Griff’s Blue Jays update and 2025 MLB Power Rankings - 4

First time since ‘90s AL East is MLB’s worst division

May 20, 2025

BLUE JAYS 26-MAN ROSTER BREAKDOWN:

Starting Pitchers: RH Jose Berrios; RH Kevin Gausman; RH Chris Bassitt; RH Bowden Francis; LH Eric Lauer (in-waiting RH Spencer Turnbull; IL RH Max Scherzer; RH Alek Manoah)

Summary: When Jays fall behind early (which happen quite often) MGR John Schneider has demonstrated a tendency to go with his lower leverage relievers and, thus, the games have a tendency of getting away, contributing to a horrible run-differential of minus-27 for a team consistently clawing their way and playing wall-ball with .500, sadly never threatening to put together a significant win streak.

Very quietly there is a real rotation concern, not just for the 5^th starter spot, with Scherzer still weeks away from a rehab assignment, but also for the No. 4 spot manned by Francis, whose propensity for surrendering the long-ball has become alarming, leading MLB with 14 bombs. The fifth starter role has been handled, thus far, by a 5-man combo of Mad Max, LH Easton Lucas, RH Jose Urena, RH Yariel Rodriguez and Lauer. The season totals of stats for the Nos. 4-5 Jays starters through 46 games are not good: 18GS; 4-8 record; 5.79 ERA; 77.2 IP; 50ER; 26HR. The 4-5 Jays starters are averaging 4.1 innings per outing. Not good enough.

Now the Jays are waiting for RH Spencer Turnbull, who had been a free-agent ranked FA No. 50 in the off-season, but unsigned until recently. The 32-year-old native of Alabama has made a total of just 34 starts in the last five seasons, missing the entire ’22 season, following Tommy John surgery, July 20, 2021. Turnbull is expected to join the Jays rotation after a personal spring training buildup. He has made one start at Dunedin and those stats don’t matter. RH Alek Manoah continues to progress in his 11^thmonth following surgery. Meanwhile, RH Adam Kloffenstein (3 starts) and LH Adam Macko (1GS) are pitching again in the minors.

No worries about the Top 3 starters, although there is no Cy Young candidate stepping up. One of the deepest, most durable and veteran Top 3’s in the AL, the trio has remained healthy and held together into its third season.

Bullpen: CL Jeff Hoffman; RH Yimi Garcia; RH Chad Green; LH Brendon Little; RH Yariel Rodriguez; LH Mason Fluharty; RH Braydon Fisher; RH Jose Urena (IL - RH Erik Swanson; RH Nick Sandlin).

Summary: Official stats for all MLB relievers show Blue Jays relievers with nine blown saves in the first 46 games. Sure, we all understand that not all of those lost leads were in the final two innings of games when blown saves are truly legitimate. With starters now expected to only go 5-6 innings and then look to the bullpen, the opportunity for middle-innings blown-saves has become much higher, so there are inflated numbers reflected for most teams, with the majority of MLB staffs checking in at the 7-11 B.S. range. And, yes, many of those failures can be credited to middle relief. But, even understanding this, the Jays have an alarming number of legitimate, late-inning, blown saves, at least five resulting in team losses. Recall Schneider estimated the bullpen may have cost them10 wins in ‘24 when they finished 74-88.

The Jays have struggled to get back above .500 in the last month keyed temporarily by an alarming slump for their leverage relievers Hoffman and Garcia earlier in May, with speculation they were, perhaps, being overused and may have hit a wall. That excuse is total BS, and, no, that usage in this sentence is not short for Blown Save. Then there was speculation that the Orioles and Braves were right in their assessment of the failed physicals for Hoffman, that made those teams back away or try to revise a previously agreed to deal. Hoffman has bounced back and has carried a workload heavier than what the Jays front office might normally approve, at his own insistence.

