Have Blue Jays improved team pitching in 2026
The pros and cons of Jays most likely 13-man staff as they defend AL crown
Happy New Year, everyone.
For 30 MLB teams, the 40-man major-league rosters remain delightfully fluid over the five months of baseball’s hot-stove season. This year, the speculation started the first week of November and continues into spring training in mid-February. That ability for your team to change direction at a moment’s notice, to add or subtract, to delight or disappoint a rabid fanbase, is what fuels amateur GMs all around baseball over the cold winter months.
The Blue Jays front office, as the new year dawns, has utilized and manipulated all of the mandated steps connected to MLB roster construction -- trades, free-agency, waivers, Rule 5, etc. arriving at what is, currently, a full, 40-man roster that includes 24 pitchers, a number that will have to be pared down to a 13-men, by opening day, March 27.
Following is a likely listing of the Jays’ Opening Day lucky 13 (plus one), if the ‘26 regular season was to open on Jan. 1. The ‘26 Toronto staff is projected, for purposes of this exercise, into the eight guaranteed contracts, one arbitration-eligible pitcher, plus the five hurlers, under club control, most likely to be included on Opening Day as the Jays host the Athletics. This, of course, is absent of injuries, further signings and trades, or, perceived, late upgrades from within by GM Ross Atkins and his earnest front-office advisors.
The salary information for the 14 likely Blue Jays, as of Jan. 1, was gleaned from the reliable website, Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Each player’s listed salary info is calculated to include ’26 guarantee, plus any previous signing bonus divided by length of the contract.
Rotation: RH Kevin Gausman, RH Dylan Cease, RH Trey Yesavage, RH Cody Ponce, RH Shane Bieber, (RH Jose Berrios).
Bullpen: RH Jeff Hoffman, RH Yimi Garcia, RH Tyler Rogers, RH Louis Varland, RH Braydon Fisher, LH Mason Fluharty, LH Brendon Little, LH Eric Lauer.
The one arb-eligible salary estimate that we list for Lauer is an educated guess from comparable arbitration players, as per MLBTradeRumors. The quintet of less experienced pitchers under club-control, not arb-eligible, we peg at an average of $900,000. In addition, we will indicate the final year of club control, prior to free agency, plus any remaining payroll guarantees beyond 2026.
Guaranteed contracts ranked by salary (8)
1-RH Dylan Cease … $25.3M … + $165M thru 2032 … 7 years/16.7 WAR
Bouquets: The Jays shocked the baseball world, early on, signing the top free-agent pitcher on the board, at seven years, $210-million. Let’s make one thing clear going in. Since Jays ownership does not seem to be worried about any perceived overpay when it comes to building a winner, we won’t even mention it as a factor. But the bold move just as the hot-stove was heating up certainly fired a shot across the bow of other AL contenders.
Cease would best be inserted into the rotation behind Gausman. The former White Sox and Padres star has elite swing-and-miss skills, with 214-plus strikeouts in five straight seasons, since the COVID shortened 2020 campaign. Cease has finished second and fourth in Cy Young voting and has not missed a start in six seasons, making 32+ in each. There is a Jays type. In ’25 with San Diego, his fastball averaged 97 mph, with a 29.8 K%.
Brickbats: The Jays will now be a bit down from last year in intangibles and leadership given the loss of Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt, who remain as free agents. When Cease arrived with the Jays he said in his opening media session that he was looking for a landing spot that would help him maximize his skills and continue to improve. Contrast that to Scherzer who arrived to help the team in any way he could on the field and off. The Jays, with Trey Yesavage and Cody Ponce, could use some veteran games-that-aren’t-their-games, arm-around-the-shoulder-in-the-dugout leaders.
The 30-year-old Cease, despite his start-to-start, year-to-year durability, has had trouble going deep into games. He has walked 430 batters in 1015.1 career innings. Cease finished 10 of his 33 starts in ’25 with fewer than five innings, also logging 11 starts with 100-plus pitches. So there is no question he can go 100 or more pitches and take the ball every five days, but he has to become more efficient for this salary. His four worst ’25 outings involved allowing 26 earned runs in 19.2 innings. Go get ‘em, Pete Walker.
