Blue Jays Control Own Path to First-Round Playoff Bye

Jays are mortal lock for the post-season but covet more than that

If it does turn out that the Blue Jays are forced to compete in a first round series, dropping back to either the worst of the division winners, or among the trio of AL wild-cards, they have nobody to blame but themselves. And that’s all fans can ask.

Despite Sunday’s hand-wringing doom and gloom following the Jays’ two-of-three games weekend loss at Yankee Stadium, the Jays must still be seen as favourites to win the AL East and to finish with one of the Top 2 records. The Jays have 19 games remaining and their magic number to clinch first overall vs. each of the other nine post-season contenders is less than the number of games they have left. Manager John Schneider’s boys are firmly in the driver’s seat. No guarantees, but there is no better position to be in, heading to the final three weeks of the season in baseball’s best division. The AL East is combined 40 games over .500 while the NL Central is +38.

Sunday’s 4-3 defeat in the Bronx to the sign-stealing Yankees was being over-promoted as the most important game of the season by those who benefitted from such hyperbole – mainly the SportsNet folks who were trying to max out the audience on all platforms and others in print and electronic media, many who are under the Rogers umbrella. They were swept up in the importance of a Mad Max matchup – Scherzer vs. Fried. But the truth is there have been others this year with more import.

Consider 1-May 28 at Texas. Tied 0-0 in the top of the ninth, Bo Bichette pinch-hits and drives a two-run homer off Jacob Webb. Instead of dropping three games under .500, they raised the record to 27-28 and took off from there.

Consider 2-Aug. 10 at Dodger Stadium. Needing to win to avoid a sweep, against a team considered, at the time, far their superior, Mason Fluharty struck out Shohei Ohtani and had Mookie Betts bounce out in the ninth to end the 5-4 win.

Consider 3-Aug. 31 vs. the Brewers. Needing to avoid a sweep at home vs. a team with the best record in MLB and seen as a reflection of themselves and with the Yankees and Red Sox lurking, Vlad Guerrero Jr. snapped a 4-4 tie in the fourth inning, then the Jays added three more and hung on for an 8-4 win. All three of those games were imbued with far more genuine urgency than Sunday in the Bronx.

For the season, the Jays had already locked up the tie-breaker vs. the Yankees and they arrived in New York with a three-game lead in the AL East. The Jays already clinched the season-series, so the Bombers needed to beat the Jays by a game in the final standings to be division champs. Basically, the Jays, with the calendar winding down, merely needed to avoid a sweep to avoid disaster. With Kevin Gausman asserting himself on Friday, in Game 1, as once-and-future ace of this deep Jays’ starting staff, the main drama of the weekend was avoided early. But late-season tension is delicious.

Analysis of Jays quest to win AL East

Let’s, for argument’s sake, set a final goal of 92 wins, modest in most seasons, but, seemingly, a realistic bar, in ’25, for 10 remaining AL contenders with a chance at a wild-card or division title.

To reach 92 wins, here are what each contender needs to do:

Blue Jays: 10-9 … 16G vs. other T10 … Astros (3), O’s (3), Rays (4), Royals (3), Rays (3).

Tigers: 10-8 … 12G vs. other T10 … Yanks (3), Marlins (3), Guardians (3), Braves (3), Sox (3).

Astros: 14-4 … 9G vs. other T10 … Jays (3), Braves (3), Texas (3), M’s (3), A’s (3), Angels (3).

Yankees: 12-7 … 6G vs. other T10 … Tigers (3), Sox (3), Twins (3), O’s (4), Chisox (3), O’s (3).

Red Sox: 13-5 … 12G vs. other T10 … A’s (3), Yanks (3), A’s (3), Rays (3), Jays (3), Tigers (3).

M’s: 17-2 … 6G vs. other T10 … Cards (3), Angels (4), Royals (3), Astros (3), Rox (3), LAD (3).

Guardians: 20-0 … 13G vs. other T10 … Royals (4), Chisox (3), Tigers (3), Twins (4), Tigers (3), Rangers (3).

Royals: 19-0 … 10G vs. other T10 … Cleve (4), Phils (3), M’s (3), Jays (3), Angels (3), A’s (3).

Rangers: 18-0…6G vs. other T10…Brewers (3), Mets (3), Astros (3), Marlins (3), Twins (3), Guardians (3).

Rays: Can only reach maximum 90W … 10G vs. other T10 … Chisox (3), Cubs (3), Jays (4), Red Sox (3), O’s (3), Jays (3).

NOTES: Among the seven AL teams chasing the three division leaders (Jays, Tigers, Astros), there are 16 losses that remain to be shared from among the intramural games of the also-rans. That basically makes the Jays playoff bid 100% realistic barring total collapse, meaning the East Division crown and a wild-card bye must be the remaining goals. In the division, the Sox and Yankees play three games, in which Jays fans are hoping Boston can win at least two of three. The Yankees, once they get by the Tigers and Bosox are left with a softball 13 games against teams that are playing for pride. The Jays know how much a first-round bye means. They have lost four straight post-season series, three of them in the wild-card round. But the Jays now are in control their own destiny and that’s all they can ask.