of the off-season roster build have not worked out. The juice required to threaten for the division, or at least for a wildcard, didn’t pan out from the off-season signings led by DH Turner, DH Daniel Vogelbach and CF Kevin Kiermaier. It also didn’t come from what was expected as further offensive development from Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk. It didn’t come from a return to form of George Springer. Sure, Daulton Varsho has improved numbers, but he set himself a low bar in 2023. So, what comes next for the Jays as the days slip by, the schedule gets tougher and the offence stays dormant?

Imagination may have to be involved right now. Just using Vlad’s start at third-base as a launch point for the discussion of how best to utilize assets, how best to improve the offence, here’s a scenario that may or may not happen. An effective Guerrero Jr remains at third-base, with Horwitz being recalled to play first-base. Regular at-bats was a concern for any Bison, being promoted. Schneider can become an everyday player in left field, with Varsho becoming the everyday centre fielder. IKF can draw most of the game action at second base, with Kiermaier and Biggio, one catcher and one DH comprising the bench. With no options remaining, Clement would have to be DFA’d and if he clears waivers, could report to Buffalo.

“Vladdy’s comfortable over there,” the manager said. “Today was kind of a starting day, with everything he’s been working through to put himself in a position to be ready. He’s been swinging the bat well, so it worked out today.”

It could also work out well into the future.