On Tuesday night in a 5-3 loss to the streaking Royals, the Blue Jays began what many of their fans and a rash of media experts excitedly point to as a “soft schedule” for the final 30 games, playing zero teams that had a winning record. The Jays for the past three weeks had competed hard for 17 games against playoff bound teams ahead of them in the standings, emerging with an 11-7 mark and real hope for a wildcard.
But in Game 1 of the series vs. Kansas City, the Jays stumbled and fell in their return to Rogers Centre, playing sloppy ball, defensively, running the bases poorly and pitching with not enough command and control.
It gets tougher. The Jays have a bullpen game to be started by Spencer Miles on Wednesday, with a smattering of Chad Dallas and perhaps Simeon Woods-Richardson, then trot out Spencer Arrighetti vs. the Royals in the series finale. This season and schedule was supposed to be getting easier for the Jays.
“It’s been ‘go-time’ for a while, but by no means do you say, okay, now’s the time where you make up ground,” manager John Schneider said of the perception the schedule was in his favour. “They’ve been playing really well. They always play us really well. They’ve just been having a weird year. But you can’t rely on (turning things around by) who you’re playing.
“We just came out of a really tough stretch playing really good teams that are above .500. I believe we were 11-6 over those 17. We’re just worrying about us and not about who we’re playing. It’s major-league baseball. Everyone’s good. To me it’s not a light part of the schedule. Everyone’s in the race. We’re one of those teams under .500.”
Game 1 of the Royals series ended ignominiously on an ill-advised decision by the usually wise Nathan Lukes, trying to stretch a single into a double and being tagged out, even though his run, should he have scored, was not a difference maker.
Earlier in the game, Vlad fielded a bunt and made a terrible side-armed throw into the path of the baserunner hustling down the line. The ball sailed past Ernie Clement who was covering but unwilling to reach into the baserunner’s path. To add injury to insult, Clement in the eighth, fouled a ball off his own crotch, writhing in the dirt around home plate finally able to continue after his gonads descended back to their rightful place akin to that Times Square apple on New Year’s Eve.
By the way, did we say the Royals have won nine in a row and are playing loose.
“Any team is dangerous,” Schneider opined. “There’s some freedom to that, probably. There’s some urgency to that, probably. We’re kind of in the same category where it’s like, hey, you’ve got to do what you’ve got to do to win every night. (The Royals) have got a pretty talented roster, but I think you’ve got to worry about yourself ahead of everything.”
And, you can see it. The Jays have plenty of reason to worry. There’s the thin starting pitching. Overworked relievers to the point of their leverage guys already reaching career numbers in innings and appearances, defensively we’ve seen more bad routes than given you by the GPS you bought on Temu and, oh yeah, there’s that all-too familiar pox the Jays often have with runners in scoring position.
“It’s like when a guy’s playing 14-15-16 days in a row, they’re going to get a little bit tired,” Schneider said. “Starters need to do their part. There are times when you push starters a little bit more than you want to, because of the workload.
“you don’t want to say that you forgive (the relievers for any failures) but you’re definitely aware that mistakes are going to happen because of the workload, probably a little bit more than if they were fully rested. Some guys are good when they’re pitching more, without a long layoff, but we’ve definitely pushed that envelope as to where they’re not getting that much of a layoff. Starters need to do their part. We know that.”
The Blue Jays talent and sometimes lack of it are visible on a nightly basis. This is not the World Series team of 2025. They are simply one of eight teams competing for the third and final AL wildcard berth. There remains no mystique left over from their exciting World Series run a year ago. Opponents see this team far differently from the one that MGR John Schneider guided to within one out of a title against the Dodgers.
They were buyers/sellers on Aug. 3, thinking they could still compete in ’26, but the loss of Trey Yesavage immediately after that trade deadline, then the loss of Shane Bieber throwing his bullpen on Sunday (teres major inflammation), the trade of Kevin Gausman at the deadline, the dispatch of former closer Jeff Hoffman to the Twins and the off-season departure of Chris Bassitt to the Orioles has changed the pitching outlook.
As far as changes in the offence from the excitement last October, you can begin and end with Vlad Guerrero Jr. and the difference from his dominating playoff performance a year ago and his punchless presence this year, still with no homers at Rogers Centre in ’26.
The Jays are still alive, but they cannot afford many more games like they played on Tuesday if they want to remain in the hunt for a spot on the October dance floor. Following is a summary of the seven wildcard contenders and my ranking of their chances.
Ranking AL contenders for 3rd Wild Card (games through Aug. 25)
1 – Guardians 67-66, 45.6% post-season
Rotation: RH Gavin Williams, LH Parker Messick, LH Foster Griffin, RH Tanner Bibee.
Bullpen: RH Cade Smith, RH Hunter Gaddis; LH Erik Sabrowski.
Manager: Stephen Vogt
Schedule (28): @Angels 1, Royals 3, Blue Jays 3, Tigers 3, @Orioles 3, @Twins 3, White Sox 3, A’s 3, @Red Sox 3, @Royals 3.
To Dance in October: The Guardians have a two-time AL Manager-of-the-Year, so they will know how to handle any pressure down the stretch. They have a top three rotation that sets up well for any short series, with built-in off-days and the bullpen with Smith as the closer is reliable and deep. Guardians are 8-2 in the past 10 games and are chasing the White Sox to win the division, as well as being favourites for that third wildcard.
2 – Mariners 64-69, 22.0% post-season
Rotation: RH Logan Gilbert, RH George Kirby, RH Bryan Woo, LH Kade Anderson.
Bullpen: RH Andres Munoz, LH Jose Ferrer, RH Eduard Bazardo.
