Griff’s Blue Jays update after 59 Games

Jays fans need to take a step back to appreciate their team

BLUE JAYS 26-MAN ROSTER BREAKDOWN:

Latest Update: Sometimes, the simplest, most ridiculed, cliches can carry the most truth in explaining a situation that seems complicated to many people, upon first glance. Thus it is we feel free to shoehorn the Jays into an oft-scoffed at axiom, helping to explain what has become a frustrated Blue Jays fanbase, over the up-and-down month of May. The expression with which we are all familiar but have never really thought about is “You can’t see the forest for the trees”.

Breaking the expression down to its roots, it’s clear, regarding the forest analogy, that it is only from a distance, maybe looking from the window seat of an overhead plane, that you can truly understand the beauty of what you have been observing, but not appreciating, up close. Its colours, its size, its majesty and symmetry. On the other hand, if you are right there, up close, perhaps about to enter said forest on a hike, all you see are the trees immediately in front of you, while not understanding the entirety, the beauty of the forest, as meant by Mother Nature.

Bring that to baseball. Jays fans see a team that’s 20^th in runs scored through 59 games. A team that pummeled the suddenly hapless A’s pitching staff to forge a current 5-game win streak, the longest active streak in baseball. They remain pessimistic and somewhat dismissive.

Fans see a team that battled back to a game above .500, then went on a 6-game road trip to Tampa and Texas, going 2-4 and scoring just six runs in the entire trip, fortunate to emerge with two wins. Fans see the Jays with the well-documented first and second inning scoring woes that have plagued the group, forcing them on many days and nights, to battle from behind. They point to a team three games over .500, despite a minus-5 run differential, a stat that often dictates front-office strategy at the trade deadline. That does not bode well. They wring their hands and grit their teeth. This is the up-close forestry group that only sees the trees.

Meanwhile, from a distance, you hear the commentary from a U.S. national media like MLB Network that does not have to watch all this Jays roller-coaster play up close and frustrating. They are the ones, referred to in the cliché, that view the forest from a distance and see the entirety, its beauty and, yes, its limitations.

Outsiders see the .254 team batting average that ranks 7^th in baseball. They see the emergence of Addison Barger, the rebirth of Bo Bichette as an offensive leader out of the leadoff spot, the value of Ernie Clement. They can observe on a loop the highlight defensive plays that dot the landscape of the Jays’ season. They can point to the patience of Vlad Guerrero Jr. as he waits for offensive support behind him in the order so that he will see more hittable pitches to destroy. Vlad has eight homers in 59 games, on pace for a 22-homer season, but it should be noted that on this date in 2024, he hit only his seventh and finished the year with 30.

At the end of any season, the difference is often how you did in the games you were “supposed” to win. Games like the Athletics 4-game series. Critics are correct when they say the Jays need to show more against the good teams. That’s one area of fan concern that is valid. Consider that against teams currently under .500, the Jays through June 2, are 20-9. Facing teams that are currently over .500, Toronto is 11-19. The next 12 games on the schedule are against teams above the break-even mark. They must emerge from that meat-grinder better than they have showed.

Starting Pitchers: RH Kevin Gausman; RH Jose Berrios; RH Chris Bassitt; RH Bowden Francis; No. 5 is Bullpen Days led by LH Eric Lauer (in-waiting RH Spencer Turnbull; IL RH Max Scherzer and RH Alek Manoah)

Summary: Gausman is re-emerging as the No. 1 of this group and a good sign of that was when, even without his best stuff, the Jays were able to win. But more often, he has stepped up with a fastball that he can spot at the top and the bottom of the strike zone, meaning teams cannot lay off his splitter when they see a pitch heading to the bottom of the zone. When Berrios can find the inside corner of the strike zone with a 2-seamer that starts off the plate inside vs. lefty hitters, he can be devastating. He lost that ability for a start, but has it back and, still, has never missed a start in seven years. Bassitt is a solid, manic, entertaining No. 3 starter, who needs his run support and needs Kirk behind the plate. Very quietly there is a real concern, not just for the 5^th starter, with Scherzer still weeks away from even a rehab assignment, but also for the No. 4 spot manned by Francis, whose propensity for surrendering the longball has been alarming. The fifth starter role has been filled by the 5-man combo of Mad Max, LH Easton Lucas, RH Jose Urena, RH Yariel Rodriguez, RH Paxton Schultz, RH Braydon Fisher and Lauer. That’s 11 starters/openers in 59 games. Who’s got next? The Jays are waiting for RH Spencer Turnbull, to finish up his personal spring training. The former Tigers starter had been an off-season free-agent ranked FA No. 50, but unsigned. The 32-year-old has made a total of just 34 starts in the last five seasons, missing the entire ’22 season, following Tommy John surgery. He has made four starts at Dunedin and Buffalo and the stats don’t matter. RH Manoah continues to progress in his 11^th month post-surgery.

