Blue Jays will miss Jeff Hoffman in chase for wildcard

Competitive Jays lacks depth in bullpen's Circle of Trust

As dust settles on the flurry of Blue Jays trade deadline moves, GM Ross Atkins and friends have likely arrived at a conclusion that the one player they are missing the most is setup man Jeff Hoffman, dispatched to the Twins for three young prospects.

Yes, we understand that Hoffman was having a disappointing 2026 season, losing the bullpen closer’s role in May to Louis Varland, with lingering memories of his World Series Game 7 failure still fresh in the minds of Blue Jays fans, many of whom have long, unforgiving memories.

But look where the Jays are right now, as they have regrouped from a rock-bottom 10-games-under-.500, behind some fresh faces to make what will likely be a futile run at the third wildcard spot. But it’s fun to go to the ballpark again.

Sure there’s hope. But the reason that dancing in October remains unlikely for the Jays is that with 39 games left they will need to put together at least two winning streaks, or at least one stretch of 20 games at 15-5 or better.

Let’s say 84 wins is the bare minimum for that third wild-card. The Jays heading into the Yankees, need to go 24-14 with six other teams all within 3.5 games of that final spot. And to accomplish that, the Jays need a circle of trust in the bullpen that embraces more than just four pitchers. The other four seem to be either lefty specialists or roll of the dice righthanders. And the Jays seem to be in a close game in later innings, every day right now.

The Fab Four of relievers in the minds of MGR John Schneider and pitching coach Pete Walker seems limited to Varland, Tyler Rogers, Braydon Fisher and Spencer Miles. How, then, will they be able to put together the necessary winning streak with starters averaging five innings, when six of the eight relievers are one-inning guys and when an unofficial policy is that nobody goes three games in a row – EVER.

EXAMPLE 1: On Wednesday, the Jays are locked in a 1-1 tie through seven, vs. the Red Sox, but break it wide open with five runs in the eighth. That seemingly allows Varland to sit down in favour of waiver claim knuckleballer Matt Waldron, who is asked simply to end the game nursing a 5-run lead. After one out, Waldron allows walk, double, single, double and Varland is forced to finish.

EXAMPLE 2: On Thursday, the Jays trail 1-0 through seven innings, vs. the Sox. Trailing and with two of their trusted guys, Miles and Fisher, already having been used, the Jays had Rogers up and warming next to Chase Lee in case they tied the game. They went with Lee and he allowed a grand slam to 3B Chad Durbin to break the game open. Laz Estrada, called up earlier on Thursday, then allowed two more in the ninth for the 7-0 Sox win, salvaging the series finale. Bullpen feast or famine.

“I think it’s realistic,” Schneider said of his team’s post-season dream. “I always look at how you’re playing in certain spurts, in certain weeks, when it is you’re catching other teams. We know who we’re playing. We know how we have to play. Wish we were scoring more to give the bullpen a break. The guys are playing their asses off right now. I think (getting back to .500) is realistic. I still think we’re a good team.”

If they want to sprint home, they cannot maintain the current parameters of bullpen usage. Shots on TV of Varland and Rogers leaning back on chairs with their feet up in a tight game in the eighth inning because they’ve been in two in a row is not what fans want to see. When does the sprint start?

The bottom line should be that players who are ready, willing and able should go that second inning if they are effective and if they are on a low pitch count and should be available on that third day if a win is on the line.

“I’m in no position to tell the coaches what I should do,” Varland said, Wednesday. “I just pitch when I’m told. It would be (pre-game) communication (with Pete) about how I feel, what they’re thinking. But at the end of the day, it’s their decision. They just know I’m ready always.

“Typically, if we want to be smart about it, for the longevity of everyone’s career, this would seem like the way to go. I pitched three days in a row multiple times. Uncommon though.”