Manager: Dan Wilson
Schedule (29): Phillies 1, @Blue Jays 3, @Red Sox 3, A’s 4, Rangers 3, @A’s 3, @Angels 3, @Rockies 3, Astros 2, Angels 4.
To Dance in October: The M’s are energized by C Cal Raleigh and he seems to be turning his season around. His 18 home runs, including three in a game vs. the Phils and another on Tuesday, are good signs. Their final 22 games include 7 A’s, 7 Angels and 3 Rockies. The M’s called up Kade Anderson, the top ranked pitching prospect on MLB Pipeline. They are 8-4 in the last 12 and are could even factor into the AL West race with Astros and Rangers.
3a – Rangers 66-67, 42.2% post-season
Rotation: RH Jacob deGrom, LH MacKenzie Gore, LH Cody Bradford, RH Cal Quantrill.
Bullpen: LH Jacob Latz, RH Jakob Junis, RH Chase Silseth.
Manager: Skip Schumaker.
Schedule (29): @White Sox 1, @Brewers 3, A’s 3, Rays 4, @Mariners 3, @Diamondbacks 3, Red Sox 3, Blue Jays 3, Mets 3, @Twins 3.
To Dance in October: The Rangers have long been included among the seven teams in the wildcard hunt for the final spot but now find themselves with an alternate route to the post-season, battling the Astros for the seemingly unwanted AL West crown. That explains their high Statcast percentage for making the playoffs. Both teams need to be wary of the M’s.
3b – Astros, 66-66, 46.0% post-season
Rotation: RH Hunter Brown, RH Cristian Javier, RH Peter Lambert, RH Hayden Wesneski.
Bullpen: LH Josh Hader, LH Steven Okert, RH Bryan Abreu.
Manager: Joe Espada.
Schedule (30): @Yankees 2, @Mets 3, White Sox 4, Diamondbacks 3, @Phillies 3, @Rays 3, Royals 3, Braves 3, @Mariners 2, @A’s 4.
To Dance in October: The Astros are in this wacky wildcard mix because of injuries and a slumping team that led to a sudden parting of ways with GM Dana Brown. The Astros began the year slowly, then went on a run that may, in fact, have peaked too early, streaking at 11-1 into Aug. Since then, they are 8-11 and may be more likely for the wild-card.
4 – Orioles 64-68, 8.8% post-season
Rotation: LH Trevor Rogers, RH Brandon Young, RH Shane Baz, RH Chris Bassitt.
Bullpen: RH Andrew Kittredge, RH Rico Garcia, RH Yennier Cano.
Manager: Craig Albernaz
Schedule (30): @Cardinals 2, @A’s 3, @Rockies 3, Red Sox 4, Guardians 3, @Blue Jays 3, @Mets 3, Brewers 3, Blue Jays 3, @Yankees 3.
To Dance in October: The O’s face a remaining schedule with 17 road games and just 13 at home. If they do, they are going to make the post-season on the shoulders of an offence that lost C Adley Rutschman at the trade deadline but now has 1B Pete Alonso and SS Gunnar Henderson in high gear. O’s are 22-17 since July 9 in the toughest, deepest division in MLB, with 13 remaining inside the AL East. Their inexperienced manager is a handicap.
5 – Twins 64-69, 12.7% post-season
Rotation: RH Taj Bradley, LH Connor Prielipp, RH Bailey Ober, RH Zebby Matthews.
Bullpen: RH Yoendrys Gomez, RH Jeff Hoffman, RH Andrew Morris.
Manager: Derek Shelton
Schedule (29): @A’s 1, White Sox 3, Tigers 3, @White Sox 3, @Tigers 3, Guardians 3, Yankees 3, @Angels 4, @Giants 3, Rangers 3.
To Dance in October: The Twins have been plodding along in a very winnable AL Central race, but are 32-29 since June 13, gaining just 1 game on the White Sox in 75 days. However, a key stretch is arriving shortly when the Twins face two huge division rivals, the Chisox and Tigers for 12 straight games between Aug. 28 and Sept. 9.
6 - Blue Jays 64-69, 25.2% post-season
Rotation: RH Dylan Cease, RH Jose Soriano, RH Max Scherzer, RH Spencer Arrighetti.
Bullpen: RH Louis Varland, RH Tyler Rogers, RH Braydon Fisher.
Manager: John Schneider
Schedule (29): Royals 2, Mariners 3, @Guardians 3, @Royals 3, @A’s 3, Orioles 3, Tigers 3, @Rangers 3, @Orioles 3, Reds 3.
To Dance in October: That is a tough task for a team that just lost a resurgent Shane Bieber and is still getting nothing from team leader 1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. The Jays are counting on the return of Arrighetti and RH Jameson Taillon to fill out the rotation. The bullpen is loaded with high leverage guys that are reaching career highs in innings and appearances. Fumes.
7 – Tigers 62-70, 6.2% post-season
Rotation: LH Framber Valdez, RH Keider Montero, RH Casey Mize, RH Jackson Jobe.
Bullpen: RH Kenley Jansen, LH Tyler Holten, RH Kyle Finnegan.
Manager: A.J. Hinch
Schedule (29): Rays 1, Dodgers 3, @Twins 3, @Guardians 3, Twins 3, Rockies 3, @Blue Jays 3, @White Sox 4, Nationals 3, Pirates 3.
To Dance in October: The Tigers went on a mirage run after trading ace LH Tarik Skubal. It brought back memories of two years ago when they were sellers at the deadline and made an unlikely run to the playoffs. Not this time, even though they aren’t mathematically eliminated yet. The Tigers on Aug. 11 were a game under .500, climbing to within 2.5 of the White Sox. Since then, they are 3-10 and welcome Skubal and his Dodgers this weekend.