Griff’s Blue Jays update through 68 games

Hottest team in baseball finishes key 12-game stretch in Philly

BLUE JAYS 26-MAN ROSTER BREAKDOWN:

Latest Update: The most useless stat in modern major-league baseball is the one on many website standings pages called “post-season projection”. At one point, just prior to their current hot streak, back on May 7, after the Jays lost in walk-off fashion to the Angels, the Blue Jays were listed at a single-digit projection for any kind of a playoff spot. All of a sudden, after a 22-10 heater over 36 days, the probablility number is now at 51.8%. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing. This is not like the NFL, where if you start the year 0-4 it’s times for panic. That’s why we have been saying in this space, and earlier in the season, on the Exit Philosophy podcast. We maintained that all it would take for the Jays to become relevant again is a streak of 8-10 wins or 14 of 16. That is exactly what had transformed the naturally pessimistic outlook of many Blue Jays fans. The team can be better, we know that. But fans should relax and enjoy the moment when it arrives, because you never know when it will turn around again.

The Blue Jays had finished up a relatively benign portion of the schedule on June 1, completing a four-game sweep of the Athletics, scoring 39 runs against a horrible Sacramento pitching staff. The feeling, at that point, was that the next 12 games vs. the Phillies (twice), the Twins and the Cardinals would tell the true story for the then-seen-as-overachieving Jays. Let’s add the upcoming series vs. the Diamondbacks, who are talented, but have not been playing well, to that daunting stretch and make it 15 games of important baseball prior to the arrival of the White Sox on June 20, officially welcoming summer to Toronto. Yes, that stretch is when the Jays would find out if they were for real. Consider that heading into Friday’s game in Philly, the Jays are 7-2 in that designated stretch, with six games to go. They can be better, yes, but enjoy the feeling while you can. MLB’s 162-game roller-coaster never disappoints. It’s not been easy. Consider that against teams currently under .500, the Jays through June 12, are 20-9. Facing teams that are currently over .500, Toronto is 18-21. The analysis there is that they have played 39 of 68 gamers against teams with a winning record. Bottom line is that at the end of the season you look back and regret not taking care of business against teams you should beat. Never apologize. Just do it.

Starting Pitchers: RH Kevin Gausman; RH Jose Berrios; RH Chris Bassitt; RH Bowden Francis; The No. 5 role has been shared as, basically, a Bullpen Day, that will likely be led by any combo of LH Eric Lauer, RH Spencer Turnbull and others (IL RH Max Scherzer and RH Alek Manoah)

Summary: The Jays have been able to compete and as of June 12 lead the AL Wild Card race despite an obvious need to solidify not only the No. 5 spot in the rotation left open, due to the injury to RH Max Scherzer, but also, more surprisingly by the failure of incumbent No. 4 starter RH Bowden Francis, who has not been able to duplicate or add in any area at all to his surprise emergence in the final two months of 2024. Video has seemingly allowed MLB hitters to adjust to the quirky 29-year-old while Bowden, himself, has been unable to add, or make positive adjustments to what he did in Aug.-Sept. The current situation regarding the Jays’ 4-5 spots is unsustainable for a playoff team hopeful.

Heading to the series in the City of Brotherly Love, the Jays are 25-16 in the 41 assignments handled by the Big 3, but are 13-14 in the 27 starting outings from Francis (13), LH Easton Lucas (4), LH Eric Lauer (3), RH Paxton Schultz (2), RH Jose Urena (2), RH Yariel Rodriguez (1), RH Braydon Fisher (1) and Scherzer (1). The combined numbers for those 4-5 starters in their 27 games are: 4-11; 6.75 ERA; 105.1 IP; 121H; 79ER; 41BB; 90K; 36HR. The one number that is truly disturbing inside the Jays dugout is home runs. If these guys stayed together in manning the 4-5 spots, they would combine to log 210 innings and allow a massive 72 home runs. Let’s explore the possible rotation solutions.

The Big Three: RH Kevin Gausman is re-emerging as, at least, the co-No. 1 of this rotation group and a good sign of that is when, even without his best stuff, the Jays are able to win. But more often, he has stepped up with a fastball that he can spot at the top and the bottom of the strike zone at up to 97 mph, meaning teams cannot lay off his splitter when they see a pitch heading down in the zone. When RH Jose Berrios can find the inside corner of the zone with a 2-seamer that starts off the plate inside vs. lefty hitters, he can be devastating. He lost that ability for a start or two but has it back. He competes on every pitch. RH Chris Bassitt is a solid, manic, entertaining No. 3 starter, who needs his run support.

The Last Two Starters: So, who’s got next for the rotation? Here is a proposed (temporary) solution that would hopefully lead to some answers for MGR John Schneider and pitching CCH Pete Walker. Option Francis to AAA-Buffalo to give him time out of the spotlight to straighten out his problems and make his adjustments. He has one minor-league option remaining and in terms of using it, if not now, when? Assign LH Lauer and RH Turnbull the Nos. 4-5 roles, not as openers, but as 80-plus-pitch starters. Turnbull, 32, is throwing 91-92 mph has made a total of just 34 starts in the last five seasons, missing the entire ’22 season, following Tommy John surgery. It’s a roll of the dice. Scherzer would then continue his injury-rehab, starting for the Bisons. Whenever Scherzer is ready, he can replace Lauer OR Turnbull with the other man going to long relief. The front office could monitor closely the work of Francis at Triple-A and make a call on if and when he is ready to return. That gives you four possibilities for two starting roles, with a rehabbing RH Alek Manoah on the horizon for the final 50 games of the season.