As for Rogers with his unique, submarine delivery and sub-90 velocity, it might seem like he’s the best candidate for breaking the Jays’ unwritten rules of bullpen usage. Three days in a row? Two-plus innings in one outing? Rogers, signed for another two years, is quite a useful and trusted bullpen piece.

“I think in today’s game you see more complete pitching staffs,” the veteran Rogers said. “I think that’s why you don’t see a lot of starters go four time through (the batting order), because every reliever down there (in MLB ‘pens) has incredible stuff.”

Does Rogers think the Blue Jays have enough left in the tank to be making a 39-game playoff push?

“I think everyone’s pretty locked in with what they do,” Rogers insisted. “It’s time to keep your head down and go out there and empty the tank, really. That’s really all we’re focused on. It’s not trying to look too much at usages and stuff.”

But within those thus-far strictly enforced Jays parameters, Hoffman is clearly being missed. He would be a fifth reliever in the bullpen’s circle of trust. He has closer’s stuff. He’s better than Estrada, Lee, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Waldron and anyone else on the AAA-Buffalo shuttle. But the move for the future was made and it is what it is.

However, even Schneider seems itchy to shed the shackles of his bullpen rules and start to sprint to the finish. He didn’t come right out and say it on Wednesday but the clues were there between his lines.

“Those reins are off,” he began, when asked about the unofficial 3-day, 2-inning relief bans. “We threw those rules in the shitter in Philly. We’re at the point now where it’s kind of like, ‘Hey, if you feel good, we’re going to trust you and you’re going to get up. There’ll be fewer yellow lights (on the internal red-yellow-green pre-game reports).

“There’s a lot that goes into it, between Pete, (bullpen coach) Graham (Johnson), medical. We track everything. Okay, where is a quote-unquote danger zone for some guys. At the end of the day we’re at the point where if a guy says he’s good, okay, we’re going to make sure we’re not going to put him in harm’s way and if you’re good, you’re good … and you take the risk that it may not be the best version of themself, but there’s a lot that goes into it.

“We track it every single day. We’re trying to cut down on some of the guys throwing before the game. Even starters we’re at the point where you’ve got to kind of manage it. There’s a big group of people that talk about it every day.”

The question remains, will this discussion lead to more of a smart, desperate mindset.

The outrageous example of Mike Marshall

I am trying not to be the old guy shaking his fist, yelling at clouds, but in my first year with the Expos, back in 1973 at Jarry Park, there was a righthanded closer named Mike Marhsall. For Marshall, three straight days and one-inning limits were simply a starting off point.

His outrageous ’73 numbers, all in relief, showed 92 appearances and 179 innings, with a 14-11 record and 31 saves. Marshall, a totally unpleasant and abrasive personality, worked both ends of an Expos doubleheader eight times, threw four days in a row four times, plus three in a row four more and worked 2+ innings in 41 of his outings.

On Sept. 7, Marshall worked 3-innings in a 1-0 loss in Game 1 of a twinbill then in Game 2, Iron Mike went 8.1 more innings, allowing three runs on 11 hits. His next appearance was just two days later.

If you think all that apparent abuse must have burned Marshall out, it should be noted Mike was traded to the Dodgers for Willie Davis that winter and in 1974, he threw 208.1 innings in relief in 106 games, pitched 8 days in a row from May 17-24, won the Cy Young and threw 12 more innings in the post season, including the last five games of the World Series vs. the A’s, allowing one run.

Here’s an amusing aside. When I got to the Expos as a summer intern in 1973, there was only one trainer, Joe Liscio. The way he handled his pitchers was a pre-game rub with hot sauce, post-game routine with a bucket of ice and a pitching-arm rubdown with kale. For that ’73 season the Expos used a total of 15 pitchers for 162 games.

I recall in 1975, my first trip to the West Coast with the Expos, Liscio, a native New Yorker, took me after a Dodger Stadium game, for an evening at his beautiful ranch-style bungalow in the Hollywood Hills … where he explained to me about kale.

All I know is this game has really changed.