Blue Jays to consider six-man rotation as 2025 option

Age, health and starting depth important factors for Jays veterans

It may seem counterintuitive in terms of maximizing the Blue Jays’ heavy investment in starting pitching, but, in truth, it’s because the Canadian club has sunk so much of their total payroll into the rotation, they will consider as camp unfolds and with the input of their high-priced veterans, going to a modified six-man rotation for the 2025 season. The Jays, at spring training, will weigh this strategy, as will other teams, including the World Series champion Dodgers. It’s the likely wave of the future.

The Top 4 in the Jays’ talented starting group includes Kevin Gausman ($23-million), Jose Berrios ($18.0M), Chris Bassitt ($21.0M) and Max Scherzer ($15.5M). That’s four players at $77.5M, approximately one-third of total payroll. The fifth and sixth starters, who would join that group in a lengthened rotation would be Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez. As a group, the Jays’ starting rotation will average by the end of the season, a venerable 33-years-old … and not getting younger.

Why go to six? The way a traditional MLB five-man rotation works is that a pitcher makes his scheduled start then has four days to recharge, do long-toss, run to keep his legs strong, throw a bullpen and then gear up for another 100 pitches or more on the fifth day. If there is an off-day built into the schedule over that between-starts period, managers can choose to use it as an extra day for everyone in the rotation, allowing them to benefit from another 24 hours of recovery, or else he can skip over the weakest rotation link and have the top four guys throwing on regular rest.

One constant issue of concern with a basic five-man is that if any pitcher gets suddenly tweaked on the day of a game, or there is any lingering physical problem, a team must then improvise and resort to either a quick callup from Triple-A, or else they may choose to cobble together a “bullpen day.”

There is a common cliche in the game suggesting that the 162-game MLB season is a marathon, not a sprint. Never is that truer than within the team’s starting pitcher group. It’s a physical grind. Berrios is baseball’s ultimate marathon-man, with exactly 32 games started in each of the last six full seasons. Even Jose candidly revealed, in September, pitching on his sixth day, how much he appreciated that extra day, whenever it presented itself. If Berrios says it, believe it. Consider that even in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, if you project his 12 total starts in a 60-game schedule to a full season, it works out to 32 starts.

How the Blue Jays 6-man option to the All-Star break would work

What are the important numbers? Begin with the fact there are 109 days on the Jays’ schedule prior to the All-Star game. That’s March 27 to July 13, including 12 off days. Continue with the fact that in ‘24, the Blue Jays rotation averaged 6.1 innings for each of the 63 assignments they handled with an extra day of rest, but one full inning less than that, just 5.1 frames per start, in the 56 games in which they were handed the ball on regular, four days of rest. That is significant for the bullpen, as well.

Be clear, this “6-man” chart is not a strict, everyone-gets-an-equal-number-of-starts, but, instead, signifies more of a modified doling out of starting assignments, with the ultimate goal being to allow the Jays’ Top 4 starters an extra prep/recovery day as often as possible. Remember what Berrios said about that luxury. That being said, there would be only seven starts, combined with the six, that would require starters to go on regular, four days rest with the other 90 assignments on 5 days, or more.

The big question for Jays fans to consider is, would you rather have the 13^th pitcher on your staff be a sixth starter, who can also work long relief, when available, at least once through the order, or would you rather have a fringe No. 8 coin-toss type reliever, who is only useful to mop up when a game is out of hand. We remember in the final months of ’24 that MGR John Schneider would rely on the same five bullpen arms in games the Jays had a chance to win. It was basically a five-man circle of trust.

Following is a pitcher-by-pitcher summary of what a Jays modified six-man rotation looks like.

#1 Kevin Gausman: (34-years-old, $23.0M, 19 starts). Gaus has earned the right to be the opening day starter from among this impressive, veteran group of Blue Jays starters. Over his last four campaigns, beginning with the Giants in 2021, Gausman has gone 52-36, 3.28 ERA, averaging 180 innings and 32 starts per year. In this first-half six-man scenario, even as the No. 1, he would be asked to make just three starts on his normal fifth day and 16 others with an extra day.

Projected 19 Gaus starts: 3/27 vs O’s … 4/1 vs Nats … 4/7 @RedSox … 4/13 @O’s … 4/19 vs M’s … 4/25 @Yankees … 5/1 vs RedSox … 5/7 @Angels … 5/13 vs Rays … 5/18 vs Tigers … 5/24 vs Rays … 5/30 vs A’s … 6/5 vs Phils … 6/11 @Cards … 6/17 vs D’backs … 6/22 vs WhiteSox … 6/28 @RedSox … 7/4 vs Angels … 7/11 @A’s.

#2 Jose Berrios: (30 will be 31, $18.0M, 19 starts). The most amazing personal stat posted by any pitcher in this consistently durable Jays rotation is that, since Berrios first became a regular member of the Twins rotation back on May 13, 2017, he has never missed a single assignment due to injury. Unheard of. Even in his dismal 2022 season, where people questioned his future, the Jays record was 20-12 in his 32 starts. He adds another Gold Glove on the field whenever he toes the rubber.

Projected 19 La Maquina starts: 3/28 vs O’s … 4/2 vs Nats … 4/8 @RedSox … 4/14 vs Braves … 4/20 vs M’s … 4/26 @Yankees … 5/2 vs Guardians … 5/8 @Angels … 5/14 vs Rays … 5/20 vs Padres … 5/26 @Rangers … 6/1 vs A’s … 6/7 @Twins … 6/13 @Phils … 6/19 vs D’backs … 6/25 @Guardians … 7/1 vs Yankees … 7/7 @WhiteSox … 7/13 @A’s.

