Comparing playoff ready rotations of 8 AL contenders down the stretch

Reliability, durability and talent: What’s the payroll cost of eight playoff rotations

The stretch drive to the post-season is well underway and eight AL teams still believe they could be dancing, late into October. Within that contending octet are two tiers of starters -- rotations built for short-series sprints and those that were constructed for the 162-game marathon.   

When the playoffs do arrive, still far down the road in October, that will become the time to favour sprint teams, those boasting 2 or 3 top of the rotation studs who can take advantage of built-in off-days and propel their team to victory in any 3-to-7-game series.

On the other hand, are the teams populated by marathon men, deep and reliable rotations counted upon to remain healthy through the 162-game grind, taking the ball when it is handed to them, throwing close to 100 pitches, keeping teams competitive for 30-34 starts.  

Through Thursday, there were eight American League teams above .500 that must still be considered contenders for one of six post-season berths. Sure, there could still be a surprise from a sub-.500 AL team that gets hot and makes a run, teams like the Guardians or, dare we say, the Yankees. But at this point, let’s simply compare the current five-or-six-man starting group from eight obvious contenders, with 30-something games remaining.

Let’s list the 5-6 starters for each team, as of the weekend, and then include, with that, three informative numbers within parentheses –that individual’s number of starts (through Friday), age and 2023 salary (US). The Blue Jays are paying the most combined for their five-man starting rotation, at $84-million. (Name: Starts-Age-’23 Salary)

LEADERS IN AL EAST

Orioles (6): RH Kyle Gibson (27GS-35-$10M); RH Jack Flaherty (23GS-27-$5.4M); LH Cole Irvin (11GS-29-$0.74M); RH Dean Kremer (26GS-27-$0.73M); RH Kyle Bradish (23GS-26-$0.73M); RH Grayson Rodriguez (17GS-23-$0.73M) … Rotation Payroll $18.32M.

The O’s rotation seems to exist simply to carry the team through six innings to the bullpen … which has been a lockdown group with a lead in late innings. The only veteran, Gibson, has just one career playoff appearance and that was a failure. Rodriguez and Kremer have each, already, exceeded career highs in innings pitched as a pro, while Bradish will pass his personal high in two or three starts. Will the entire O’s staff be on fumes by October?  

CO-LEADERS IN AL WEST

Rangers (5): RH Max Scherzer (23GS-39-$43.3M); RH Jon Gray (23GS-31-$15M); LH Andrew Heaney (25GS-32-$12M); LH Jordan Montgomery (25GS-30-$10M); RH Dane Dunning (20GS-28-$0.74M) … Rotation Payroll $81.04M.

When they lost Jacob deGrom at the start of the season, they lost their “sprinter” designation and morphed into marathon men, with quality starters to carry them through 162. But with the acquisition of Scherzer from the Mets, they became primed for the sprint, as well. Ultimate hybrids. Four of the top five starters are 30-plus years of age. The pared down rotation is led by Scherzer, with Heaney, Gray and Dunning. This group is to be feared.

Mariners (5): RH Luis Castillo (26GS-30-$10M); RH Logan Gilbert (25GS-26-$0.77M); RH George Kirby (25GS-25-$0.76M); RH Bryce Miller (19GS-25-$0.72M); RH Bryan Woo (12GS-23-$0.72M) … Rotation Payroll $12.96M.

This group may be the ultimate “sprint” rotation, with Castillo, Gilbert and Kirby in the first three games of any series. All are aged between 25-30. There is no doubt that the recent stretch for Julio Rodriguez has been the difference, propelling the M’s to the verge of the post-season. J-Rod into Thursday was hitting .453 in his last 16 games, with a 1.233 OPS. Without the Rodriguez surge, the M’s are the Jays. Vlad or Bo needs to be that J-Rod guy.

