Griff’s 2023 Championship Series Previews

The Final Four pays tribute to managerial experience

OVERVIEW: This is baseball’s version of the Final Four, unlike any previous. Do the rules of seeding, as the tournament goes on, really need to be changed? The ALCS features two 90-win teams – the Astros and Rangers, while the NLCS features the Phils with 90 wins and Arizona with just 84W. Never has there been an MLB Final Four, in which no team had more than 90 regular season wins. Of course, never has the Championship round previously included three wildcards. With the Astros and Rangers both provided by the AL West Division, the ALCS becomes the first Championship Series with two teams from the same division since the 2011 NLCS with the Cardinals over the Brewers. The last time it happened in the AL was 2004 with the Red Sox beating the Yankees. This pair of ‘23 championship series marks a golden age of senior enlightenment, with the four skippers, Dusty Baker, 74, Bruce Bochy, 68, Rob Thomson, 60, and Torey Lovullo, 58, averaging 65-years-of-age. Is there an advantage in experience? In addition to understanding WAR, and what is it good for, they also know that in the post-season, three runs down, with the tying run stepping into the box, you don’t end an inning at the plate challenging a Gold Glove shortstop as a loose ball skitters across the infield dirt.

  

5-Texas Rangers (90-72; 5-0) vs. 2-Houston Astros (90-72; 3-1)

Gs 1-2 at Minute Maid Park

Sunday (8:15 p.m.) –LH Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20) vs. RH Justin Verlander (7-3, 3.31)

Monday (4:37 p.m.) - RH Nate Eovaldi (12-5, 3.63) vs. LH Framber Valdez (12-11, 3.45)

Gs 3-4-*5 at Globe Life Field

Wednesday (8:03 p.m.) - RH Cristian Javier (10-5, 4.56) vs. RH Max Scherzer (4-2, 3.20)

Thursday (8:03 p.m.) – Jose Urquidy (3-3, 5.29) vs. Dane Dunning (12-7, 3.70)

*Friday (5:07 p.m.) -- RH Justin Verlander (7-3, 3.31) vs. LH Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20)

Gs *6-*7 at Minute Maid Park

*Sunday (8:03 p.m.) – TBA vs. TBA

*Monday (8:03 p.m.) -- TBA vs. TBA

Rangers: The Rangers stumbled at the end of the season when in seeming control of the AL West and a first-round bye, losing in Seattle and thus the division tiebreaker to Houston on the final weekend. MGR Bruce Bochy’s crew regrouped to consecutively sweep the two teams with the AL’s best records, the Rays and then the O’s. The Rangers show what you need to happen to go deep into October. A couple of young, emerging position players from the system that, perhaps, were earlier refining their unpolished skills during the marathon, that step up to provide impetus for a four-series sprint to the World Series. For Texas it has been 3B Josh Jung and LF Evan Carter. Bochy’s rotation suffered severe setbacks with injuries to stars Jacob deGrom, Nate Eovaldi and Max Scherzer, but Scherzer, hurt at Rogers Centre in September, is on the slate for Game 3 at home. Veterans Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery have stepped up. RH Jose Leclerc leads a questionable group of relievers that during the season were charged with 33 blown saves while earning just 30 saves. If LH Aroldis Chapman is throwing strikes, then he can be a factor. The Rangers have remained a team of inexplicable streaks, but are on a 5-0 post-season run and SS Corey Seager and 2B Marcus Semien are as consistent and potent a 1-2 punch as you will see.

Astros: The Astros may have lucked into the division crown, beating the Diamondbacks on the final Sunday, as AZ was still celebrating its wildcard berth. Nothing about this Astros team has been as good as it was a year ago, especially the starting pitching. RH Cristian Javier failed to take the next step in his career, while a couple of injuries left two men healthy, LH Framber Valdez and returning-at-the-deadline, ace RH Justin Verlander to front the starting group. They need RH Jose Urquidy simply to keep them competitive for five innings, but this rotation is gettable. The bullpen will once again be key for the Astros, with the top six relievers making between 55-72 appearances led by CL Ryan Pressley who steps up every post-season. The lineup is built around DH Yordan Alvarez, combined with a career year from RF Kyle Tucker and a huge in-season comeback from RBI-machine 1B Jose Abreu. They forever have 2B Jose Altuve, but don’t try and rip his jersey off.   