2-RH Kevin Gausman … $23.0M … Free Agent after ’26 … 11.2 WAR in 4 yrs. With Jays
Bouquets: Gausman has earned the right to be the Jays’ Opening Day starter in ’26, March 27 vs. the A’s. Another durable Jays starter, he has averaged 31 starts and 183 innings in his four-year Jays tenure. His fastball velocity in ’25 crept up to 94.5 mph and his advanced baseball IQ has allowed him to make needed adjustments to hitters who had been thwarting him by laying off pitches at the knees anticipating splitters down, that would end as balls, and then looking fastball at the top of the zone. Now after an adjustment to include 95 mph at the knees, hitters must lay off pitches down at their own risk.
In 2014, 12 years ago, Gausman used his four-seamer 74% of the time, while in ’25 it was adjusted to 53.7%. He goes with a fastball/splitter mix 91-percent of the time, adding 9% sliders. At 34-years-old, he posted his lowest opponent batting average since 2021. Kevin wears No. 34 to honour Roy Halladay, a fellow Coloradan hero growing up.
Brickbats: At some point every aging pitcher hits a wall. Sure, 34 may not sound old, but baseball is getting younger and Gausman isn’t. Consider that among 30 teams, Gausman is one of just 12 current starting pitchers that will be 35 or older on Opening Day. Meanwhile, as a reflection of front offices making adjustments to thought process, there are 17 starters remaining at 35-or-older on the free-agent market, a danger sign for veterans like Gausman who, himself, is about to reach free agency after ’26. By mid-season, this coming year, if he remains healthy, the Jays might consider offering him a short-term extension. He’s still got bullets and is a quality human.
3-RH Jose Berrios … $18.7M … + $48M thru 2028, Berrios may opt-out after ‘26
Bouquets: Berrios is not listed third in this analysis because he is No. 3 in the rotation, but because he will be third highest paid pitcher in 2026. He was obtained from the Twins midway through the ’21 season, for UT Austin Martin and RH Simeon Woods-Richardson. The importance of his choosing to sign an off-season seven-year deal with the Jays for $131-million back in the winter of 2021-22 cannot be overstated. It sent a signal, at the time, to other teams and free agents that the Jays were going to be in it to win. He has been a key presence.
Despite all the noise about Jose’s, perceived, recent underperformance, his undeniably below average analytics cannot hide the very positive, indisputable, fact that in 138 starts with the Jays in five seasons, the team has compiled a record of 87-51, which is .630 win percentage. That includes his being starter in 20 of the Jays 94 wins in ’26. And isn’t that what baseball is all about? There is still much left in the tank at 31-years-old … maybe just not with the Jays.
Brickbats: Face it. Berrios cannot be realistically projected into the Blue Jays season-opening five-man rotation. That being said, he also cannot be useful in the current bullpen. At this point, with an opt-out on the horizon following ’26, not that he will be seeking controversy, but Berrios presence would be a distraction at spring training and beyond.
He must be moved to a team with which he will be comfortable, prior to the spring, and the Jays must be willing to eat much of his salary. Perhaps, he could be dealt to teams like the Cardinals, Giants or Twins. Jose is surely worth $14M to any of those teams for the next three years, through age 34. The Jays would be asked to eat $24M and get some type of second-tier prospect in return. It would be the best outcome for both sides.
So how did the Berrios situation get to this? The 31-year-old Puerto Rican is a proud, hard-working athlete and was on a streak of seven straight full seasons with exactly 32 games started, when the decision was made to remove him from the’25 rotation, with two starts remaining to hit 32 again. After one relief appearance, the first in his career, he came up with a minor injury and was placed on the IL for the first time in his career.
Berrios was left off the Division Series roster so they could carry Justin Bruihl, a fourth lefthander vs. the Yankees. Bruihl was a non-factor, as expected. Berrios was left off the ALCS and World Series roster and made the decision not to stay with the club as they took on the Dodgers. His absence was noticed as he was never introduced on the foul lines, with the club offering no explanation, except later, when pressed.
It’s been three years of a cracked relationship. It began to rupture at the Wildcard series in 2023, when he was removed after 12 batters vs. the Twins, even though he was pitching well. The adrenaline was surging. Minnesota was his old team, he had a point to prove and he was dealing in zeroes. The Jays lost that game and the series…and maybe Berrios. In 2024, with Berrios still providing a solid example of work ethic for his younger teammates, the Jays won 74 games, with Berrios the starter in 21 of those victories.
