Blue Jays need some key changes to reach October goal

Dodgers’ series loss exposes important truths

To quote from the Gospel of John (not Schneider) and in the words of Jesus (not Luzardo), “…and the truth will set you free.” John 8:32.

The major-league freedom-setting truth is that the weekend’s Blue Jays series loss in Los Angeles may have been the best thing for this team, a way to arrive at the way, the truth and the life of what needs to be done before these surprising Jays can consider themselves contenders, capable of going deep into October.

After sweeping through their three games in Colorado, outscoring the hapless Rockies 45-6, leaving Denver on a mile-high, high, the Blue Jays enjoyed an off-day then played three games at Dodger Stadium. The AL East leaders were embarrassed in the first two, then scraped out a final-game 5-4 win on Sunday in a series that many in that clubhouse and in the front office hoped would have been a World Series preview. Instead, it became a gauge of how far they had to go.

Where the Jays are right now, at 69-50, with a four-game lead over the Red Sox, is good, but it’s like reaching base camp in an assault on Mount Everest. You’re 18,000 feet up. You have accomplished a lot. You may think you’re close. The air is thin, where you have trouble catching your breath, but then you look up 11,000 more feet to view the summit and how far you still have to go. Time to strap it on, men.

Regarding the Jays lofty power ranking with the best record in the AL, there were two trains of thought, headed to the West Coast. One group suggested that since they had reached the summit of the division, already, with this plucky group of 26 players, why change anything. So, then, what happens when Andres Gimenez, George Springer, Nick Sandlin, Yimi Garcia and Shane Bieber come back from the IL? And how can you consider a six-man rotation when everyone is doing so well on four days rest? That was the flawed train of thought for that group of optimists.

The other group, that includes much of the forever-fatalistic fanbase, believes that manager John Schneider will find a way to screw it up, that GM Ross Atkins didn’t do enough at the deadline. That Vlad Guerrero Jr. is a huge waste of money. They believe that Jose Berrios has run out of gas after seven seasons of never missing a start and that Jeff Hoffman is the worst closer among all contenders. Enjoy your off day.

Thankfully, the Dodgers series, despite losing two of three, may have been just what was needed to bring both sides of the Jays argument to a better understanding.

For those that believe everything is fine, the question is, how can you be contenders when you play an August game vs. the World Series champs, with this lineup — a guy named Buddy Kennedy at third base, Davis Schneider in left field and Myles Straw in right. Sure, they were facing a two-time Cy Young Award winner, Blake Snell, after facing three time Cy guy, Clayton Kershaw the night before. Then, after the Dodgers decided to give Yosh Yamamoto extra rest, they replaced him with Tyler Glasnow, who surely would also have a Cy of his own if not for an injury plagued career.

In response to this trio of talented Dodgers starters, the Jays lineup entered the series averaging 15 runs in each of the previous three games and leading the majors in batting average and as the toughest team to strike out, while hovering at the forefront of many other batting categories. The Jays for 25 innings prior to Vlad’s clutch, game-tying homer in the eighth inning on Sunday, had put together a paltry team batting mark of 20-for-91-.220, with four runs scored in 25 innings, going 3-for-19 with runners in scoring position. Then came the Guerrero Jr. blast, followed by Addison Barger and, leading off the ninth, the game-winner by Ernie Clement.

The Jays are luck to come home 4-2 on the road trip, but they will take it and try and learn from it.

LESSONS LEARNED

*The new-look Jays bullpen, post trade deadline, is struggling and needs help either from returning relievers or bounce-back from key members. Even John Schneider in Sunday’s post-game gave the ‘pen a little too much credit for its overall performance in Sunday’s nervy 5-4 win that saved the road trip and the flight home. It wasn’t good.

After just three innings from starter Eric Lauer, the Jays bullpen took over and worked six combined innings, with a very busy line, including a hold, a blown save, a win and a huge save by the rookie, Fluharty. What is concerning about that bullpen effort, other than Louis Varland and Fluharty, is that five hurlers combined in 3.2 innings, for two hits and nine walks, throwing just 43 strikes in 101 pitches. Concerning.

