Blue Jays Name Jose Berrios Opening Day Starter

Max Scherzer becomes question mark with thumb issue

Given the meticulous major-league player acquisition process wherein no MLB trade or signing can be finalized until a thorough physical and examination of said player’s injury history has been conducted by his new medical staff, one must assume that within those Blue Jays tests the current nagging setback that has befallen the future Hall-of-Famer, Max Scherzer, would have stuck out like a sore thumb.

But here we sit, just 10 days ahead of the regular-season opener vs. the O’s at Rogers Centre on March 27 and Scherzer’s short-term status has become an issue. After three outstanding Grapefruit League starts, Scherzer, who was signed in early February to a one-year, $15.5-million bounce-back contract, has reported the recurrence of a thumb issue and was held back from his start, No. 4.

On Monday, instead of facing the Phillies or Yankees, Mad Max remained at the PDC to work 50 pitches against minor leaguers, not as a test of his skills, but instead as a gauge of his pain threshold. But if the Jays were previously aware of a thumb that Scherzer says has been an issue for three years, they do not seem overly concerned. Nevertheless, it bears watching and, perhaps, adjustment to his routine.

It may seem counterintuitive in terms of maximizing the club’s heavy investment in the Top 4 of their starting pitching, but because the Jays have sunk so much payroll into the rotation, they should take all steps to protect that investment and consider a modified six-man rotation for the 2025 season. The Jays, at spring training, have quietly been weighing that and other options. When asked, days ago, about choosing a starter/reliever lane for Yariel Rodriguez, pitching coach Pete Walker explained to a national TV audience “We are keeping him stretched out as a starter.”

The Top 4 in the Jays’ starting group includes Kevin Gausman ($23-million), Jose Berrios ($18.0M), Chris Bassitt ($21.0M) and Max Scherzer ($15.5M). That’s four players at $77.5M, approximately one-third of total payroll. The fifth and sixth starters, who would join that group in an imagined 6-man strategy would be Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez.

The Jays have various plans in hand and here's how the 6-man might work, given that they have already settled on a 1-2 of Berrios and Gausman. There is the old argument, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” But, as a group, the Jays rotation will average by season’s end, a venerable 33-years-old … not getting any younger.

Why could the Jays go to six starters? Background. The way that a traditional MLB five-man rotation works is a pitcher makes his scheduled start then takes four days to recharge, via long-toss, running distances to keep his legs strong, throw a bullpen, all to gear up for another 100 pitches or more on the fifth day. As pitchers age, they appreciate an extra day if you make it five days off. If there’s a scheduled off-day, managers can choose to use it as an extra day for everyone in the quintet, allowing all to benefit from another 24 hours of recovery, or else he can pass over the weakest rotation link and have the other four guys throwing on regular rest.

There are other advantages. A potential crisis with a basic five-man is that if a pitcher gets suddenly tweaked on the day of, or leading up to a game (it happens all the time) or if there is any lingering physical problem, short term, the team must act quickly to improvise and resort to either a sudden call-up from Triple-A and sometimes the Bisons rotation isn’t exactly sync’d up, or else they can cobble together a “bullpen day” which affects the relief group in the days immediately after.

There is a common cliche suggesting that a 162-game MLB season is a marathon, not a sprint. Never is that truer than within any team’s starting group. It’s a physical grind. Berrios is baseball’s ultimate marathon-man, with exactly 32 games started in each of the last six full seasons. He candidly revealed, in September, how much he appreciated that extra day of rest, whenever it presented itself. If Berrios said it, then you can believe it. Consider even in the COVID 2020 season, if you projected his 12 starts to a full season, it works out to, yup, 32 starts.

How the Blue Jays 6-man option to the All-Star break would work out

What are the important numbers? Begin with the fact there are 109 days on the Jays’ schedule prior to the All-Star game. That’s March 27 to July 13, including 12 off days. Follow with the fact that in ‘24, the Blue Jays rotation averaged 6.1 innings for each of the 63 assignments they were rewarded with an extra day of rest, logging a full one inning less than that, 5.1 per start, in the 56 games when they were handed the ball on regular, four days rest.