Bullpen: CL Jeff Hoffman; LH Brendon Little; RH Yariel Rodriguez; LH Mason Fluharty; RH Chad Green; RH Erik Swanson; RH Braydon Fisher; RH Lauer/Turnbull (IL - RH Nick Sandlin; RH Yimi Garcia).

Summary: The guy that has really stepped up to find an important role is RH Y-Rod who has rediscovered his swagger and confidence as a primary setup man, occasional closer and a 4-plus out reliever. LH Little has unhittable stuff but, most times, can’t be counted on for more than one inning because he relies on swing-and-miss outside the strike zone and most times needs a day off because he throws so many pitches to complete his assignment. But his stuff is great. His southpaw partner is LH Fluharty and both men are solid vs. righthanded hitters. RH Sandlin started the season as an important middle-inning, runners-on-base arm, but has been on the IL. He is working on a rehab option with mixed results, but after Francis’s next start, if the results have not improved might be the time to make a move. RH Green and RH Swanson are important because the Jays are constantly in leverage and can’t use the same leverage guys every day.

Don’t look at the ERA of CL Hoffman because it will have you scratching your head. Fact is, he has allowed 11 earned runs in three of his appearances which will skew that ERA number all year and likely cost him any all-star consideration. But Hoffman has been more than solid, stepping up and willing to go 4+ outs. The Jays miss Garcia as that other guy who can close when Hoffman has worked two straight or three out of four, but Y-Rod is the new Yimi.

Catchers: Alejandro Kirk; Tyler Heineman.

Summary: Kirk is the Blue Jays team MVP through 68 games. He had earned his first roster spot on the basis of his impeccable bat-to-ball skills as a 21-year-old, so when he was off to a slow start at the plate this year, critics began calling him a defence-first receiver, or that the new workload with Danny Jansen gone was getting to him. Kirk is on pace for 117 starts behind the plate, when he has never made more than 89 before. Keep your fingers crossed. My favourite Kirk two-strike stat is that after pitchers are ahead of him 0-2, his average is .327 with two homers. Heineman is the ideal backup for Kirk, but is he is asked to catch every day, it becomes a real issue.

Infielders: 1B Vlad Guerrero Jr, UT Ernie Clement; SS Bo Bichette; 3B/RF Addison Barger; IL 2B Andres Gimenez; UT Davis Schneider.

Summary: Even as they continue to wait for the annual Vlad offensive explosion of power and production, the Jays have learned a tremendous amount about themselves and the personnel that they actually have on hand. While 2B Gimenez was on the IL, the players that benefitted were 3B/RF Barger and UT Ernie Clement. The Barger emergence was in showing his power, bat speed, versatility and the enthusiasm with which he plays the game. Clement is the ultimate “utility player” starting games at all four infield positions and excelling (except not so much at first base). So, what to do now, with Gimenez back. He is playing and needs to play. He just should never bat cleanup again. In fact, over his last 12 games surrounding his time on the IL, Gimenez is hitting 14-for-41-.341, with three walks, one K and .850 OPS. Does that cut into the playing time of Barger and Clement? The truth is that in baseball things have a way of taking care of themselves. Meanwhile, SS Bichette since his important pinch-hit homer in Texas, in 14 games (12-2 team record), is batting .298, with four HR, 15 RBIs and an .889 OPS.

Outfielders: OF-DH George Springer; OF Myles Straw; OF Jonatan Clase; OF Will Robertson; OF Alan Roden, UT Schneider (IL OF-DH Anthony Santander; CF Daulton Varsho; Nathan Lukes).

Summary: If this six-man roster of outfielders looks like a bus ride at spring training, you wouldn’t be far off. But somehow, with CF Varsho and RF-DH Santander on the IL, the Jays continue to move forward. Very quietly, the acquisition of OF Straw as a throw-in for International Money that had been futilely destined for Japanese free-agent RH Roki Sasaki is beginning to look pretty shrewd. Clase is not ready to be a starter and was brought up ahead of schedule, but he has enough tools to be a fifth outfielder and has already had a big home run that led directly to a win. Springer has likely given all that he can to the cause and his hot-streak timing could not be better. For Springer’s contributions, the cavalry is on the way (Santander and Varsho).

IMMEDIATE FUTURE:

The lesson learned from the Jays recent success is that fans should not angst over where the team is on the schedule. No matter how good an opponent looks on paper, winning is a matter of 27 one-on-one pitcher vs. batter battles. If your pitcher can win the majority of those head-to-heads and in the right situations; if your defence can make huge plays in the right situations; if your batters can bloop, bleed or blast in the rigtht situations, just play the games that are listed. Heading to the Phillies series, the Jays have played 35 at home and 34 on the road, with a 22-13 record at Rogers Centre and 16-17 away from home. After the Phillies series, the Jays return home for six games against Arizona (3) and the White Sox (3).