GRIFF’S 2024 WORLD SERIES PREVIEW

Down to two best regular season teams

1-New York Yankees (95-67; 7-2) vs. 1-Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64; 7-4)

OFFICIAL SCHEDULE

G1 Oct. 25 8:08 p.m. @ Dodger Stadium 

RH Gerrit Cole vs. RH Jack Flaherty

G2 Oct. 26 8:08 p.m. @ Dodger Stadium

LH Carlos Rodon vs. RH Yosh Yamamoto

OFF DAY

G3 Oct. 28 8:08 p.m. @ Yankee Stadium

RH Walker Buehler vs. RH Clarke Schmidt

G4 Oct. 29 8:08 p.m. @ Yankee Stadium

RH Ben Casparius vs. RH Luis Gil

G5 Oct. 30 8:08 p.m. @ Yankee Stadium (if Necessary)

RH Jack Flaherty vs. Gerrit Cole

OFF DAY

G6 Nov. 1 8:08 p.m. @ Dodger Stadium (if Necessary)

G7 Nov. 2 8:08 p.m. @ Dodger Stadium (if Necessary)

2024 POST-SEASON SUMMARY THROUGH 3 ROUNDS:

(Griff’s Pre-Series Picks WC 3-1; DS 3-1; CS 0-2)

The two top seeds and two of MLB’s Top 3 payrolls advanced to the World Series. No Cinderella story here. Over the 10 already-contested Wildcard, Division and Championship Series in 2024, Griff’s picks correctly predicted 6 of 10 series, missing on the Royals vs. the O’s (ALWC) and the Padres vs. the Dodgers (NLDS), then losing both League Championship Series. LCS excuses? Plenty of them. Lost the Dodgers pick out of intense dislike for the franchise and was wrong on the Yankee pick because of favouring the four Canadians on the Guardians. Teams with home-field advantage and the higher seeds are 6-4. NOTE: All four games at Dodger Stadium will be at 5:08 PDT, contending with shadows and twilight, helping the pitchers and the under.

WORLD SERIES ODDS AND ENDS:

*Since the Dodgers and Yankees last met in the WS (1981), teams that enters the Fall Classic with the higher regular-season win total of the two combatants are 20-21 with one tie, that being 2013, when the Red Sox and Cardinals each posted 97Ws. Thus, having had a better regular season factors little in determining a World Series winner.

*The two home run champions and presumptive MVPs of their respective leagues, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are meeting in the World Series. This is the first World Series featuring AL and NL home run champions since Duke Snider (Dodgers) and Mickey Mantle (Yankees). Also the first World Series featuring a 50-homer performer on each side. (thanks Sarah Langs).

*The Dodgers have nine pitchers now on IL, earning $50.9-million. They have used 17 different starters. The busiest starting pitcher on Dodgers roster? Yosh Yamamoto 18GS, 90.0 IP. 

*Ultimate trivia, this is the first World Series in 21 years played in facilities with “Stadium” in their name. The 2003 series was hosted by Yankee Stadium and Pro Player Stadium (Marlins).  

STARTERS DON’T MATTER:

Adding up the 11 total games of the ’24 ALCS and NLCS, provides an interesting perspective on starting pitching. The reason only Championship Series are included is because at this time of every post-season the cadence of the playoffs has returned to a normal schedule -- Games 1-2, then off-day, Games 3-4-5, then off-day, followed, if necessary, by Games 6-7. Consider that this year the 22 starting pitchers among Dodgers, Mets, Yankees and Guardians, logged a combined total of 81 innings, averaging just 3-2/3 innings per outing. That leaves 5-1/3 innings per game to bullpens, plus extra innings. The starters may be able to go deeper due to the late afternoon shadows in L.A., but the two bullpens is where the World Series will be won.      

