Blue Jays should simply start with Plan B

With Soto off the table, Let’s Go!!

Certainly, the potential signing of Shohei Ohtani, last winter, would have yielded a significant business opportunity for Rogers ownership, opening up lucrative Asian markets, exponentially bumping up the merch sales, creating a huge boost to the wireless and streaming services, all to help pay the Ohtani tab, earning back much of the lofty expenditure over the course of a 10-year deal.

But this year, following the crazy, five-team obsession and pursuit of Juan Soto, there seems to have been no such extracurricular sources of income in Plan A for the Jays grand poohbahs to consider. This would have been strictly a baseball move, with no guarantee of a ring. The rest of the roster would have suffered in ‘25. In fact, it says here that Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins dodged a bullet, but that being said, they must now get serious, as Plan B replaces Plan A, seeming far more realistic.

The Blue Jays, in order to make up the 16 wins required to go from 74-88 to 90-72, always needed far more of a bump than simply one remarkable outfielder, Soto, at an AAV of $51-million. That 90-win total they seek will surely earn a wild-card spot and with a foot in the Oct. door, we’ve seen what can happen.

We are here to help. The Jays eight-man, hot-stove shopping list should now look like this: 1 corner OF with power; 1 established infielder, either 2B/3B; 1 veteran mid-rotation starter; 1 veteran C capable of 70-90 starts. 2 back-end relievers, capable of setup or closing + 2 power arms in middle relief.

Following is an educated, detailed breakdown of where the Blue Jays currently stand, in terms of payroll for 2025, using figures from the reliable resources of websites, Cot’s Baseball Contracts, FanGraphs Roster Resource and MLBTradeRumors. Balance this knowledge with the post-season assurance by Shapiro that the opening day payroll would be quite similar to 2024 — which was $225,362,600.

Right Now, commitments for ‘25, as of Dec. 9.

Guaranteed contracts (8) $119.5M: George Springer $22.5M; Kevin Gausman $23.0M; Chris Bassitt $21.0M; Jose Berrios $18.0M; Bo Bichette $16.5M; Chad Green $10.5M; Yariel Rodriguez $5.0M; Erik Swanson $3.0M.

Arbitration-eligible estimates (6) $46.5M: Vlad Guerrero Jr. $29.6M; Daulton Varsho $7.7M; Alejandro Kirk $4.1M; Alek Manoah $2.4M; Ernie Clement $1.7M; Zach Pop $1.0.

Pre-Arb under club control (6, all to be under $1.0M) $5.4M: Likely Bowden Francis; Davis Schneider; Spencer Horwitz; Brendon Little; Will Wagner; Loperfido/Lukes.

Current Summary: Listed above are 20 Blue Jays roster players at a total of $171.4M. With Manoah, remaining, but on the IL for the foreseeable future, plus $1,669,474 the Jays are paying the Pirates as part of the deal for the Isiah Kiner-Falefa contract, that leaves the front office with $52,293,126 for the remaining seven opening day players.

Obviously, I am not involved in the everyday operations of the Blue Jays, but as a public service and as someone who receives more attention to my work if the team is successful, I would like to offer up just one of the many courses of action that would fit within that “same-as-last-year” payroll budget. Clearly, there are different ways to fill out the Jays roster and honestly believe that 90 wins is a possibility…but, the indisputable fact is they have to get off their ass, forget about the Soto fail, and start spending that money right now. Here are my shadow GM suggestions.

Rotation 6+1: Berrios, Gausman, Bassitt, Francis, Y-Rod, Manoah (IL), ADD free-agent RH Cal Quantrill ($9.0M).