It goes deeper. Yes, replacing him in the ’25 rotation worked out for the team, with rookie Trey Yesavage stepping up and the Jays capturing the division, advancing to Game 7 of the Fall Classic. But consider that even when the Jays needed an emergency starter, late September, they chose “bullpen” rather than Berrios. There’s more. Jose finished with 166 innings. His contract has a $1M bonus for 300 combined innings, 2025-26; another mill’ for 350 IP and even more for 375 and 400 innings. In the Jays pen, he will not have that chance.
Perhaps the Jays would actually prefer him to opt out of his final two years, but, in the meantime, what to do with him in ’26 and would he really consider leaving a guaranteed $48M on the table. The answer for Atkins is to find somewhere he will be happy. Just do it.
4-RH Shane Bieber … $16.0M … Free Agent after ’26 season … Career 18.5 WAR
Bouquets: In parts of eight MLB seasons, Bieber has won a Cy Young Award in the shortened 2020 season with the Guardians, plus a 4th and 7th place Cy finish. He is 66-34, lifetime, in 141 starts, with 995 strikeouts in 883.1 innings. If he remains healthy and continues to rebound from TJ, he is a mid-rotation bargain in today’s day and age.
Bieber had not appeared in any major-league game since his two starts with the Guardians early in 2024, undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. He was making steady progress during his rehab when he was traded to the Jays at the end of July. His fastball in ’25 that he threw 35.7% of the time, clocked in at 92.6 mph, with Bieber staying unpredictable by using five different pitches at least 13% of the time. Twenty months post TJ surgery, his stuff is likely to tick up in ’26.
He was elevated to the Jays on August 22 and was a steadying influence down the stretch and through the post-season. He then surprised the baseball world when he opted in on his $16-million player option for ’26, a deal signed with the Guardians heading into his rehab season. The feeling was that a healthy Bieber could have earned far more.
Brickbats: Hmm! The “glass half-full” reaction to the quick acceptance of Bieber’s player option is, yeah, great, he must have loved his three months as a Blue Jay and wanted a chance to run it back and try again for the ring with his teammates. The “glass half-empty” reaction was, uh-oh, maybe Shane was feeling a little sumpin’-sumpin’ post Tommy John and was reluctant to negotiate with another team and then be asked to go through the full medical process and perhaps be rejected. With that in mind, then came the revelation by Ross Atkins a week after the season that Bieber should be ready for the start of spring training, encountering a little forearm tightness. Double uh-oh.
The big question at this point becomes, why was a guy with any sort of forearm tightness pitching the 11th inning of Game 7 of the World Series?
5-RH Jeff Hoffman … $11.7M … + $11M remaining thru 2027
Bouquets: At the end of the ’25 season, at his media wrap, GM Ross Atkins quietly suggested that Jeff Hoffman was okay if they wanted to go and get another closer. The assertion is that it was fine with him. It hasn’t happened yet, but if upgrading at closer is a real worry, it’s the least of the Jays’ pitching problems heading into the ’26 season. In his first year in the ninth-inning role, Hoffman was 9-7, 4.37 ERA, with 33 saves and seven blown in 71 appearances. Fans understandably remember all his terrible outings. But in digging deep to find positives, it should be noted, in the 59 games in which Hoffman did not allow a home run, he was 9-2, with 29 saves and a 1.07 ERA, allowing seven earned runs in 58.2 innings. Surely a backhanded compliment.
Brickbats: However, on the other side of the Hoffman coin, on the way to an AL East title and to the World Series, during which in G7 he yielded a game-tying homer with two outs to go, to win a championship, the soon to be 33-year-old had allowed 15 regular-season homers, all in the eighth inning or later — a major-league record. In those 12 games with home-runs, Hoffman was 0-5, with four saves, three blown and a 25.07 ERA. Jekyll and Hyde? In ’26, there will be nowhere to hide.
6-RH Tyler Rogers … $8.7M … + $25M thru 2028, club option $9M for ‘29
Bouquets: Ever since the Jays lucked into the side-arming setup man, Adam Cimber from the Marlins in 2021, they have been in love with the idea of adding a submariner to the mix whenever they have a chance. They had acquired Nick Sandlin from the Guardians a year ago, but injuries ended that asset and he was released when off-season rosters were set. But now they feel they have their man, Tyler Rogers, a proven down-under specialist with a unique delivery, a bottom-three lowest arm-slot (-61-degrees) hurler among righthanders in all MLB. Rogers signed a three year deal, plus club option. As we indicated in the lead-in, don’t worry about an overpay. This is one inflated Rogers bill to which most fans will not object.
