Blue Jays rotation heading to half-way mark

Establishing Jays’ back end starting group key to second half

Emerging from Blue Jays training camp, in late March, the club’s five-man rotation looked solid and deep. The thinking was that even if RH Max Scherzer -- entering with just 17 combined MLB starts in 2023-24 -- could only give the team around 20 starts in ‘25, that combined with the emergence of RH Bowden Francis from the second half of last year, plus an anticipated post all-star rehab of RH Alek Manoah and the potential rapid ascension of MLB Top 100 RH Trey Yesavage, it would be a solid five-man group. But, we’ve all been around long enough and shit happens.

Certainly, there have been no surprises from the established Top 3 in the Jays’ rotation, Berrios, Gausman and Bassitt.

RH Kevin Gausman is re-emerging as, at least, the co-No. 1 and a good sign of that is when, even without his best stuff, the Jays are able to win and compete. When RH Jose Berrios can locate his 2-seamer that starts off the plate and tails back to the inside corner vs. lefty hitters, he can be devastating. Meanwhile, RH Chris Bassitt is a solid, manic, entertaining No. 3, who needs his run support and gets it often enough. So that top 60-percent of the five-man group was all good.

But then came Scherzer’s abbreviated 3-inning start in late March, in his Blue Jays debut. He was over-optimistically making his regular-season debut, after a successful, healthy spring. In hindsight, one wonders how the Blue Jays pre-signing physical they needed to complete before committing the $15.5 million, how that physical missed the nagging thumb issue that Scherzer has shrugged off as having been a problem since 2023. Has that issue been solved and if so, is there anything else that will pop up.

The Jays minus Scherzer, at least, were left with four healthy starters, trying to fill in for Mad Max with an array of seven different No. 5 starters. Several of those were just “openers” but others like Easton Lucas, were hopeful of entering the rotation on a somewhat fulltime basis. The wheel has now landed, for the moment, on veteran international LH Eric Lauer. But if it ain’t one thing… Then there was the implosion of Francis, a man that had created a winter of hope that they had fallen into a diamond in the rough, a throw-in for Rowdy Tellez from the Brewers several years ago.

But a head-spinning barrage of bombs by opponents had carried Francis to the top of the unwanted standings for most home runs allowed in the AL. That vexing inability to keep balls in the yard has sabotaged the 29-year-old’s season and, possibly, his future. If he threw 192 innings, he is on pace for an unacceptable 57 home runs.

How has it come undone so quickly? It would seem that after Francis made his adjustments in the final two months of last season, seemingly carrying low-hit games into the sixth and seventh innings every time out, that opponents caught up to his adjustments and he has failed to respond in kind. Thus his current, mundane stuff does not play. He needs to catch up again with those that have caught up, but that was never going to happen at the major-league level. Thus came the IL stint and the impingement that will allow him to work on things in the lab, out of the line of fire and without hurting the Jays and any potential playoff hopes.

Meanwhile, as Scherzer continues to work his way back and Francis is temporarily, or permanently, removed from the rotation, a pleasant surprise has seemingly emerged in Lauer, who in what amounted to a one-round fight, outbattled RH Spencer Turnbull in a tussle for the No. 5 spot behind Scherzer. But Turnbull, a former Tigers prospect, with a MLB no-hitter under his belt, needs to stay prepared in case Scherzer breaks down again, as has been his recent history.

Beyond that, the Jays are hoping the rotation-cavalry is on the way to save the back-end of the rotation, as Manoah, with a new attitude and belief in himself works his way back and Yesavage, a 22-year-old with dynamic numbers at three ever-progressing levels, after being the Jays first selection in the ‘24 draft, continues to impress.

There is also a chance for GM Ross Atkins to add another starting arm at the July 31 deadline using the excess of minor-league and MLB fourth outfielders as trade-bait. But, no matter how they go about it, as the Jays approach the mid-way mark, by the weekend, they are on a path to wild-card contention…if they can only get the Nos. 4-5 rotation spots in order to compete.

The Jays have gone the first 30 games from battling to reach .500 to now bouncing around from 5-8 games above break-even for the last month of play. The next plateau should be another hot streak of 12-15 games to get to the plateau of 10-12 games above .500. That allows them to tread water before a final push. But it all depends on Scherzer and filling out a reliable back-end.