When the season ended, most observers thought that the rotation was one area where Atkins and co. did not really need to add. They had the breakthrough of Francis, plus Rodriguez learning and returning to the routine of a starter, after a year off of affiliated pro ball. On the horizon were RH Jake Bloss and LH Adam Macko. It was the Jays, themselves, that pointed to their desire to add another starting pitcher and since then, outside observers in the U.S. media have unfairly labelled the rotation as a weakness. It’s not and this desire to add another starter is actually a look ahead to benefit 2026 and beyond, when the current group ages out. Quantrill was non-tendered by the Rockies, with a projected arb-salary of $9.0M. He will be pitching as a 30-year-old and is a native of Port Hope (ON). Sea-level would agree with him.

Bullpen 4+4: Green, Swanson, Little, Pop, then add 2 experienced high-leverage like RH Kirby Yates ($7.0) and trade for RH David Bednar ($6.6M) from Pirates … finally, + 2 big arms in Jan-Feb, .

Atkins spoke of the encouraging possibility of the Jays reuniting with Canadian CL Jordan Romano, but that’s down the road. The Jays at one time liked Yates enough to sign him as a high-leverage free-agent, but he was injured and never pitched here. He is coming off a good year and would fit nicely, if healthy. As for Bednar, he also has experience as a closer and the Jays and Pirates have many front-office connections. A couple of the Buffalo Boyz might do the trick.

The Jays have a roster full of dice-rolls in the bullpen, so spring training will be important as a virtual tryout camp in rounding out the eight-man pen.

Infield 4+2: Guerrero Jr, Bichette, Clement, Wagner, then trade for 2B Brandon Lowe ($10.5M) from reeling Rays who may need to save salary while playing at Steinbrenner Field. Fill out the six-man slate of infielders with one of Addison Barger, Leo Jimenez or Orelvis Martinez.

With Lowe playing most days at second base, then Clement and Wagner could share third-base as a right-left hitting combo. Wagner has played more than 240 games at third base, in college and the minors. Clement showed what he can do, but is more suited as a utility guy. Lowe has six homers in 71 at-bats at Rogers Centre including one off the right field upper-deck facing.

Outfield 4+1: Springer, Varsho (IL), Schneider, Lukes/Loperfido, plus LF Anthony Santander ($22.0M). The Varsho shoulder should be ready to go by the beginning of May and while he is out, there is room for both Loperfido and Lukes, with the lefthanded acquisition from the Astros as the better centrefield option while waiting for the Gold Glove-winning Varsho.

Catcher 1+1: Kirk, plus C Carson Kelly ($4.0M). The free-agent Kelly is a 30-year-old Oregon native, who spent part of his youth playing ball in Markham (ON) after his father’s work brought him to the GTA. He has played 90-plus games behind the plate in four of the past five full seasons, which is perfect as a complement to the sometimes condition-challenged Kirk.

Summary: The Blue Jays payroll, with the suggested six player additions by Griff’s the Pitch, plus one random reliever, to arrive in the new year, in projecting their estimated or existing ’25 salaries, would bump the total to $232-million. That is a $6.8M bump over last year, more than Shapiro suggested, but the threshold for the 2025 luxury tax is being increased so maybe they can make it work.

Making use of all of these changes, let’s have a look at what could, in this fantasy scenario, be an opening day lineup for the Jays as they look to contend once again.

Opening Day Batting Order vs. O’s:

RF Springer; SS Bichette; 1B Guerrero; LF Santander; 2B Br.Lowe; C Kirk; 3B Wagner; DH Horwitz; CF Loperfido.

Rotation: Berrios, Gausman, Bassitt, Francis, Quantrill.

Bullpen: Yates, Bednar, Green, Swanson, Little, Y-Rod, *Pop, *Ryan Burr.

Bench: UT Schneider, C Kelly, UT Clement, OF Lukes

NOTE: These roster additions and constructions are merely suggestions for the Jays front office to help them quickly get over the disappointment of losing out on Soto. I would love a Griff’s Baseball Mailbag using your personal ideas and suggestions in helping the Jays rebuild a contender. Leave your thoughts in Comments and after the Winter Meetings I will feature some of your thoughts in the next Griff’s Baseball Mailbag.