Blue Jays must prioritize bullpen rebuild

Schneider suggests injured, underachieving relievers cost roughly 10 wins

Over the final six media sessions totalling approximately 75 minutes, offered up by Blue Jays manager John Schneider over Fan Depreciation Weekend at Rogers Centre, his most telling comments may have come prior to Saturday’s loss, when he suggested, in response to a direct question, that the number of extra losses, the result of his bullpen’s season-long, especially, post-deadline failure, was “roughly” 10. Think about it. Add 10 wins and the Jays would have had 84, heading into the Marlins series.

With the manager’s estimate of 84 wins that might have been, then competing on the final weekend against a Marlins team with 100 losses, there is no doubt that the outcome could have been different. Consider that the Royals and Tigers each qualified for a wildcard berth with 86 wins, while the starting pitcher-rich M’s ended one game off the pace. How different could the Jays’ final month have been?

“You can point at bullpen costing us games,” Schneider said at his office session on Saturday. “You can point at starting pitching costing us games. I don’t know (about the bullpen). Roughly? Ten? A lot would have (changed) in a weird year.”

This season ended up as the worst Blue Jays record (74-88) since 2019 (67-95). However, looking back those five long years ago, there was more of a feeling of optimism for the future than is being felt by fans today. Back then, Vlad Guerrero Jr. had been called up as the top ranked prospect in baseball. A veteran purge at the ‘19 trade deadline allowed Bo Bichette to step in at shortstop and play every day.

Later in the ‘19 season, at Dodger Stadium, Bo homered in his first two at-bats vs. future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw. Fellow major-league son, Cavan Biggio became another piece to build around and a total of 13 players had double-digit home runs. Let’s compare that to this relief corps in light of Schneider’s “10-loss” estimate.

2024 Bullpen: 23-27, 4.82 ERA, 36 SV, 565.2IP, 228/502 BB/SO, 1.338 WHIP.

2019 Bullpen: 41-27, 4.35 ERA, 33 SV, 729.0IP, 318/737 BB/SO, 1.366 WHIP.

Those numbers show this year’s relievers with 18 fewer wins, yet the same number of losses as 2019, despite the advantage this year’s group was handed from a veteran, reliable, healthy rotation. In ‘19 the pen was asked to pitch 163.1 more innings.

Back to the present, looking at the Jays as a whole, building towards the necessary five-month reload with the goal of being an immediate contender, this group would already have a seven-win head-start over 2019 – 74 to 67 -- and a rotation head-and-shoulders above what the ’19 team offered to MGR Charlie Montoyo, for his debut.

Returning to the rotation for 2025 are: Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez. Meanwhile, the Top 5 starters in 2019 included: RHP Trent Thornton, RHP Aaron Sanchez, RHP Marcus Stroman, RHP Wilmer Font and RHP Jacob Waguespack. That is a strong reason why the ’19 bullpen’s failures were in large part explained by the fact they were overworked.

“There are players here that we hope to see better performance from,” Schneider said, including both position players and pitchers in the assessment. “The (physical) resources are there that we have both here and in Florida (the PDC in Dunedin).

“I think the (‘25) payroll flexibility is a big part of (the optimism), that we are able to go at externally and we are fortunate. That’s a big part of the thought process.”

Specifically, the manager, in citing “payroll flexibility” was referring to the, approximately, $66-million in payroll that will, by some calculations, be available (even after Guerrero’s $26-28M arbitration decision) for the final 18 of 26 players, including those arb-eligible and pre-arb that will form an opening day roster.

The group of young players that populated the post-deadline roster is important that they were able to show what they have to offer. They will all be sub-$1M players in ‘25. Carry seven of those, plus arb guys, plus whatever 3-4 important free agents need to be signed (i.e. co-catcher, two run-producing bats, a stud reliever). That money calculation is merely if they want to match last season’s opening day payroll, which is the indication given by president Mark Shapiro at his last availability.

“It’s no secret, we needed certain guys to perform a little bit better more consistently,” Schenider assessed. “We need guys to perform consistently, all at the same time. I think it’s a combination (for improvement) of the guys that have come up and it’s a combination of guys that have been here that need to keep evolving.”

How important is signing Vlad Guerrero Jr. to a long-term deal?

The Blue Jays need to prioritize negotiations with Vlad Guerrero Jr. for an 8-10 year contract. It must be done and done early in the off-season, if simply for the optics of showing the rest of the baseball world that the Blue Jays are serious about turning the ship around and contending even in the short course of one off-season.

Why Vlad? How do you, otherwise, go about recruiting big-time position players to Toronto, telling them that you are going to contend if the only evidence of direction that they see is of a last-place finish and that Vlad, the team’s best player, coming off an amazing .323, 30 HR, 103 RBI season is entering his final year before free agency with no sign that he will stay. Mixed message. If the Jays do, indeed, plan on signing Vlad, then don’t waste three months haggling during which you could have been using him as recruiter-in-chief to other winning-type players.

“That would probably help,” Schneider agreed, after briefly thinking about the premise. “Yeah, you’re good at this Griff. Yeah, that would definitely help. That happens all the time, but I’m sure it holds a little bit more weight if you have something like that. I think he’s at the point, performance-wise and where he is personality-wise, that he can definitely do that with how he’s recognized around the game, how he’s recognized around the city. I absolutely think that he is talented enough and ready to do that.”

After failing to reach his 200-hit goal for the season on Sunday, for which he can surely be forgiven, Guerrero, who is already over it, was asked about any potential role as a free-agent player recruiter, if he is lucky enough to be offered the security of a long-term deal. Of course, indications remain that those specifics have not even been discussed by the two sides, at this point.

“If it happens, it’s going to be more as advice,” Guerrero said of any recruiting in which he might participate, via interpreter Tito Lebron. “For myself, I’m not going to go out there and start recruiting people, but if the front office called me to check on someone, specific, or they want me to talk to the player, then I will.”

That could all change in an aggressive way, if an agreement was to be reached for the long term. Vlad is already the face of the franchise, but if the Jays ever did allow him to become a free agent and sign elsewhere, then any short-term contender bets are off. There is no replacement “face” in the system on the horizon.

“I want to say that God’s timing is perfect,” Guerrero said of pending negotiations. “So, when that happens, it’s going to happen. Right now, I’m feeling grateful. I’m very happy for the season that I had and I’m going to let my people work on that.”

As Vlad surged down the stretch, powering through the second half and as, at the same time, a new group of young position players joined the team, you could see in the dugout and the clubhouse the newcomers leaning into their superstar for support and advice. The Pied Piper of Blue Jays Way. As much as his statistics, this is his emerging role, even though many approaching him are at the same age or older.

“For me, age doesn’t mean anything,” the Montreal-born, son of a hall-of-famer said. “To tell you the truth one of the biggest bits of advice I received this year was from my (12-year-old) brother. So, anybody coming to me asking for advice or support, regardless of how young they are, or if they’re older than me, I’m there for them.”

As Sunday’s end-of-season media session came to a close, outside the home clubhouse, I pointed to the hallway behind him and reminded Vlad of the April day in 2019, his first in the majors, when he had strolled down the tunnel accompanied by a scuttling camera crew, wearing his dad’s Expos 27 jersey, in acknowledgement of his past, before ducking through the entrance to begin his own story. Given that memory, how much had he changed since that defining moment as a 20-year-old kid?  

“From the sky to the earth,” he said, simply, looking for the right words.

Quite poetic and descriptive and, in fact may end up describing the same distance this Blue Jays ball-club will need to travel in their goal of roster-building over the next five months in order to be considered 2025 contenders.