SUMMARY THROUGH ROUND 1: Over the four 2024 wild-card series, contested in the best-of-three format, Griff’s picks correctly predicted three of four series, missing only on the Royals, who swept the disappointing Orioles in two games at Camden Yards. The home teams were 1-3, with only the Padres taking advantage of hosting the entire series.
6-Detroit Tigers (86-76; 2-0) vs. 2-Cleveland Guardians (92-69)
G1 Oct. 5 1:08 p.m. G2 Oct. 7 4:08 p.m. *G5 Oct. 12 (if necessary) at Progressive Field
G3 Oct. 9 TBD *G4 Oct. 10 (if necessary) at Comerica Park
G1 Probables: RHP Reese Olson vs. RHP Tanner Bibee
Season Series: The Guardians were 7-6 vs. the Tigers despite being out scored 60-50. Cleveland won four of the final five matchups, ending the season-series on July 30.
How Tigers win: Tarik Skubal is the consensus Cy Young Award winner and the best starter in this series. He will pitch Game 2 on Monday, with an extra day of rest. Tigers win the series if they can navigate the pitching maze of Game 1, and then if Skubal does his Skubal thing in Game 2. They need to go up 2-0 in games coming to Comerica. MGR A.J. Hinch is unpredictable with his bullpen usage and puts his young players in their best position to win, meaning a lot of pinch-hitting. He’s been like one of those plate-spinners on the old Ed Sullivan Show, his best work is when things start to wobble, but it’s unlikely that can last for 13 wins over four rounds.
How Guardians win: The series schedule is bizarrely set up to favour the Guardians, with the deeper, more role-specific bullpen. Closer RHP Emmanuel Clase will likely be runner-up to Skubal in Cy Young voting and, if MGR Steven Vogt has the lead in late innings he can use Clase every game, with the only back-to-back possibility being between Games 3-4. He also has CDN RH Cade Smith. Top-to-bottom, the depth of the Guardians relief can be the difference. The Cleveland offence need production other than from 3B Jose Ramirez and 1B Josh Naylor.
Blue Jays Connections: Tigers – None; Guardians – OF Lane Thomas; LHP Matt Boyd.
Griff’s Predicted Winner: Guardians
5-New York Mets (89-73; 2-1) vs. 2-Philadelphia Phillies (95-67)
G1 Oct. 5 4:08 p.m. G2 Oct. 6 4:08 p.m. *G5 Oct.11 (if necessary) @ Citizens Bank Park
G3 Oct. 8 TBD *G4 Oct. 9 (if necessary) @ Citi Field
G1 Probables: RHP Kodai Senga vs. RHP Zack Wheeler
Season Series: The Phils were 7-6 vs. the Mets, outscoring them 69-59. The 13 games included a split of two games in London, in June. The Mets used a series in Sept. winning 3 of 4 which proved important because that was followed by a loss and two rainouts in Atlanta, setting up Monday’s doubleheader and the stressful last four games.
How Mets win: The momentum of dramatic comeback wins, in Atlanta keyed by a SS Francisco Lindor homer and then in Thursday’s NLWC Game 3 at Milwaukee via a 9th inning, three run blast by 1B Pete Alonso. Those heroics balance against the historical handicap of the Phillies not having played in five days. The big boys are coming up big. CL Edwin Diaz cannot stumble.
How Phillies win: The lineup comes at you hard right out of the box, with DH Kyle Schwarber, SS Trea Turner, 1B Bryce Harper and RF Nick Castellanos. If the Mets can shut those guys down, then they have a chance. But that’s not easy. The Phils advantage is in the rotation, with Wheeler, RH Aaron Nola and LH Cristopher Sanchez. Neither team has a lockdown bullpen.
Blue Jays Connections: Mets – LHP Danny Young, RHP Sean Reid-Foley (IL), CCH John Gibbons; CCH Danny Barnes; Phillies – RHP Jeff Hoffman, RHP Taijuan Walker.
Griff’s Predicted Winner: Mets
5-Kansas City Royals (86-76; 2-0) vs. 1-New York Yankees (95-67)
G1 Oct. 5 6:38 p.m. G2 Oct. 7 7:38 p.m. *G5 Oct.12 (if necessary) @ Yankee Stadium
G3 Oct. 9 TBD *G4 Oct. 10 (if necessary) @ Kauffman Stadium
G1 Probables: RHP Gerritt Cole vs. RHP Michael Wacha
Season Series: Yankees were 5-2 vs. the Royals, outscoring them 42-24, allowing just 3.4 runs per game. This included winning 3-of-4 at Kauffman Stadium, June 10-13.
How Royals win: They have lined up their best three pitchers, Wacha, then young LHP Cole Ragans and RHP Seth Lugo. Need to ride the talent and exuberance of SS Bobby Witt Jr. and the experience and leadership of C Sal Perez. The Royals are a Blue Jays role model moving forward in showing what can be accomplished in one off-season, but it’s the bullpen that is the Achilles heel and may not match Royals glory years of the mid-‘teens.
How Yankees win: This looks like it should be a walk-over for the team with the best record in the AL, but even 95 wins does not seem like it was enough. It may even be a little disappointing, for a group led by a pair of Top 3 MVP guys, CF Aaron Judge and RF Juan Soto. Will win by outscoring their opponent and that will happens if Judge and Soto receive any support from bottom half of the lineup. Cole will start twice, either G4 if they are trailing or G5 if they lead the series after three games. The pen has been shaky but, still, Holmes is where the heart is.
Blue Jays Connections: Royals - SS Paul DeJong; Yankees – RHP Marcus Stroman, LHP Tim Mayza, IF Jon Berti.
Griff’s Predicted Winner: Yankees
4-San Diego Padres (93-69; 2-0) vs. 1-Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64)
G1 Oct. 5 8:38 p.m. G2 Oct. 6 8:03 p.m. *G5 Oct.11 (if necessary) @ Dodger Stadium
G3 Oct. 8 TBD *G4 Oct. 9 (if necessary) @ Petco Park
G1 Probables: RHP Dylan Cease vs. RHP Yosh Yamamoto
Season Series: The Padres took the season-series 8-5, outscoring the Dodgers 62-56. The season unusually started with these teams in a two-game series in South Korea on March 20-21, before rejoining the rest of baseball and opening again on March 28.
How Padres win: Hard to overstate the importance of rookie CF Jackson Merrill, who was the difference maker in a lineup full of starry veterans. Padres pitching additions have been key to putting them to the point where they were even chasing the Dodgers for the division. RH Michael King (Yankees) and Cease (White Sox) are key acquisitions as were LH Tanner Scott (Marlins) and RH Jason Adam (Rays) in the bullpen. So many that have been in the post-season and understand what’s needed. Will miss RH Joe Musgrove.
How Dodgers win: DH Shohei Ohtani, OF Teoscar Hernanez and Yamamoto changed the look and feel of this Dodgers team, back when the season began. At mid-season, they reached out for more help – RHP Jack Flaherty (Tigers), UT Tommy Edman (Cards), CF Kevin Kiermaier (Jays), and RHP Michael Kopech (White Sox), who has assumed the role of closer. These two teams have played two post season series in the past five years, splitting the pair.
Blue Jays Connections: Padres – CCH Tim Leiper, CCH Mike McCoy, RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Jason Adam, IF Mason McCoy (IL); Dodgers – OF Teoscar Hernandez, OF Kevin Kiermaier, LHP Anthony Banda, RHP Daniel Hudson.
Griff’s Predicted Winner: Padres
Summary of predicted Division Series winners: Guardians, Mets, Yankees, Padres