#3 Chris Bassitt: (36-years-old, $21.0M, 18 starts). Due to the amount of money Bassitt is owed for his last year and the fact that he has just the 2025 season remaining on his contract, many of the trade rumours surrounding the Jays involved sending Bassitt elsewhere, prior to or at some point during the coming season, then re-installing Y-Rod as a fulltime member of the rotation. A late bloomer, Bassitt, a mad professor on the mound, has improved with age and savvy. Since turning 30 is 68-42, 3.53 ERA and in five full seasons, over that stretch, averaged 171.0 innings per year.

Projected 18 Bassitt starts: 3/29 vs O’s … 4/4 @Mets … 4/10 @RedSox … 4/16 vs Braves … 4/22 @Astros … 4/27 @Yankees … 5/3 vs Guardians … 5/9 @M’s … 5/15 vs Rays … 5/21 vs Padres … 5/27 @Rangers … 6/3 vs Phils … 6/9 @Cards … 6/15 @Phils … 6/21 vs WhiteSox … 6/27 @RedSox … 7/3 vs Yankees … 7/9 @WhiteSox.

#4 Max Scherzer: (40 will be 41, $15.5M, 18 starts). If he can remain healthy for his 18 projected starts, pre-all-star, he would easily be better than just about any other No. 4 starter in the AL. However, coming off an injury-riddled 2024 in which he made just nine MLB starts for the Rangers and four at Triple-A and with a fastball velocity that sat at 92.5 mph both in games and also at an off-season personal showcase, this is a perfect slot for Max. At his peak his 4-seamer was mid-to-high 90s. He is an elite pitcher, trying to re-establish himself, on his way to Cooperstown.

Projected 18 Mad Max starts: 3/30 vs O’s … 4/5 @Mets … 4/11 @O’s … 4/18 vs M’s … 4/23 @Astros … 4/29 vs RedSox … 5/2 vs Guardians … 5/8 @Angels … 5/14 vs Rays … 5/20 vs Padres … 5/26 @Rangers … 6/4 vs Phils … 6/10 @Cards … 6/18 vs D’backs … 6/24 vs Guardians … 6/30 Yankees … 7/6 @Angels … 7/13 @A’s.

#5 Bowden Francis: (28 will be 29, approx. $0.85M, 15 starts). With fewer pre-All-Star starts on his plate than the four members of the rotation ahead of him, it takes into account any potential (and likely) innings-limit that may still exist for him, plus it acknowledges the reality that duplicating the fabulous performance of his final nine starts of 2024 will be difficult. Francis was 4-2, 1.53 ERA over those nine starts, after he admittedly made some key adjustments, mid-season. But with an off-season for opponents to study video and catch up with those adjustments, the results may be difficult for Francis to duplicate, unless he can adjust to hitters’ adjustments.

Projected 15 Francis starts: 3/31 vs Nats … 4/6 @Mets … 4/12 @O’s … 4/21 @Astros … 4/30 vs RedSox … 5/10 @M’s … 5/16 vs Tigers … 5/22 vs Padres … 5/28 @Rangers … 6/6 @Twins … 6/14 @Phils … 6/20 vs WhiteSox … 6/26 @Guardians … 7/2 vs Yankees … 7/8 @WhiteSox.

#6 Yariel Rodriguez: (28-years-old, $5.0M; 8 starts). The Cuban righthander was handed a starting role last year, as a professional-veteran rookie, with mixed results. Make no mistake, he will be a major-league starter at some point in the future, but with Scherzer entering the picture late and with Bassitt leaving after ‘25, Y-Rod is in a good spot for his continued development. The advantage of knowing when, as the sixth guy, he will be making his eight starts is that, between starts, he would then be available for long relief at other times, as an eighth bullpen arm, notwithstanding the days he needs for his prep and for winding down from that octet of assignments.

Projected 8 Y-Rod starts: 4/9 @RedSox… 4/15 vs Braves… 5/4 vs Guardians… 5/25 @Rays… 5/31 vs A’s… 6/8 @Twins… 6/29 @RedSox… 7/5 vs Angels.

Jays Rotation depth chart, 7-10: RH Jake Bloss, LH Adam Macko, RH Adam Kloffenstein, LH Eric Lauer

Current Injured List: RH Alek Manoah, LH Ricky Tiedemann.

Projected MLB Bullpen: CL-Jeff Hoffman; Setup-Yimi Garcia, Chad Green; Nick Sandlin, Erik Swanson; LH Brendon Little, *Ryan Yarbrough (Unsigned). (With room for one more MLB reliever).

Spring Candidates: LH Richard Lovelady (non-roster), RH Zach Pop, RH Ryan Burr, RH Tommy Nance

*If the Jays re-sign Yarbrough then, with Y-Rod, they would have two guys that can go through the lineup in relief at least once, relying on Yarbrough more in games surrounding Y-Rod’s eight starts. The beauty becomes the flexibility the six-man plan affords, if one of your Top 5 guys tweaks something or has to miss a start, not always having to reach down to the ranks of Buffalo or disrupt on-hand relievers’ routines.

*Pitcher and catchers report in Dunedin on Feb. 13. It’s getting real.