Tyler, whose twin brother, Taylor, also pitches in the majors, is destined to become a Rogers Centre fan favourite. He throws sinkers and sliders and maxes out at 83.5 mph, yet he is in the top 6% of lowest exit velocity and opponents barrel rate, as well as the best MLB percentile of walk rate. Rogers did not make his MLB debut until age 28 and since 2021 has a combined 8.8 WAR, averaging 75 games with a 2.71 ERA.
Brickbats: Rogers is already 35-years-old, but it would seem he has plenty of bullets left, especially at the arm angle from which he delivers. Tyler has led the league in appearances four times, including 2025, in which he was traded from the Giants to the Mets. Is there a wall in his future over the length of his contract?
7-RH Yimi Garcia … $7.5M … Free Agent after ’26 season
Bouquets: Garcia has been injured for significant parts of the last two seasons, but when healthy does the Seranthony role, only better. Yimi has a six-pitch mix, highlighted by a 95.8 mph four-seamer and enough command allowing him to enter games with runners on base and escape. He has 469 Ks in 419.1 innings, with a respectable 1.061 WHIP. Yimi also has an ability to close games, topping out at 15 saves with the Marlins in 2021 before being traded to the Astros where he became a setup guy..
Brickbats: At 35-years-old and being IL’d for significant periods the past two years, the Jays need to have other power options for the same setup role. That is where the 2026 late July MLB trade deadline comes in, with teams likely able to restock a bullpen for the final two months. Amazingly, Yimi has never reached a 1.0 WAR in any of his 11 seasons.
8-RH Cody Ponce … $6.0M … + $22M thru 2028 (+$2M bonus)
Bouquets: While dominating the Korean league in 2025, he told the story of how his wife predicted, in-season, that he would get an offer of three years, $30-million. When the Jays called with that exact offer, it was one he couldn’t refuse. Ponce was MVP of the KBO, going 17-1, with a 1.89 ERA in 29 starts, fanning a league record 252 batters in 180.2 innings. He was originally grabbed No. 55 overall by the Brewers in the second round of the 2015 draft, the pick immediately before the Jays. Did Toronto covet him back then? Instead, Toronto selected RH Brady Singer, who chose the Florida Gators vs. being a Jay. Ponce was terrible in two his two MLB seasons with the Pirates, 2020-21, but his 4-seamer has bumped from 93.2 to around 96 mph. He also has a cutter, changeup and curve. A back-end bargain.
Brickbats: Can Ponce find his Fountain of Youth? There are still some worries about a 31-year-old pitcher with no prior MLB success and only one successful year as a fulltime starter in Asia. Ponce chose a Pacific Rim job in 2022 over bouncing back and forth between the minors and MLB long relief. Yes, he made adjustments, but we have to see how they translate with a bigger baseball and better hitters. His first three years in Japan, with Nippon Ham and Rakuten were pedestrian, but his 2025 numbers are what the Jays are counting on. Their immediate inspiration for taking this chance was likely Eric Lauer.
Arbitration-Eligible (1)
1-LH Eric Lauer … est. $4.4M … Free Agent after ’26 season
Bouquets: With the evolution of most MLB rotations into “hun’ and done”, pitchers that can provide length in relief and the occasional start, as can Lauer, are more and more important. The fact that he is lefthanded in support of an all righthanded rotation adds to his value. Another pitcher who rediscovered himself overseas. After being released by Brewers, Pirates and Astros, he made seven solid starts for Kia in the KBO in ’24.
Brickbats: Lauer has spent 10 years as a pro, playing in 10 different minor-league cities and three in the majors. Just when he’s getting comfortable in, possibly, an important role with the Jays, he is set to become a free agent at the end of’26. Perhaps the 30-year-old will be offered an acceptable multi-year deal to keep him in a Jays uniform. If Bieber is not ready for Opening Day, Lauer is an option for the No. 5 role in April.
Under Club Control (5)
1-LH Brendon Little … 29-years-old … Free agent after ’31 season
Bouquets: His career was on rapid ascendancy in 2024-25, with his diving knuckle curve, combined with a moving sinker at 93.4 mph, producing a whiff rate at the top end of the MLB scale last season. He recorded 91 strikeouts in 68.1 innings, with 30 holds in 79 games. Is he a No.1 lefty? The Jays thought so in 2025 but his season arc, as summer moved to fall, was headed in the wrong direction.
