Blue Jays deserve more respect from MLB
Jays’ race to first place more than the sum of the parts
Jays 26-Man Roster Analysis (thru Aug 4):
Blue Jays and the AL East: One lingering misconception from early in the season to this moment, as MLB’s drive to the post-season begins in earnest, is that the American League is not as strong this year as is the NL. Another belief is that the AL East is having a down year, in terms of overall record, and that the east division has never been more winnable for a team that gets hot. Back in April/May, after a slow AL start, each of those statements might have been easily defended, but no more.
The dominant AL East had bottomed out in May, at minus -15 to .500. The East has since rebounded to sit at a combined 22 games above break-even, while, overall, the entire AL in inter-league games, through Aug. 4, is eight games above .500, thus being, statistically, the slightly stronger circuit. The reason it seems like the NL is stronger is that the senior circuit has more Top-8 teams.
Reasons? It should be noted, the four worst teams in the National League are really, really bad and, thus the NL perhaps may have been able to divvy up available wins from the bottom to its more accomplished contenders. The NL’s questionable quartet of bad franchises checks in at a combined 123 below .500, while, conversely, the worst four records in the AL are a more representative -62. That’s a huge disparity towards parity in the leagues. It makes it hard to reasonably argue the Brewers/Dodgers/Cubs/Phillies are so much better than the Jays/Tigers/Astros/Bosox.
As much as I always hate saying this “on pace” thing, the Blue Jays, after pounding the Rockies 15-1 on Monday, are on pace for 94 wins. I hate quoting it because stats like that are akin to a pulled hamstring…at its best, day-to-day. The pace can change in a heartbeat. In any case, attaining even 90 wins over 162 starts is a game of plateaus. The Jays, for example, spent the first two months bouncing back and forth to .500. That was the team’s first plateau. Then they played better for a month and reached a new plateau, 5-8 games above break-even, maintaining that into late June. Now, it’s at a third plateau, reaching as high as 21 above at 63-42 before dropping six of eight, allowing an outrageous, almost alarming 66 runs heading to Colorado.
How should these Jays be judged? If a forever skeptical Jays fanbase, back at spring training, had been offered first place on Aug. 5, by three games, then roll the dice, not one of them would have said no. Enjoy the moment. At some point, if the ’25 Jays, with an improved bullpen, can add another veteran starter in Shane Bieber, and then welcome back key returning-from-injury position players; if they are who they think they are, they will be likely to take a deep breath and put together another positive streak over a 20-game stretch climbing to another plateau.
As for the significance of the much-discussed and still head-scratching Blue Jays season-long run differential (We see you Michael Kay), at 18 games over .500, the differential somehow is just +30. There are explanations. Consider that in terms of Jays blowout games (five or more runs separating teams), the team is 15-18, with opponents owning a +19 differential. It’s natural, then, that for many loyal fans it will always be big losses that stand out. Until they win a division, or a playoff game, doubts will remain…and rightly so. Now, what does the rest of the season portend?
Here is a look at the current Blue Jays roster and a review of expectations.
Starting Pitchers: RH Kevin Gausman; RH Jose Berrios; RH Chris Bassitt; RH Max Scherzer; LH Eric Lauer … (IL RH Shane Bieber; RH Alek Manoah; RH Bowden Francis)
Summary: With the addition of RH Shane Bieber from the Guardians for talented second-year prospect, RH Khal Stephen, the top five Blue Jays starters -- not including 30-year-old LH Eric Lauer – combined in their careers have accumulated four Cy Young awards, 18 Top 10 in Cy voting, 15 all-star games and two Gold Gloves. All of that glitzy history, yet no 2025 all-stars. Does that matter? This group of five will tell you they don’t really worry about individual recognition. It’s about the ring.
At this stage of their careers, RH Gausman, RH Berrios, RH Bassitt, RH Scherzer and RH Bieber, would rather save energy for a run deep into October. This quintet of righthanders averages 34.5-years-of-age and Scherzer is the only one with a title. Lauer, 30, fills out the current rotation and, given his success as a starter, may emerge as a key, long man out of the pen. That is if they don’t go to a 6-man rotation. The debate, if the Jays remain as contenders, becomes how do you align the rotation for the first three games of a playoff rotation? Scherzer has to be included, if healthy.
Reports on Bieber in Buffalo are encouraging. The 2020 Cy winner, with the Guardians, made his first start with the Jays’ organization on Sunday, throwing five innings, allowing two runs for the AAA-Bisons at Buffalo. It was his fifth rehab start building himself up in what is basically his own spring training. This follows 15 months of rehab work coming off April ’24 Tommy John surgery. If his next Bisons start on Saturday, Aug. 9, goes well, he could join the Jays rotation on Aug. 16 in a day game at home vs. the Rangers. He would then be jumping into the rotation, filling the Lauer spot, working a day game at home. The Bieber day game makes the most sense, because it’s a whole different animal preparing for a night games and all of his work during his rehab has been done in the daytime.
