Blue Jays have resources for rapid rebuild

Biggest problem is the ability to spend the money wisely

In early October, at his annual year-end press briefing, Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro suggested that, no, he did not yet have an approved 2025 payroll from Rogers ownership, but that the dollar total would, likely, be more-or-less the same as a year ago. Let’s trust that Shapiro statement and suggest then that the Jays will have $225.4-million available in ’25 for the 26-man opening day roster.

At this point, very early in the MLB off-season, a week after the World Series, as free agents are declaring and 40-man rosters are being tidied up and pared down by teams in time for the Winter Meetings in December, here is where we believe the Jays stand in terms of the ability to effect a competitive rebuild, using the same payroll money (per Cot’s) as a year ago. Figures here are for the 2025 season only.

Jays Guaranteed ’25 Contracts (7): RF George Springer ($22.5); RH Kevin Gausman ($23.0); RH Chris Bassitt ($21.0); RH Jose Berrios ($18.0); SS Bo Bichette ($16.5); RH Chad Green ($10.5) and RH Yariel Rodriguez ($5.0). In addition, the Jays owe the Pirates $1.7-million for the ’25 contract of Isiah Kiner-Falefa. TOTAL: $118.2M.

Jays Estimates for Arbitration-Eligible (7): 1B Vlad Guerrero ($28.0); CL Jordan Romano ($8.0); CF Daulton Varsho ($7.7); C Alejandro Kirk ($4.1); RH Erik Swanson ($3.2); RH Alek Manoah ($2.4); IF Ernie Clement ($1.7). TOTAL: $55.1M.

What $$ is left over: The Blue Jays guaranteed and arb-eligible estimates total for 2025, as per the two lists above, is 14 players, $173.3-million. That leaves 12 more players for opening day, plus the available amount of $52.1M. Let’s assume Manoah will not be ready for late March. That alters the equation by one more contract.

Roster spots to fill: The remaining 13 roster spots, if all current contracts remain through spring training, breaks down as follows. The Jays will need one (1) starting pitcher; five (5) bullpen arms; one (1) catcher; four (4) everyday position players – let’s say second-base, third-base, DH and left field – plus two (2) more bench players, assuming Ernie Clement will be the No. 1 utility player.

Projected Rotation: Top five, you can pencil in Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Y-Rod and RH Bowden Francis. The breakout star, Francis is pre-arb, under team control and will likely earn around $1M, which may not seem fair but is the way the system works. Clubs can give players what they want for the first three years, then players catch up via arbitration (3 years) and free-agency (after 6 years).

Projected Bullpen: The only three mortal locks for the ’25 Jays ‘pen, based on a combination of contract and performance, are Green, Romano (if healthy) and Swanson.

However, there is also a wading pool of internal, cheap relief help that includes: LH Brendan Little, RH Ryan Burr, RH Michael Petersen, LH Brandon Eisert, LH Easton Lucas, RH Brett deGeus and RH Tommy Nance. The two additional arb-eligible veterans in this returning relief group are RH Zach Pop and RH Dillon Tate. Both may be traded or non-tendered. Most of that holding pool is easily replaced.   

What is painfully obvious, after watching the post-season, is that no five-man internal combination from the existing group of Jays relief pitchers is going to help become competitive in ‘25. The answer to that relief conundrum is that the Jays need to sign two high-leverage relievers, from a free-agent group that is actually crowded with talented 28 to 37-year-old candidates, a useful talent pool that is growing weekly as clubs non-tender and waive their own surplus arms.

Bottom line is the Jays need a top-rung co-closer to pair with Romano, even if Jordan has fully recovered in time for opening day. The need is vital because if the Jays are going to put multiple 7-10 game win streaks together at various points in 2025, it’s proven you need more than one arm to handle the ninth.

That potential list of high-leverage bullpen free-agent help includes LH Tanner Scott, RH Jeff Hoffman, RH Clay Holmes, RH Carlos Estevez, RH Blake Treinen, RH Jose Leclerc, RH Paul Sewald, plus several others. The cost of signing one of those important bullpen arms, then searching for another strong-armed middle reliever with experience would be about $16M. If that’s not possible, there are cheaper options out there. But 2-3 new relievers is vital to any quick rebuild.

Catcher: No matter how good Kirk looked in the final two months, the reality is he needs a co-starting catcher to handle at least 70 games. It was proven there was nobody ready within the system to help, so they will look to a free-agent signing with experience. The top of that free-agent list includes Danny Jansen, Kyle Higashioka, Carson Kelly and Travis d’Arnaud.   

Position Players: Now is the biggest issue., More runs, please. It’s quite possible that two of the Jays’ position players, as outlined above, could be filled internally, if the other two incoming players, via free-agency or trade, are good enough to fill the gaping offensive void. That’s why the final two months of ‘24, with its versatile group of Buffalo Boyz was important to the future. They were not auditioning for starting roles, but all of the available kids (kids in terms of experience) – Spencer Horwitz, Davis Schneider, Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase and Nathan Lukes – could become useful as the 8^th-9^th hitters in the order and, otherwise, make the opening day roster as versatile bench pieces. But the lineup that went out there daily in ’24 clearly needs significant help.

What if the Jays were successful and were able to add to the rebuild, by signing two of four free agent players from among: IF Willy Adames; OF Anthony Santander; OF Teoscar Hernandez; 1B Christian Walker; OF Jurickson Profar; OF Tyler O’Neill; OF Joc Pederson and 1B Paul Goldschmidt?

Then they could add a combination for the other two starting spots, plus two more bench players from among the seven players that got to audition in the second half last year. Could that make a difference? At the start of the final homestand, I asked manager John Schneider how many wins his bullpen had cost the Jays, as it spiralled from bad to worse after the trade deadline. “I would say 10,” he said.

For a 74-win team that mailed it in on the final weekend swept by a 100-loss Marlins squad, that’s a huge admission. So what if the bullpen is repaired, a co-catcher is added, two big bats are brought in and they get a full season of an effective Bowden Francis and a useful Yariel Rodriguez? Can they challenge the mid 80s in wins?

But the first thing I believe that needs to be done is for fans and outside free agents to believe that progress is being made on a long-term extension for Vlad. That would show faith in the window of opportunity staying open.

After that, in the words of Nike, “Just Do it!”