Be clear, this chart is not a strict, everyone-gets-an-equal-number-of-starts, six-man rotation, but, instead, more of a modified handing out of starting assignments, with the ultimate goal being to afford the Jays’ Top 5 starters extra prep/recovery time as often as possible.

The big question for Jays fans is would you rather have that 13^th pitcher on your staff be a sixth starter, who can also work long relief (Y-Rod), or would you rather have a fringe No. 8 comme-ci, comme-ca reliever, whose primary role is to mop up when a game is out of hand. Over the final months of ’24 it became obvious that MGR John Schneider relied on the same five bullpen arms in games in which the Jays had a chance to win. It was basically a five-man circle of trust.

Following is a pitcher-by-pitcher look at what a Jays modified six-man rotation could look like in the first 97 games.

#1 Jose Berrios: (30 will be 31, $18.0M, projected 19 starts prior to All-Star Game). The most amazing stat posted by any pitcher in this consistently durable rotation is that, since Berrios first became a regular member of the Twins rotation back on May 13, 2017, he has never missed a single starting assignment due to injury. Amazing. Even in his personally dismal 2022 season, the Jays record was 20-12 in his 32 starts. He adds another Gold Glove on the field whenever he toes the rubber. In this proposed first-half scenario, as a No. 1, he would be asked to make just three starts on his normal fifth day and 16 others with an extra day.

Projected 19 Berrios starts: 3/27 vs O’s … 4/1 vs Nats … 4/7 @RedSox … 4/13 @O’s … 4/19 vs M’s … 4/25 @Yankees … 5/1 vs RedSox … 5/7 @Angels … 5/13 vs Rays … 5/18 vs Tigers … 5/24 vs Rays … 5/30 vs A’s … 6/5 vs Phils … 6/11 @Cards … 6/17 vs D’backs … 6/22 vs WhiteSox … 6/28 @RedSox … 7/4 vs Angels … 7/11 @Sac.

#2 Kevin Gausman: 34-years-old, $23.0M, 19 projected starts prior to ASG). Gaus could easily have been the opening day starter, chosen from among this impressive, veteran group of Jays starters. Over his last four campaigns, beginning with the Giants in 2021, Gausman is 52-36, 3.28 ERA, averaging 180 innings and 32 starts per year. In this first-half scenario, as a No. 2, through mid-July, he would make just one start on normal four days rest and after making his Game 2, March 28 start, would have 17 more with five days of rest.

Projected 19 Gaus starts: 3/28 vs O’s … 4/2 vs Nats … 4/8 @RedSox … 4/14 vs Braves … 4/20 vs M’s … 4/26 @Yankees … 5/2 vs Guardians … 5/8 @Angels … 5/14 vs Rays … 5/20 vs Padres … 5/26 @Rangers … 6/1 vs A’s … 6/7 @Twins … 6/13 @Phils … 6/19 vs D’backs … 6/25 @Guardians … 7/1 vs Yankees … 7/7 @WhiteSox … 7/13 @A’s.

#3 Chris Bassitt: (36-years-old, $21.0M, 18 starts pre-ASG). Due to the amount of money Bassitt was owed for his final year, many of the hot-stove trade rumours surrounding the Jays rotation involved sending Bassitt elsewhere, re-installing Y-Rod as a fulltime member of the starting five. But it didn’t happen. A late bloomer, Bassitt, a mad professor on the mound who doesn’t mind sharing his theories, has only improved with age. Since turning 30, he is 68-42, 3.53 ERA and in five full seasons, over that stretch, averaged 171.0 innings per year. In this scenario, beginning with his Game 3 start vs. the O’s, Bassitt would pitch on normal rest one time, on five days rest 15 times and make one start on his seventh day.

Projected 18 Bassitt starts: 3/29 vs O’s … 4/4 @Mets … 4/10 @RedSox … 4/16 vs Braves … 4/22 @Astros … 4/27 @Yankees … 5/3 vs Guardians … 5/9 @M’s … 5/15 vs Rays … 5/21 vs Padres … 5/27 @Rangers … 6/3 vs Phils … 6/9 @Cards … 6/15 @Phils … 6/21 vs WhiteSox … 6/27 @RedSox … 7/3 vs Yankees … 7/9 @WhiteSox.