Bullpen: CL Jeff Hoffman; RH Yariel Rodriguez; RH Louis Varland; RH Seranthony Dominguez; LH Brendon Little; LH Mason Fluharty; RH Braydon Fisher; RH Tommy Nance … (IL - RH Nick Sandlin; RH Yimi Garcia; Ryan Burr).
Summary: If you are a bad team, you need just one bullpen closer. If you are a contender, you will require multiple relievers to close out games with a lead, because at that point you are counting on it being a nightly occurrence. Early in the ’25 season, the Jays needed just one. It was RH Jeff Hoffman, but they also had RH Yimi Garcia who has the right stuff to close out games but had been just as valuable entering in a jam with runners on base and pitching out of it. But then the Jays got hot, Garcia got hurt, RH Chad Green got old and Erik Swanson got released. October is for bullpens. Thus the Jays at the deadline reached out and added RH Seranthony Dominguez and RH Louis Varland. Neither newcomer is a proven closer, but each has the right stuff.
Objectively, one can disregard the old-school ERA of Hoffman because, the raw numbers will have you scratching your head. Heading to the middle game of the Rockies series, Hoffman appeared in 49 games, with a 4.56 ERA, a concerning number for old-school fans. But consider in his worst six games, he allowed 18 earned-runs in four innings, while in the other 43 appearances, he has allowed six earned runs in 43.1 innings, with a 1.25 ERA and 26 saves. He will remain the closer. The 32-year-old Jays draft pick has been willing to go to four-plus outs when necessary and is a gamer.
No doubt the Jays bullpen needs to be deeper in October in order to go deep and this group clearly has the ability to be a factor in post-season games, with the prospect of late-inning leverage, joining Hoffman, coming from a healthy Garcia, RH Yariel Rodriguez, Dominguez, Varland and LH Brendon Little. The currently injured RH Nick Sandlin or current RH Braydon Fisher can fill the middle-relief role. If the Jays don’t go to a six-man rotation whenever Bieber is finally activated, then the surprising LH Lauer can transition back to the pen as an important long man.
Catchers: Alejandro Kirk; Tyler Heineman.
Summary: The importance of all-star C Alejandro Kirk became obvious when he was out with a concussion, as the Jays went 2-5 and the pitching was pummeled. With Tyler Heineman working the end of the game on Monday, C Ali Sanchez became a luxury and has been designated for assignment. Kirk has 84 starts behind the plate in 114 games, which is 119 over a full season. He has never started more than 89 games in a season as catcher and has surprised observers with his durability. He continues to own the edges of the strike-zone defensively.
Infielders: 1B Vlad Guerrero Jr, 2B Ernie Clement; SS Bo Bichette; UT Addison Barger; IF Ty France IF Buddy Kennedy … (IL 2B Andres Gimenez)
Summary: For seven years, it’s forever been the Bo and Vlad show, since the dynamic duo broke in within three months of one another, during the 2019 season. But while Guerrero Jr. has won the battle to be the “face of the franchise” for the next 15 years, rewarded with a half-billion-dollar contract, Bichette, headed to free-agency, is becoming the face of 2025, leading the majors in base-hits and racking up clutch hitting numbers that Vlad has been frustratingly unable to match.
The imminent return of the platinum-glove 2B Gimenez should be celebrated, but the fan angst comes in because the team has scored plenty of runs in his absence, while nobody seems to notice the subtle downside of the infield defence. His absence allowed more playing time for Clement and Barger, a homegrown future star who has emerged as an offensive force and, clearly is reaching the stage where he needs a place to play. Clement is the ultimate “utility player” starting games at all four infield positions and excelling (except at first base). Luckily Clement won’t have to start any more games at first, with UT France on board. Kennedy is a short-term addition.
Outfielders: CF Daulton Varsho; OF Myles Straw; UT Davis Schneider; OF Nathan Lukes; OF Joey Loperfido … (IL OF George Springer; OF Anthony Santander).
Summary: Varsho’s return to CF will be a slow process. The Gold Glover was hitless in a couple of contests coming off his rehab stint, then on Monday slammed a three-run homer vs. the Rockies to break open the game. With Springer and Anthony Santander still sidelined, there is really no frontline second or third outfielder, in a reliable offensive way. Somehow they get it done. Lukes is a legit major-league fourth outfielder getting too many reps as a starter. Springer after a huge first 30 games, had a worrisome slump in May, but rebounded. His diminishing skills due to wear and tear are a concern over the final two months and Straw was a throw-in, a salary dump by Cleveland as the Jays crossed their fingers and hoped the International Bonus Money they obtained from the Guardians was enough to lure Roki Sasaki to Canada.
IMMEDIATE FUTURE:
The Jays are a better team now than they were on July 25, before the deadline. They will be better again on Aug. 16 with Bieber’s return than they are now. But then they need to be better in October than they were in that same month in 2020-21-22-23. You can’t make changes to the roster and simply declare it so. They must show it on the field and fans should ignore the magic number trap and just enjoy what’s happening.