The Astros are in their eighth straight post-season and in the previous seven have reached the World Series four times. The stain of the 2017 cheating scandal will never be washed away, but this is just a solid team and deep organization, run by GM Dana Brown, a former Jays executive.

Winner: Rangers  

 

6-Arizona Diamondbacks (84-77; 5-0) vs. 4-Philadelphia Phillies (90-72; 5-1)

Gs 1-2 at Citizens Bank Park

Monday (8:07 p.m.) – RH Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47) vs. RH Zach Wheeler (13-6, 3.61)

Tuesday (8:07 p.m.) – RH Merrill Kelly (12-8, 3.29) vs. RH Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.46)

Gs 3-4-*5 at Chase Field

Thursday (5:07 p.m.) – LH Ranger Suarez (4-6, 4.18) vs. RH Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72)

Friday (8:07 p.m.) –RH Taijuan Walker (15-6, 4.38) vs. RH Ryne Nelson (8-8, 5.31)

*Saturday (8:07 p.m.) – RH Zach Wheeler (13-6, 3.61) vs. RH Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47)

Gs *6-*7 at Citizens Bank Park

*Monday (5:07 p.m.) – TBA vs. TBA

*Tuesday (8:07 p.m.) – TBA vs. TBA

Diamondbacks: The Snakes road to the Final Four led them through the Central winning Brewers and the West Division champion Dodgers. Arizona posted just 84 season wins, but dropped their last four games of the season, including three to Houston who were fighting for their division, after they had just clinched a wildcard spot at home and had celebrated at a raucous outfield pool party, so the 84 win total is slightly misleading. By the way, is chlorine a performance-depressing substance? Nice to see former Jays coach, MGR Torey Lovullo back in the playoffs.

The Trade! The first impression would be that the off-season deal between the Jays and Diamondbacks – LF Lourdes Gurriel and C Gabby Moreno for OF Daulton Varsho -- was lopsided, but Jays CEO Mark Shapiro suggests proper assessment can’t be made for 4-5 years. Think Steve Pearson for Santiago Espinal and the Red Sox acquiring a future World Series MVP, while Espinal is still contributing. Back to the present, Moreno already has three big October home runs, making 93 regular-season starts behind the plate, throwing out 39% of base stealers. The bullpen is led by former M’s closer Paul Sewald but is not scary. The rotation has been keyed all season by RH’s Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Compare that to their World Series year in 2001, when the rotation was fronted by LH Randy Johnson and RH Curt Schilling.

Phillies: As the NL’s top wildcard, the Phils eliminated the pesky Marlins who squeezed into the playoffs, but didn’t have enough firepower to match the brotherly love bombers. Following that, the Phils beat the No. 1 overall seed, the Braves and their 104 wins, in four games. The Phillies also eliminated the Braves in the same round a year ago, to advance to the World Series vs. the Astros. Phils’ president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski launched his successful career as GM in Montreal with the Expos. Phils MGR Rob Thomson is the first and only Canadian to lead a team to the World Series. This is a role model team for anyone looking to build a roster designed for the sprint that is the post-season rather than the marathon that is the regular season. This is a Phillies bunch in the lineup that can create runs with one hellacious swing, an offence accompanied by three solid starters and a hard-throwing, interchangeable bullpen. The back end of the pen includes CL Craig Kimbrel, LH Jose Alvarado and former Jays’ prospect RH Jeff Hoffman. RF Nick Castellanos has stepped up to join 1B Bryce (AttaBoy) Harper, supported by the dangerous DH Kyle Schwarber and resurgent SS Trea Turner.  

Winner: Phillies