Blue Jays roll the dice with bullpen night in Game 4 in the Bronx

AL champs include just 60 regular season starts on this ALDS roster

The Blue Jays analytics team, in all its AI-aided wisdom, during the bye week which included just two Rogers Centre intrasquad games, informed the more important Jays group, the one in the dugout, the only one that matters to the history of the franchise, that despite their league-high 94 regular-season wins, that they would be entering the playoffs with just three starting pitchers on the 26-man ALDS active roster. Note that the usual magic number of starters needed for a 5-or-7-game series is four.

At one point, as late as early September, the Jays’s list of starting rotation candidates numbered 6-7 legit and was considered one of the roster areas that separated them from the rest. Now in Game 4 a bullpen day.

Left off of the Jays 26-man roster for the first round were Chris Bassitt (31GS), Jose Berrios (30GS), Max Scherzer (17GS), Bowden Francis (14GS) and 14 other random starts called upon over the course of the 162-game marathon. We will soon see if the baseball gods were in any way amused by the head-scratching decision to surprisingly reward loyalty, durability, experience and, in one case, future Hall-of-Fame status, with cheerleading seats on the pine for the first round. Sometimes the smartest people in the room are the ones not always trying to prove how smart they are.

The stunning result of Tuesday’s 9-6 Yankees victory, a relentless Jays loss, following an early five-run lead in a potential series-clinching Game 3 has provided Canadian ball fans with more questions than answers.

And, oh yeah, what happened to the Jays elite defence? Could Shane Bieber have continued on in this game if the defence had been better? Consider the 2020 Cy Young winner could have escaped the first inning on just seven pitches if second-baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa had been able to field a Ben Rice groundball with two outs and Aaron Judge on first. Instead, he faced two more batters, allowed a run-scoring single and threw 11 more pitches. That helped turn over the lineup latter.

That was just the first of many defensive gaffes that marked this Blue Jays confidence-shaking debacle. In the bottom of the fourth, with Mason Fluharty oozing shove, one out, nobody on, Addison Barger raced towards the foul line in short left field tracking a popup. Left fielder Davis Schneider, in the lineup because of the lefty starter, was there in plenty of time to take charge, but he allowed Barger to continue to track. Suddenly a gust of wind from right field (perhaps the Babe Ruth’s ghostly breath blowing from Monument Park) moved the ball even closer to the line. Barger accelerated and blew the catch. Fluharty then walked Trent Grisham and was gone..

That prompted the manager to bring in the super-charged righthander, Louis Varland, to face this generation’s Bambino. On a two-strike pitch, Varland tried to come inside to back Judge off the plate with 100 m.p.h. heat that would then set him up for anything on the outside corner, while remaining ahead in the count. Great strategy, but greater hitter. Judge found a pitch that was three balls inside and kept his hands inside as he unloaded. The Babe, this time, made sure the right-to-left wind died down just enough for the titanic blast to hit the top of the foul pole and tie the game. From that point, the Yankees bullpen took over … also against the normal script.

There is a certain irony to the fact that IKF started the game, booted a grounder, was replaced by Barger, who then botched a popup that resulted, ultimately, in the game being tied. Other miscues by the Jays included a topspin grounder to his right under Vlad Guerrero Jr’s glove, a ball in the dirt that the great wall of Mexico, Alejandro Kirk, failed to block that led to a run and, then, an awkward dive by right fielder Anthony Santander who was only in the field instead of DH because of the short porch at Yankee Stadium that gives the outfielder less real-estate responsibility. It’s doubtful Santander will be anything except DH the rest of the way.

Where might the Jays front office have overthought this series? Their roster decision included three starters and 10 relievers, including four lefthanders. That’s fine, theoretically, except when one of those lefties is Justin Bruihl, instead of one of the righthanded starters that failed to make the cut.

The high foreheads in the analytics room examined the key lefthanded Yankees hitters and found certain windows of usage for their own southpaw relievers that included the concept of Grisham (LH), Cody Bellinger (LH) and Ben Rice (LH) who would be surrounding Judge. The option at that point was always going to be in those situations the ability to walk Judge, no matter the situation.

In this case, with the rookie Fluharty exuding dominant body language, that situation might have been a moment for the guy in the dugout to roll the dice and load the bases for the southpaw then facing lefty-lefty hitters with a three-run lead. Instead, with the game only in the fourth inning, in came Varland, followed by a Superman bomb off the pole in left and the Yankees dugout and Stadium crowd were back in the series heading to Game 4 with the Jays confidence surely shaken.

The good news? Nobody in the Jays bullpen on Tuesday threw more than 20 pitches and with an off-day on Thursday, it remains all hands on deck. Perhaps, the sweatiest of palms in the Jays’ organization right now may be with those deep-thinkers who suggested the pitching roster.

The good news for the Jays is that if they do end up going to Game 5, both Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage will be on regular rest. It’s unlikely, at that point, given their performance in Games 1-2 that the bullpen will be much of a factor -- until the nervy ninth with Hoffman likely on the hill.

Nobody said it would be easy.