Hoffman, who I still believe is the Jays’s long-term solution at closer, did something that seems impossible. While recording just two outs, he threw 33 pitches, only 10 of them strikes, without allowing a run, with a blown save and credited with a win.

Hoffman had not pitched in a week, given that the games in Colorado were all blowouts and they never had the lead in the first two games at Chavez Ravine. Consider in Hoffman’s last four appearances with at least four days of rest, the 32-year-old, under contract for two more years, has allowed 4ER in 3.2 IP, with five hits and six bases-on-balls. Eleven baserunner in less than four innings. Possible solution? Make sure Hoffman logs one inning the game before every off-day, if necessary.

*But, it's not just Hoffman who needs to pick it up. The performance of Yariel Rodriguez has been alarming. After re-establishing himself and finding a key setup role, earlier in the year, the second-year player has allowed 8R, 7H and 6BB in his last four games – three innings. Then there’s Seranthony Dominguez, whose last three outings lacked any command. He has allowed 7R in 1.1 IP over three appearances.

Brendon Little, who is the key lefthander in the pen, has allowed 8R in 4IP, with 7H and 3 BB, throwing just 44 strikes among his 82 pitches. That is 20.5 pitches per inning. If this group is too exhausted to self-correct, that means the Jays are in deep trouble. On the IL are Nick Sandlin and Yimi Garcia, while there has been a trial balloon floated that young stud, RH Trey Yesavage might become the extra September pitcher and be able to log multiple electric innings on the back of a six-man rotation. That would be a great move much like David Price did with the Rays in 2008.

SIX-MAN ROTATION

*After watching Chris Bassitt and Eric Lauer struggle in L.A., now with 43 games remaining on the schedule and after seeing the positive reaction, prior to the road trip, from Jose Berrios on possibly being given an extra recover day for the final seven weeks, it seems clear that the starting rotation would benefit from going to six-men, heading into what they hope will be a long day’s journey into the October night.

*The six-man concept could begin as early as August 17, with Shane Bieber activated to face the Rangers at Rogers Centre on Sunday. The internal suggestion is out there that the former Cy Young winner (2020 Guardians) might need one more rehab start for AAA-Buffalo. Why? His last start for the Bisons was 5.2 innings and 78 pitches. What would the Jays learn from a seventh rehab start?

*For the final 37 games (following this time through the order), a total of 28 of those remaining starts would be on the sixth day, with Bassitt and Lauer being the two given extra days when necessary, due to off-days. Berrios would get his usual 32 starts (for the 7^th straight full season). Bieber would get seven key major-league starts and if there is any minor injury within the group or need to adjust the rotation, the replacement will be on hand instead of down the QEW in Buffalo, or on the road.

The question that the manager brought up, in response, is if you go to six starters, you would have to shorten the bullpen to seven. Hey listen, would you rather have Bieber and Lauer in the rotation, or your eighth starter handed a mop looking for a blowout? Besides, on Sept. 1, teams are allowed to add a pitcher, plus a position player.

CONCLUSION

That Sunday game in L.A. could turn out to be so important to all sides. It showed that the Jays are a team with heart that does not give up and can scrap and hang in against even the best teams, plus the series showed that this current roster is far from complete and staying a step ahead of the competition should be the goal.

As for those pessimists that suggest the Dodgers series showed the Jays are not yet ready to compete with the best, the bottom line is that since being swept by the Phillies June 13-15, in Philly, the Jays, when facing MLB teams that are currently in a post-season position, are 12-5. As for the remaining schedule, the Jays have 15 games out of the 43 remaining against teams in a post-season slot.

Clearly, the performance from players on hand needs to improve. Some changes in strategy and personnel need to be made, but the Dodgers series was a much needed splash of cold water, delivered from a glass that remains half full.