YANKEES & DODGERS WORLD SERIES APPEARANCES SINCE 2000:

In the 24 World Series contested since 2000, the Yankees (2-2) and Dodgers (1-2) are a combined 3-4. They have not contested a WS vs. one another in the 21^st Century. The Yankees, among their four Fall Classic appearances since ‘00, lost to the D’backs in ’01 and to the Marlins in ’03, while defeating the Mets in ’00 and the Phillies in ‘09. The Dodgers lost to the cheating Astros in 2017 and the Red Sox in 2018, while beating the Rays in the pandemic-shortened ‘20 season. This is the 12^th World Series meeting for Yankees and Dodgers franchises, with the Yankees dominating 8-3. This is the fifth WS meeting since the Dodgers moved to Los Angeles, with the teams tied 2-2. The Yankees won in 1977-78. Dodgers won in 1963 and 1981.     

Dodgers/Yankees ‘24 Season Series: The Dodgers were 2-1 vs. the Yankees in ’24 with the series played in the Bronx, June 7-9. Dodgers won the first game 2-1 with seven shutout innings from Yosh Yamamoto. The teams went to the 11^th in a 0-0 game, before Teoscar Hernandez doubled home a pair. Aaron Judge responded for the Yankees with an RBI single in the bottom of the 11^th. In Game 2, the Dodgers won 11-3, with four in the 8^th and three in the 9^th. Teoscar led the way on Saturday with two homers and six RBIs, including a grand slam in the 8^th. The Bombers finally won Sunday’s series finale, on homers by Judge and centre fielder Trent Grisham.

How Yankees can win: Somehow this Yankees team does not seem as intimidating as past playoff editions. But they are damn good. That being said, any lineup that features CF Aaron Judge, RF Juan Soto and a resurgent DH Giancarlo Stanton is not to be trifled with. Stanton is emerging as the new Mr. October, while Soto frustrates and intimidates pitchers with his batter’s box swagger and keen pitch recognition. However, if the mediocre playoff-Judge becomes the MVP regular-season-Judge, it’s over. They will win this series by outscoring the Dodgers over the first six innings of games. That is a real possibility because the Yankees rotation is deeper and healthier. If the Yankees are trailing going into the seventh inning, advantage moves to the Dodgers. It’s the first-time CL Luke Weaver has been handed the ninth inning role, that due to the struggles of RH Clay Holmes who has settled nicely into his new, setup role. If Weaver can handle 4-5 games and not stumble (that’s a big ask) and if Tommy Kahnle can continue to effectively throw nothing but changeups, they can win. Blue Jays Connections: RHP Marcus Stroman, LHP Tim Mayza, IF Jon Berti, Mark Leiter Jr.

How Dodgers can win: The Los Angeles bullpen, which we already determined is the most important aspect of this matchup, is clearly deeper than the Yankees, with multiple late-inning leverage options, with Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech and even Evan Phillips. Oh yeah, and by the way, Daniel Hudson was on the mound for the final out of the 2019 Nationals World Series clincher. Pitching injuries cloud the Dodgers’ rotation, which might, over seven games, force a couple of bullpen days, a ridiculous thought for old-school traditionalists when imagining World Series of the past. The Dodgers have Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani doing their thing, with Max Muncy stepping up in the Top 3 OPS. A hobbled 1B Freddie Freeman has the potential for a Kirk Gibson moment. Teoscar Hernandez leads a relentless, quick strike supporting cast making this group impossible to pitch against. At mid-season, the Dodgers reached down into deep pockets for help acquire help down the stretch. They hit the mother lode, coming up with Game 1 starter Jack Flaherty (Tigers), UT Tommy Edman (Cards), CF Kevin Kiermaier (Jays), and Kopech (White Sox). The Yankees will be advantaged in a longer series because it allows room for L.A. MGR Dave Roberts, encouraged by his front-office analytics nerds, to overmanage his bullpen based on the excess of information he receives prior to every game. Blue Jays Connections: Teoscar Hernandez, Kevin Kiermaier, Anthony Banda, Daniel Hudson.

World Series Advantages:

Lineup: Dodgers … for its relentless depth

Rotation: Yankees … for its healthy available innings

Bullpen: Dodgers … ability to adjust leverage roles 7G in 9 days

Closer: Dodgers … better stuff and more options

Defence: Even … with neither team being great

Baserunning: Dodgers … Yanks run with oven mitts and Stevie Wonder glasses

Bench: Even … both benches as decisive footnotes

Manager: Yankees … blame will readily be shifted to losing skipper

Griff’s Predicted Winner: Dodgers in six