Blue Jays Batting Order needs help

Time to tweak top of the order once again

The Blue Jays mock-celebrated when their struggling offence finally scored a first-inning run in Oakland after 30 games, asking for the ball with which Danny Jansen hit a sacrifice fly to score Spencer Horwitz, making his first start after a recall from AAA-Buffalo. The team ended a near MLB-record streak without scoring in their first trip to the plate of all games. But, the fact and reality is there’s nothing funny about the Jays’ top-of-the-order, season-long scoring woes. It was embarrassing.

The problem is that the Jays’ table-setters, hitting first and second in the lineup, have neglected to put any silverware on the table for the big boys behind them to eat with and by the time the food arrives, it’s served cold. It’s time for more lineup changes.

Over the first 66 games, heading into Tuesday’s middle game at Milwaukee, the Blue Jays leadoff hitters, batting first, numbers combined, have produced just 53 hits, with a .197 average and an OPS of .581. There have been two primary top-of-the-order players, George Springer for 38 games and Davis Schneider for 24.

Over the same 66 games, the Blue Jays two-hole hitters, combined, have 53 hits, with a .205 average and an OPS of .649. The three primary second-place hitters have been Vlad Guerrero Jr, 35 times, plus Danny Jansen and Daulton Varsho 13 times each.

Manager John Schneider admits that every game now feels like back-to-the-wall and every series feels like the most important series of the year. That being said, with the futility of the top of the order staring him in the face, why hesitate about trying something new and riding at least tepid hands (there are no hot hands available)?

Suggested Jays lineup changes vs. RH starters     

1-Spencer Horwitz; 2-Isiah Kiner-Falefa; 3-Vlad Guerrero Jr; 4-Bo Bichette; 5- Daulton Varsho; 6-George Springer; 7-Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk; 8-Justin Turner/Daniel Vogelbach; 9-Davis Schneider/Kevin Kiermaier.

Given the above proposed lineup, of course, there could be some slight lineup changes whenever a lefthanded starter is on the mound, but the specific order of hitters, listed above, in each of those lineup spots, should be considered, given the consistent failure to launch of the Jays’ overall offence, with 96 games remaining.

#1-Horwitz has earned a full chance to bat leadoff and play against most RH/LH pitchers, at either first or second-base. Bottom line is he had nothing left to prove as a hitter in the minor-leagues. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily translate into success at the next level, but consider the 26-year old’s OPS from 2022-24, has risen in each of those three seasons, at .843 with stops at AA-New Hampshire and Buffalo in 2022, then .945 and .970 with the Bisons in 2023-24. As important, over the two seasons, he has walked 122 times and struck out 113 times, working with robo-umps and bringing that acquired knowledge of the true strike zone with him to the majors.     

#2-IKF batting near the bottom of the order has demonstrated a truly professional approach to battling through his at-bats, culminating in the extra-inning, bases-loaded double in Oakland vs. the largely awful RH Austin Adams. Move Kiner-Falefa to the two-hole and have him in the lineup every day, either at second or third base. He sees pitches and give professional at-bats. In 80 career games batting second, IKF has 96 hits and 20 bases-on-balls, with a .311 average and a .363 on-base.  

#3 Guerrero Jr. is an obvious choice to remain in the three-hole, either playing first or third base every day. He has just 30 RBIs, but with more traffic on base ahead of him in a revamped lineup, who else do you want looming in late innings with men on base and needing a run?

#4 Bichette in the first third of the season, often seemed unenthusiastic and disengaged when coming to the plate. Maybe it’s the way the team has been playing. Maybe it’s the way he has been hitting. Watch closely when he gets to two strikes in any at-bat. At one time he was famous for his clearly visible two-strike adjustment, toe down, heel up, but he now seems to be staying with the less controlled higher leg kick. But the track record is there and the hits and more success will come.

#5 Varsho and #6 Springer could be flipped when facing a lefthanded starter. Having the lefthanded hitting Varsho separated from the other lefty swingers makes opposing managers think twice about when to bring in a lefty relief specialist, having, as is the rule, to face a minimum three hitters, two of which will then be righthanded. The Springer move out of the leadoff role to which had been accustomed for years, dating back to Houston, has produced a more productive Springer. Don’t mess with this.

#7 Jansen and Kirk, the catchers can easily occupy this spot, no matter who is pitching or who is behind the dish. Jansen was an interim solution, earlier, batting second for a short while (13 games), but, especially on the road, when your stock in trade is as a defensive-first catcher, a problem becomes the ability to focus on your starting pitcher before he heads to the hill for the first time. That seems more important than grabbing a bat after the anthem and heading to the on-deck circle.  

#8 Turner and Vogelbach have proven that they are strictly DH material and should not be handed a position, except occasionally for Turner. But the popular logic that Vlad was experimenting at third-base so that the manager could sometimes get both DH bats in the lineup at the same time seems flawed (hopefully) in that it begged the question “WHY?” Having the DH in the eight-hole stretches out the run-producing part of the Jays batting order. DH is where they should stay.

#9 Schneider and Kiermaier can be useful turning the order over. It seems with Horwitz now promoted and playing in the infield, that Schneider will likely become the primary left fielder, with Varsho moving to centre on most days. Dropping Schneider from one to nine, he would really only be missing one plate appearance per game, bringing his potential thunder and seeing more pitches at the bottom of the order. When Kiermaier signed prior to the ’23 season, the thinking was he would be a great fourth outfielder, with the occasional start and much late-inning defence. It took a while, but that may be where they have arrived in terms of KK usage.

Other Days off for starters. The versatility of the Blue Jays 12-position players (minus Vogelbach), allows for days off for the regulars leaving solid major-league options to replace them, in terms of the baseball version of load management, or in cases of the inevitable nicks and scratches over 162 games. Not huge drop-offs in talent.

If Guerrero Jr. at first-base needs a day, they have Horwitz, or Turner. At second base, they share with Horwitz, IKF and Schneider. At third, they have IKF, Ernie Clement and Vlad. Shortstop if they need to give Bo a day of rest is IKF, with Clement in a pinch. Left field and centre field has its basic three-man triangle of talent, with Schneider, Varsho and Kiermaier. When Springer is out, Varsho moves to right field where he has played one time as a Jay, but had plenty of reps in Arizona.  

In the words of David Bowie, in Changes: “A million dead-end streets and every time I thought I’d got it made, it seemed the taste was not so sweet. Ch-ch-changes, just gonna have to be a different man.” (and a different lineup).