LEADERS IN AL CENTRAL

Twins (6): RH Sonny Gray (26GS-33-$12M); RH Pablo Lopez (26GS-27-$5.45M); RH Kenta Maeda (15GS-35-$3M); RH Joe Ryan (22GS-27-$0.73M); RH Bailey Ober (21GS-28-$0.72M); LH Dallas Keuchel (3GS-35-$0.72M) … Rotation Payroll $22.72M.

The Twins sit atop the uber-weak Central, with not much pressure on the horizon. They will likely be hosting a wild-card team that owns a better record, but it would behoove a team not to celebrate if they land the Twins in a three-game wild-card. Lopez is hitting his stride and Gray has had success in past playoffs with the A’s and Yankees. Ober and Ryan need to be able to go deeper into starts, but often in October, that doesn’t matter.

FIRST WILDCARD

Rays (6): RH Zach Eflin (25GS-29-$11M); RH Tyler Glasnow (14GS-30-$5.35M); RH Aaron Civale (17GS-28-$2.6M); Shawn Armstrong (4GS-32-$1.2M); RH Taj Bradley (16GS-22-$0.72M); RH Zack Littell (8GS-27-$0.72M) … Rotation Payroll $21.59M.

The Rays for the first time in the past 15 years, are relying on offence to carry them to the playoffs. Injuries to the pre-season, projected rotation, led by the recent loss of LH Shane McLanahan, have made the acquisitions of Eflin and Civale seem quite prescient. If Glasnow can hit his stride, again, it gives them a Top 3. The Rays still have a chance, but a list of injuries to the staff, starter and relief, plus payroll restrictions make them paper-thin.

SECOND WILDCARD

Astros (6): RH Justin Verlander (20GS-40-$43.3M); LH Framber Valdez (25GS-29-$6.8M); RH Jose Urquidy (9GS-28-$3.03M); RH Cristian Javier (24GS-26-$3M); RH Hunter Brown (23GS-24-$0.73M); RH J.P. France (18GS-28-$0.72M) … Rotation Payroll $57.52M.

The trade to re-acquire Verlander from the Mets is the Astros equivalent of the Rangers finding their top gun, Max Scherzer, at mid-season. Not coincidentally, both aces arrived courtesy of the Mets. Make no mistake, this is not the same Astros’ pitching staff as in the World Series, but the six-man rotation does boast a combined 77 post-season games. Verlander and Valdez are a great lead combo, but Javier and Urquidy have driven off a cliff.    

THIRD WILDCARD

Loser of Seattle/Texas battle for the AL West.

FOURTH WILDCARD

Blue Jays (5): RH Kevin Gausman (25GS-32-$21M); LH Hyun Jin Ryu (4GS-36-$20M); RH Chris Bassitt (27GS-34-$18M); RH Jose Berrios (26GS-29-$15M); LH Yusei Kikuchi (25GS-32-$10M … Rotation Payroll $84M.

This group may be ultimate AL marathon men, with five durable, talented hurlers between 29 and 36-years-old that take the ball every five days and offer 80-110 pitches. This rotation has given the Jays offence a chance to win almost every night, but in a 3, 5 or seven game series, nothing is clear cut. There will be decisions on personnel and the 4-man order. Either Ryu would be the odd-man out or Bassitt could become a long reliever.    

FIFTH WILDCARD

Red Sox (5): LH Chris Sale (14GS-34-$27.5M); LH James Paxton (17GS-34-$4M); RH Tanner Houck (14GS-27-$0.74M); RH Brayan Bello (22GS-24-$0.73M); RH Kutter Crawford (17GS-27-$0.73M … Rotation Payroll $33.7M.

Only Bello has made as many as 20 starts for the Red Sox this year, due to injury and attrition. Sale would have to remain healthy and effective for the next two months in order for the Sox to contend. This is already the most starts (14) the talented lefthander has made in any of last four seasons, accumulating just 121.1 innings since 2019. The Canadian, Paxton, in that same four-year period has reached just 112.0 innings. Tough for the Sox.