Hoffman was having an all-star quality season, in his first shot at a 9th-inning role, before back-to-back three-runs in an inning meltdowns cost the Jays two wins. His main setup man, Garcia, also had one game-wasting outing that cost a win. The main lefty duo of Little and Fluharty has had success vs. both righthanded and lefthanded hitters, but the jury is still out for the 162-game marathon. Important righthander Sandlin remains on the IL with a right lat strain and could return by the end of May. RH Swanson remains sidelined. They both pitched rehab assignment at Triple-A.

Catchers: Alejandro Kirk; Tyler Heineman.

Summary: All of a sudden, Kirk has become the most important player on the current Blue Jays roster. He has started 34 of 46 games behind the plate and has thrown out 30-percent of base stealers. He continues to command the edges of the strike-zone defensively and is hitting .333 with two strikes and .300 with runners-in-scoring-position, driving in huge runs as the team treads water. Meanwhile Heineman has done everything expected of a backup catcher.

Infielders: 1B Vlad Guerrero Jr, 2B Ernie Clement; SS Bo Bichette; 3B Addison Barger; UT Michael Stefanic (IL 2B Andres Gimenez)

Summary: There has been a domino effect with Gimenez on the IL, recovering from a strained quad. The guy Clement replaces is a Gold Glove second baseman, but he has filled in seamlessly and, in fact, has provided more offence than did a slumping Gimenez. In addition, with Clement moving from third, it gave Barger room to show what he could do with more regular playing time. The Barger ceiling includes more power than most of his teammates and the best throwing arm among position players guaranteeing there are decisions to be made when Gimenez is activated.

Vlad is heading in the the Frank Thomas direction of having to settle for being pitched around and adding to his walks and on-base total, with the baton then being passed to lesser mortals, the likes of CF Daulton Varsho, DH Anthony Santander and RF George Springer. It helps Vlad’s OPS but until the guys behind him respond with more consistency and run-producing ability, it is working out for opponents as well. Meanwhile, Bichette is providing another glimmer of optimism for the offence but needs to be joined by others to produce runs instead of just runners.

Outfielders: OF-DH Anthony Santander; OF-DH George Springer; OF Myles Straw; OF Jonatan Clase; OF Nathan Lukes; CF Daulton Varsho.

Summary: I can’t remember any Blue Jays team in the last 30 years where they have carried six players whose first position is “outfielder”. Lukes is a legit major-league fourth outfielder getting too many reps as a starter. Clase is not ready to be on a major-league bench. He needs to play every day at AAA-Buffalo. Santander will spend the majority of his game at DH. Springer had a huge first 30 games, but in his last 11 games is 5-for-39-.128 with 7 walks and 5 hits, with a .517 OPS and is 1-for-his-last-19. Varsho is back providing much-needed and somewhat unexpected power with his usual stunning defence. But if I was an opponent, I would run on his still-recovering arm every chance. Straw has value as an MLB veteran okay on the bench who can pinch-run and play late-inning defence when ahead, with the occasional start.

IMMEDIATE FUTURE:

Some advice. Don’t look at the schedule for any soft spots. Just play the games that are listed and don’t whine about the difficulty therein. For instance, the Jays lost to the Angels and Rays, while beating the M’s in Seattle and Red Sox at Fenway. At some point, Francis needs to step up and make his adjustments to what hitters have done to him, with the back end of the rotation then, also, finding its own solution, whether it’s calling up Turnbull, staying with Lauer or a combination of openers and bullpen parts. Heading to the Padres series completing the homestand, the Jays have played 25 at home and 21 on the road, with a disappointing 13-12 record at Rogers Centre.

2025 Division Combined Record (thru May 18)

1-AL Central +9 … 2-NL East +7

3-AL West +3 … NL West +2

5-NL Central -6 … 6-AL East -15

Griff’s 2025 Power Rankings (Last ’25 Ranking in parentheses)

1-Dodgers (1) … Nice to see LH Clayton Kershaw pitch again on the weekend, but understand that the future Hall-of-Famer is on a personal farewell tour while his team is on a mission of title-defence … MGR: Dave Roberts … Most Important Players: DH Shohei Ohtani; RH Yosh Yamamoto … Highest Paid: Ohtani $70.0M.

