Blue Jays candidates for bench roles, versatile, redundant and hard to handicap

Bench forged positive vibes in Jays 15-game stretch vs. sub-.500 teams

It’s less than a week into exhibition games in Florida and Arizona and one aspect of the “get-ready” process that the Blue Jays don’t seem overly concerned about is what will be the final makeup of their four-man bench — three after you account for two catchers, Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk.

There are certainly enough candidates in camp to fill the three remaining roster spots, all with similar versatility and past credentials. In fact, manager John Schneider’s final solution to the composition of position-player reserves will be one of the more interesting angles to follow throughout camp.

Second-base and third-base don’t yet have full-time starters to replace Whit Merrifield and Matt Chapman, players who can be counted on for more than 81 starting assignments – half the games. They need someone to step up in at least one of those openings. In fact, among current Jays, the most returning starts at either of those infield positions are Cavan Biggio with 49 starts last year at second-base and Santiago Espinal with 26 at third-base.   

In addition, there is no leading candidate to be a fourth outfielder. So, why, then, are the Jays looking unconcerned about the identities of the three players that will be coming off the bench in mix-and-match fashion, in the infield, or left field against tough lefthanded starters when either Kevin Kiermaier or Daulton Varsho sits?

Going over names, the mortal locks for nine of 13 position player spots include: C Jansen/Kirk; 1B Vlad Guerrero Jr; SS Bo Bichette; LF Varsho; CF Kiermaier; RF George Springer; DH Justin Turner. Free agent Isiah Kiner Falefa is an important piece. He was signed to a two-year, $15-million, contract, so he’s got to be there. His role has yet to be determined. No other reserve is guaranteed anything.  

Competing for three remaining four spots are 11 players. They include Cavan Biggio ($4.2M) and Santiago Espinal ($2.7M), each of them inked to one-year deals. Then there are four more roster players earning less than $1M -- Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, Spencer Horwitz and Nathan Lukes. Add three 40-man roster prospects who have yet to reach the majors -- Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger and Leo Jimenez, plus veteran invitees Daniel Vogelbach and Eduardo Escobar. Tough calls.

Biggio and Espinal, if they remain on board, are both useful on a major-league bench, unless one or both are traded in March. Trades for either man would likely only be to save dollars in total payroll. The return would be in the form of prospects.

Martinez, Barger and Jimenez are all in ML camp for the experience (and to be sent on the longer spring bus rides) and will be sent down at some point in mid-March. Meanwhile, the two non-roster veterans, Vogelbach and Escobar, would need extraordinary sequences of events for either to still be around on opening day.

That leaves, as the crowded clubhouse currently is comprised, a potential bench gang of four in any combination in whom fans and front office seem to have great faith and a strong sense of optimism. It’s likely to come down to four players – Schneider, Clement, Horwitz and Lukes -- for the final two spots.

How do you separate them. Fear the Grapefruit. Don’t look to the exhibition game stat sheets for clues. Spring numbers will have very little to do with who heads north. Back at the turn of the century and even earlier, an accepted belief in major-league front offices was that the worst two places to evaluate young players for major-league readiness were spring training and the month of September.

Spring training because of the way managers utilize their veteran players in exhibition games, with young hitters and young pitchers usually ending games in later innings facing the same players that they faced in the minor leagues the previous summer. What can you learn from that?

Caveat emptor September. Also, a rule back in the days when there were no wild-card teams in the current expanded playoffs and with no Arizona Fall League was simple. Most organizations, that had fallen out of the hunt for late October, took advantage of the 40-man roster and brought up as many of their top prospects as possible -- and used them. With nothing to compete for, they ran the kids out in meaningless regular season games to see if they might be able to help the next year. Once again, the problem was that it became their Triple-A guys facing their opponent’s Triple-A guys and any great numbers produced had to be taken with a grain of salt.   

But, now, with 10 MLB teams, out of 30, qualifying for the playoffs, any team at or above .500 on Sept. 1 (usually 15-16) feels like it has a chance and continues to play the regulars in September hoping for the best.

It wasn’t quite like the old days, but recall in 2023, the Blue Jays had a 15-game stretch of nostalgia, a throwback window of 17 days against bad teams from August 25-Sept. 10. Not quite a full month of statistical mirage but enough to distort reality.

The Jays, at the time, desperately needed a boost to get back into a playoff race and were presented with a gift stretch of games against losing teams – Guardians (3), Nationals (3), Rockies (3), A’s (3) and Royals (3). The Jays responded and went on an important 10-5 stretch, surprisingly being led by a group of Triple-A call-ups, including Schneider, Horwitz and Clement, with solid contributions from a resurgent Espinal and Kirk, in the absence of injured Jansen. Back to the present, it seems there are five players in a tussle for three spots. It shouldn’t be decided on stats.