Brickbats: Down the stretch, Little struggled and in six post-season games, he was 0-2, 11.25 ERA in 4 IP, allowing two homers, with a 3.000 WHIP. He was not going to be trusted to pitch in the World Series until Jays ran out of relievers in the 17th inning of Game 3, allowing a walkoff to Freddie Freeman in the 18th. When opposing hitters stopped chasing his breaking balls early in counts, he found himself getting into hitter’s counts and is going to have to make his own adjustments moving forward. When hitters became more discerning, likely between July 28 and Sept. 1, Little allowed 14 hits and 10 walks in 11.1 innings, with 8.74 ERA, throwing 123 strikes and 112 balls. His body language in big situations did not give fans confidence. He is going to have to earn his role in the spring.
2-RH Louis Varland … 28-years-old … Free agent after ’31 season
Bouquets: Varland is a bulldog, who was willing to pitch every day. The epitome of who he is came after he had allowed a homer to Aaron Judge in ALDS G3, then another to Jazz Chisolm before being replaced. After the game he was asked if he could start a bullpen game the very next day in G4. He took the ball within 24 hours and pitched 1.1 shutout innings as the Jays went on to win. Varland, who grew up in Minnesota, admitted shock to being dealt from the Twins with just over a year of MLB service time. If Hoffman struggles as closer, early, look for Varland to be given a ninth inning opportunity, along with Yimi Garcia.
Brickbats: A criticism of Varland is about being overly emotional in critical moments. He went through a stretch from Aug. 15 to Sept. 3, with an ERA of 11.74 in nine games. The key to being a high leverage reliever is to leave failure at the door on your way home. He perhaps needs to be better at that.
3-RH Braydon Fisher … 25-years-old … Free agent after ’32 season
Bouquets: Fisher was not on any fan’s radar in the first month of the season, but when John Schneider was asked, in a pre-game session, in May, who might be “next man up” in the bullpen, he mentioned Fisher’s name. He made his MLB debut on May 11, finishing 10th in AL rookie of the year voting. He won games in three straight appearances, in four days, with the third W being at Tampa vs. the Rays, pitching a pair of extra innings, Sept. 15, striking out the side with the tying run perched at third base in the 11th. Fisher was 7-0, 2.70 ERA in 52 games, relying mainly on a slider, curveball, with a 4-seamer at 95.5 mph.
Brickbats: We haven’t seen much of any downside for Fisher, given the supporting role that he will be expected to fill. Maybe he’s a little too friendly with media in the clubhouse and if that’s the worst we can come up with, then he’ll be alright.
4-LH Mason Fluharty … 24-years-old … Free agent after ’32 season
Bouquets: The moment that made his career and earned him a spot on every post-season roster was a key turnaround moment of the Jays regular season. On Aug. 10 at Dodger Stadium, facing a series sweep and nursing a 5-4 lead, the main closer, Hoffman, walked the first two batters in the ninth, followed by a sac-bunt and a third walk to load the bases with one out. Fluharty entered as the Jays’ eighth pitcher. His task? Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, poised for a walkoff, a sweep. The rookie fanned Ohtani on a 9-pitch, full count, then induced a Betts groundout to end the game. Two former MVPs with a season on the line. As the season wound down and through the playoffs, Fluharty became as reliable as Little, especially with runners on base.
Brickbats: Fluharty has had his moments but has not yet proven he can withstand the pressure of being the fulltime, No. 1 lefty specialist. All the signs are there. Even with Fluharty, Little and Lauer from the left side, they could still use a proven southpaw reliever.
5-RH Trey Yesavage … 22-years-old… Free agent after ’32 season
Bouquets: Yesavage rampaged through all four levels of the Jays’ minor-league system in his first pro season, finally called to the majors in September, stunning the baseball world with his first start, then once more in his first post-season start in the ALDS, in which he dominated the Yankees in Game 2 at Rogers Centre, working 5.1 no-hit innings, with a walk and 11 strikeouts. He is being counted on in ’26 but will battle an innings limit.
Brickbats: There is always a danger in handing an automatic starting role to a pitcher with little MLB experience. The Jays already know that, given the recent experience of Alek Manoah, who swept into the rotation with a big personality and outstanding early results, including an all-star game showcase, wired for sound, but not yet wired for success. The MLB Network offered him a weekly segment the next spring. He then challenged Gerrit Cole to cross an on-field logo and confronted hitters with a glare as they went back to the dugout. It was all too much. I am confident Manoah will bounce back with the Angels. The Jays are hoping Yesavage has been paying attention and can skip any bounce-back drama.