2-Tigers (5) … Boast 6 starters under 30-years-old and a deep bullpen with no real closer. MGR A.J. Hinch utilizes entire roster. Tigers are force to be reckoned with. CF Javy Diaz the leading comeback player-of-the-year, batting 9^th provides great D at a new position … MGR: Hinch … Most Important Players: OF Riley Greene; LH Tarik Skubal … Highest Paid: Baez/Jack Flaherty $25.0M

3-Phillies (9) … With CL Jose Alvarado suspended 80-games, the bullpen situation is back to square one with CL Jordan Romano showing signs of being up to the task this time around. The rotation is solid to 4-deep and DH Kyle Schwarber is the best at his role in baseball … MGR: Rob Thomson … Most Important Players: DH Schwarber; RH Zack Wheeler … Highest Paid: RH Wheeler $42.0M

4-Yankees (8) … LHP Max Fried is the real deal replacing Cy guy Gerrit Cole and RF Aaron Judge is enhancing his role as the biggest and best offensive force in baseball. However, given those two studs, their record should be better … MGR: Aaron Boone … Most Important Players: OF Judge; LH Fried … Highest Paid: Judge $40.0M

5-Mets (3) … Are just 11-11 since April 28 and rely on the holy trinity of position players 1B Pete Alonso, SS Francisco Lindor and RF Juan Soto. The rotation is the shakiest part of this talented team, but RH Kodai Senga has been solid in his return … MGR: Carlos Mendoza … Most Important Players: 1B Alonso; CL Edwin Diaz … Highest Paid: OF Soto $61.9M.

6-Mariners (4) … This team clearly built around a rotation that when healthy is the nastiest in MLB. M’s have begun to enhance great pitching with scoring more runs. Getting expected production from C Cal Raleigh and a pleasant surprise from late-signing DH Jorge Polanco … MGR: Dan Wilson … Most Important Players: C Raleigh; CL Andres Munoz … Highest Paid: RH Luis Castillo $24.2M

7-Padres (2) … RF Fernando Tatis Jr is the offensive force that Vlad Guerrero Jr needs to be for Jays to compete. After a 15-4 start, the Padres are 12-14 since April 16 and are 4-7 in last 11, with the 4 Ws vs. Angels and Rockies. The bullpen dominates led by CL Robert Suarez and RH Jason Adam … MGR: Mike Shildt … Most Important Players: OF Tatis Jr; RH Michael King … Highest Paid: SS Xander Bogaerts $25.5M

8-Cubs (7) … CF Pete Crow-Armstrong has gone from being famous as son of Ashley Crow, the mom in the movie Little Big League, to now being a favourite for NL Gold Glove and serious MVP candidate. RF Kyle Tucker headed for a giant payday … MGR: Craig Counsell … Most Important Players: RF Tucker; LH Matthew Boyd … Highest Paid: SS Dansby Swanson $28.0M.

9-Giants (6) … Who would have guessed 33-year-old DH Wilmer Flores would be leading MLB with 42 RBIs. LH Robbie Ray is 6-0, while RH Justin Verlander, averaging over 5-innings in 10 GS is still looking for his first Giants win … MGR: Bob Melvin … Most Important Players: 3B Matt Chapman; RH Logan Webb … Highest Paid: 3B Chapman $25.2M

10-Twins (21) … As we were saying before being so rudely interrupted by a head-scratching bad start, the Twins are good. SS Carlos Correa and CF Byron Buxton both on 7-day IL after collision that concussed both men. Twins were 13-20 after losing at Fenway on May 2, then reeled off 13 wins in a row … MGR: Rocco Baldelli … Most Important Players: CF Buxton; RH Pablo Lopez … Highest Paid: SS Correa $37.3M.

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Griff’s The Pitch

Griff’s Blue Jays update and 2025 MLB Power Rankings - 4

First time since ‘90s AL East is MLB’s worst division

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