The following box separates the five players that took the spotlight last Aug. 25-Sept. 10 and compares their excellent offensive numbers in those 15 games against weaker teams, comparing them, to what they produced the rest of their 2023 season.            

Davis Schneider          AVG.    OPS.    H/AB   2B    3B     HR       RBI      BB      

Aug. 25-Sept. 10         .372     1.418   16/43  8      1          4          13        14

Remainder of ’23        .219     .751     16/73  4      0          4          7          7

Santiago Espinal         AVG.    OPS.    H/AB   2B     3B     HR       RBI      BB      

Aug. 25-Sept. 10         .367     .842     11/30  3       0         0          7          1

Remainder of ’23        .230     .615     46/200 11      0         2         18        17

Spencer Horwitz         AVG.    OPS.    H/AB   2B     3B      HR       RBI      BB      

Aug. 25-Sept. 10         .313     .951     5/16    1        0        1          3          1

Remainder of ’23        .217     .569     5/23    1        0        0          4          3

Ernie Clement             AVG.    OPS.    H/AB   2B        3B    HR      RBI      BB      

Aug. 25-Sept. 10         .351     .838     13/37  0        1          1          7          0

Remainder of ’23        .462     1.038   6/13    1        0          0          3          1

Alejandro Kirk             AVG.    OPS.    H/AB   2B      3B      HR      RBI     BB      

Aug. 25-Sept. 10         .343     .985     12/35  7        0          0          6          7

Remainder of ’23        .240     .661     81/337 9        0          8         37       35

Let’s look at the candidates. Ignoring 2023 numbers and performances that will take place at spring training over the next 26 days, here is a breakdown of what each of the seven leading candidates for the new horsehide bench mob brings to the table.

Cavan Biggio: The soon-to-be-29-year-old lefthanded hitter has comfortably morphed into the ultimate MLB utility player. Cavan takes reps at second-base, third base, right field and first base and has made himself into a decent defender at all. If needed, he could make most starts at second base against righthanders and fill in for Guerrero Jr. and Springer when they are nicked up or need a day off of their feet as DH. The only reason Cavan would be considered a trade candidate would be if they end up adding someone else, then need to save money on payroll.   

Santiago Espinal: The 29-year-old is another trade candidate if the Jays feel they need a reduction in payroll, moving on to Clement and Schneider as key players off the bench. His importance in ‘23 with that bench group was because of his ability to play shortstop, but newcomer Kiner-Falefa has been an everyday shortstop for both the Rangers and the Yankees. Espinal’s offence suffered in 2023 before a surge at the end of the year and there are other teams that like what he provides.

Davis Schneider: Schneider’s ideal role seems to be as a direct replacement for the departed Merrifield. But Schneider’s defence at second base and in left, not to mention at third, are far from elite and his offensive splits between the glitzy 15-games vs. bad teams and the rest of his brief season are steep, even when you include the spectacular debut he had at Fenway. There would seem to be too much of a Jays urgency to win now to open the season with Schneider in a key role given many other certainties in camp. He has a future in the majors, but that future is not now.

Spencer Horwitz: The 26-year-old lefthanded hitter is primarily a 1B/DH, but has also played left field and second base in the minors. He would likely not be required to play 2B or OF if he made the opening day roster. Horwitz is ahead of Daniel Vogelbach for any role, but the fact that he still has two minor-league options and needs regular at-bats leaves him as an insurance policy for later.  

Ernie Clement: The 28-year-old righthanded hitter has zero minor-league options left, which gives him an inside edge to at least break camp with the big club, all other things being equal. The Rochester (NY) native has been a primary shortstop in the minor leagues, but has also played third-base, second and left field in the majors. The versatility of all of these players is what “all things being equal” translates to. His ’23 numbers at both Buffalo and the Jays may give him an edge to start the year.   

Nathan Lukes: Strictly an outfielder, the lefthanded hitting 29-year-old has managed just 31 major-league plate appearances in nine pro seasons. He still has options and is an asset to be kept in reserve at Triple-A. He is useful, but the current OF depth chart for the Jays shows: LF-Varsho, Kiner-Falefa, Schneider, Lukes; CF-Kiermaier, Varsho, Kiner-Falefa, Lukes; RF-Springer, Biggio, Lukes. He needs at-bats and has options.

Eduardo Escobar: The 35-year-old former all-star was a late invite to camp, signed, one suspects, as an insurance policy, not as a roll of the dice. The switch-hitter had his best season five years ago in 2019 with the D’backs, 35 homers, 118 RBIs and an .831 OPS. Since then, in four seasons, with four organizations, he has not come close to duplicating that one-time performance in the desert. As a non-roster player, with aging, redundant skills, there would have to be more than one injury for him to break camp with the major-league Jays. Escobar is a rare player who has competed at all nine positions including catcher and pitcher.