#4 Bowden Francis: (28 will pitch at 29, approx. $0.85M, 18 starts prior to the All-Star Game). He would normally have slotted in as the fifth starter, as a concession to a probable innings-limit given he is the least experienced of the Top 5. There is a danger in vaulting him over Scherzer, but Scherzer circumstances combine to give him the thumbs-up. There is the reality that duplicating the fabulous performance of his final nine starts will be difficult. Francis was 4-2, 1.53 ERA over those nine starts and admitted he made key adjustments at mid-season. Now, with a full off-season for opponents to study video and catch up with Bowden’s adjustments, the impressive results may be difficult to duplicate, unless he is able to adjust to the adjustments. This suggested schedule for 18 starts has him working on his sixth day 12 times and going with extra rest in three others.

Projected 18 Bow-Fran starts: 3/30 vs O’s … 4/5 @Mets … 4/11 @O’s … 4/18 vs M’s … 4/23 @Astros … 4/29 vs RedSox … 5/6 vs Angels … 5/11 @M’s … 5/17 vs Tigers … 5/23 @ Rays … 5/29 vs A’s … 6/4 vs Phils … 6/10 @Cards … 6/18 vs D’backs … 6/24 vs Guardians … 6/30 vs Yankees … 7/6 @Angels … 7/12 @A’s.

#5 Max Scherzer: (40 will be 41, $15.5M, projected 15 starts pre-ASG). The good thing about being slotted in here is that if Scherzer is forced to back off any given assignment, there should always be someone available to step in on regular four days rest. If Max can remain healthy for his 15 projected starts, pre-all-star game, he would easily be better than any other MLB No. 5 starter. His spring training numbers have been astounding and his influence on the rest of the pitching staff has been evident for anyone to see. However, coming off an injury-riddled 2024 in which he made just nine MLB starts for the Rangers and four at Triple-A and with a fastball velocity that sat at 92.5 mph both in games and again this spring, this is a perfect slot for Max, with enough built in days off to give him his best chance. He is an elite pitcher, trying to re-establish himself for maximum a couple more years, on his inevitable way to Cooperstown. In this scenario, Max would need to pitch on regular rest just once. This suggested schedule for 15 starts has him working on his sixth day nine times and going with extra rest in five others, following his season debut on March 31.

Projected 15 Mad Max starts: 3/31 vs Nats … 4/6 @Mets … 4/12 @O’s … 4/21 @Astros … 4/30 vs RedSox … 5/10 @M’s … 5/16 vs Tigers … 5/22 vs Padres … 5/28 @Rangers … 6/6 @Twins … 6/14 @Phils … 6/20 vs WhiteSox … 6/26 @Guardians … 7/2 vs Yankees … 7/8 @WhiteSox.

#6 Yariel Rodriguez: (28-years-old, $5.0M; 8 pre-all-star starts and available for long relief when it fits the schedule). The Cuban righthander was handed a regular starting role last year, as an older rookie, with mixed results. Fatigue seemed a factor. The Jays feel he will be a full-time major-league starter at some point in the future, but with Scherzer entering and with Bassitt’s three-year contract expiring, after ‘25, Y-Rod is in a good spot for some controlled, continued development. The advantage of knowing when, as the sixth guy, he will be making his locked-in eight starts is that he would then be available to Schneider for long relief at other times, as an eighth bullpen arm. Relief stretches include April 20-30; May 9-20; June 13-24 and July 10 to the break.

Projected 8 Y-Rod starts: 4/9 @RedSox… 4/15 vs Braves… 5/4 vs Guardians… 5/25 @Rays… 5/31 vs A’s… 6/8 @Twins… 6/29 @RedSox… 7/5 vs Angels.

Jays’ Projected MLB Bullpen: CL-Jeff Hoffman; Setup-Yimi Garcia, Chad Green, Nick Sandlin, LH’s- Brendon Little, *Ryan Yarbrough. One more reliever and LH Richard Lovelady on Monday was added to the 40-man roster making him the leasding candidate as a third lefthander. Others still in camp are RH Zach Pop, RH Tommy Nance, LH Josh Walker and late signing RH Dillon Tate.