Bullpen: CL Jeff Hoffman; RH Erik Swanson; RH Chad Green; LH Brendon Little; RH Yariel Rodriguez; LH Mason Fluharty; RH Braydon Fisher; RH Braxton Schultz (IL - RH Nick Sandlin; Yimi Garcia).

Summary: Don’t look at the ERA of CL Hoffman because it will have you scratching your head. Fact is, he has allowed 8 earned runs in three of his appearances which will skew that ERA number all year and likely cost him any all-star consideration. But Hoffman has been more than solid, stepping up and willing to go 4+ outs for a save. The Jays miss Garcia as that other guy who can close when Hoffman has worked two straight or three out of four. But, as it has unfolded, RH Y-Rod has embraced the higher leverage role he has been handed and is becoming more important by the minute. This allows Swanson,who just is back from the IL, to feel his way back to leverage. As for the southpaw relievers, both Little and Fluharty have been effective vs. both right and lefthanded hitters, although there are games where the No. 1, Little, struggles to find the zone and needs aggressive hitters swinging at balls outside the zone. The mix-and-match righthanders up from Buffalo in various combinations have had their moments, but the Jays need Sandlin (right lat strain) to return ASAP. The Jays have used 18 relievers, four of whom are no longer even with the organization.

Catchers: Alejandro Kirk; Ali Sanchez; (IL Tyler Heineman).

Summary: Kirk has become the most important player on the Blue Jays. If he was to miss significant time, it would be huge. He has started 44 of 59 games behind the plate which is 121 over a full season. He continues to own the edges of the strike-zone defensively, driving in some huge runs. His bat-to-ball skills have returned, but he is a definite liability when he is the lead runner. Meanwhile Heineman and Sanchez have done everything expected of backup catchers.

Infielders: 1B Vlad Guerrero Jr, 2B Ernie Clement; SS Bo Bichette; 3B Addison Barger; UT Michael Stefanic; UT Davis Schneider; (IL 2B Andres Gimenez)

Summary: It’s interesting how fans can twist what should be a positive into a negative. The imminent return of platinum-glove 2B Gimenez should be celebrated, but the angst comes in because Barger has emerged as an offensive force and needs a place to play, while Clement is the ultimate “utility player” starting games at all four infield positions and excelling (except at first base).

Clement has filled in seamlessly at second and has provided more offence than did a slumping Gimenez. In addition, with Clement moving from third, it gave Barger room to show what he could do with more regular playing time. The Barger ceiling includes more power than most of his teammates and the best throwing arm among position players. So, what to do with Gimenez back. The answer seems simple, with OFs Anthony Santander and Daulton Varsho on the injured list, the obvious answer is Clement returning to third-base, with Barger going to RF. The manager has already suggested a platoon in CF with Nathan Lukes and Myles Straw. Springer can rotate between LF and DH and then when the two injured outfielders return, further decisions can be made. But the truth is that in baseball things have a way of taking care of themselves. Meanwhile, on the infield, Bichette since his important pinch-hit homer in Texas, is providing optimism for the team’s offence but needs to be joined by others at the top to produce runs instead of just baserunners.

Outfielders: OF-DH George Springer; OF Myles Straw; OF Jonatan Clase; OF Nathan Lukes; OF Alan Roden (IL OF-DH Anthony Santander; CF Daulton Varsho).

Summary: Lukes is a legit major-league fourth outfielder getting too many reps as a starter. Clase is not ready to be a starter and was brought up ahead of schedule, but he has enough tools to be a fifth outfielder. Springer after a huge first 30 games, had a worrisome slump in May, but rebounded against bad A’s pitching. His diminishing skills due to wear and tear are still a concern. Oh, and thank you Roki Sasaki for bringing Straw to the Jays. Recall, Straw was the throw-in salary dump by Cleveland as the Jays crossed their fingers and hoped the International Bonus Money they obtained from the Guardians was enough to lure the Japanese free-agent to Canada. He’s not exactly stirring the drink, but this Straw is key.

IMMEDIATE FUTURE:

Just play the games that are listed and don’t whine about the difficulty therein. Heading to the Phillies series, the Jays have played 32 at home and 27 on the road, with a 20-12 record at Rogers Centre and a disappointing 11-16 away from home. After the Phillies series, the Jays head out on an important 9-gamer road trip to Minneapolis, St. Louis and Philadelphia.

PLEASE NOTE: With the Niagara Ironbacks season opener in Jamestown (NY) on Thursday and the home opener in St. Catharines on Saturday, the Exit Philosophy podcast will return with a new episode next week. The Jamestown ballpark is where Jays broadcaster Joe Siddall tells me he played his first pro game as an Expos farmhand. I am going to make sure I get a photo of my opening day catcher behind the dish to send to Joe.