Blue Jays Bad Luck Streak in Drafting School

Winter Meetings Draft Lottery drops Jays to 8th pick overall

It happened last week, the afternoon of the second day of the Dallas winter meetings, Tuesday, Dec. 10. Regarding the Blue Jays, their off-season bad news had begun two days earlier on Sunday night, with the revelation that much coveted free-agent, Juan Soto, had agreed to terms with the Mets on a record 15-year, $765-million contract. It marked the second straight frustrating off-season, in which the Jays had been left as also-rans in the most desirable free-agent sweepstakes. Last year, it was the Jays being left up in the air with their hopes for Shohei Ohtani, since, as it turned out, he was not up in the air. The ‘24 MVP then went on to a 50/50 HR/SB season for the Dodgers.

The Jays were certainly hoping for a change of misfortunes, as all 30 teams were gathered for the draft lottery at the Texas headquarters hotel, for the second year of the new anti-tanking procedure. The Jays began with the fifth-best percentage for winning the No. 1 pick in this summer’s process, but instead, Toronto dropped to eighth overall, with the Washington Nationals, L.A. Angels and Seattle Mariners copping the top three spots. Not an auspicious start for their ’25 campaign.

How bad is it between first overall and No. 8? Following is a 60-year history of success for all teams that drafted eighth overall in the first round, the spot to which the Jays dropped. That will be followed by a similar, second study outlining the “what if” they had simply remained at No. 5, as pre-lottery odds suggested.

The First-Year Player Draft began in ’65 as an attempt at equalizing and controlling the fair distribution of amateur talent. The first draft was held behind closed doors with little information leaking out for fans and media until the players had signed. Outfielder Rick Monday (Arizona St.) was the first player selected. It was by the Cubs.

There have been 60 drafts but, unlike the NFL, NHL or NBA, first round picks are not sure-things, not guaranteed any MLB success, or even to make it to The Show. In fact, for decades, it always seemed like the baseball draft was like rolling the dice? Now there are analytics, computer-generated ways to compare different levels and ages and regions, coast-to-coast, and all teams have access to similar bodies of information, separated only by the skills and intuition of each team’s own amateur scouting.

With all of the U.S.A., Canada and Puerto Rico supplying talent and with ages ranging from 17 to 22, with high-school seniors, college juniors, Junior College prospects, a talent pool from NCAA Division 1, 2, NAIA, with young men’s bodies still developing and given various tiers of coaching, plus many other dice-rolling factors, it’s always been a crapshoot, with the hope our crap turns out better than yours.

We looked at history. As regular readers of Griff’s the Pitch and listeners of Exit Philosophy are aware, I am not the biggest fan of the statistic called WAR. That being said, I will be using that as the separator for this study of previous amateur drafts, overall Nos. 5 and 8, and what that history portends for the Jays.

Players Drafted No. 8 Overall: This is the spot in which the Jays will be picking. The early, MLB Pipeline prediction for that eighth pick in the ‘25 draft, includes an 18-year-old, lefthanded-hitting, high school third-baseman from Washington, Xavier Neyens (6-4, 200 lbs.) and 17-year-old lefty-swinging high school LHP/1B Kruz Schoolcraft from Oregon (6-8, 229 lbs). But, much can change.

Historically, there has been just 24 of 60 No. 8 selections that have posted a career “plus” WAR, overall. That’s just 40-percent that have had a decidedly positive impact, start to finish. Not a lot. Following are the Top 10 all-time draft WAR, by No. 8 picks.

1-1B Todd Helton 61.8 WAR, Rockies ’95 … 2-SS Francisco Lindor 49.6 WAR, Indians ’11 … 3-IF Jay Bell 37.1 WAR, Twins ’84 … 4-SP Jim Abbott 19.6 WAR, Angels ’88 … 5-RH Dick Ruthven 18.4 WAR, Twins ’72 … 6-RH Kyle Freeland 18.0 WAR, Rockies ’14 … 7-RH Mike Leake 16.2 WAR, Reds ’09 … 8-OF Gary Roenicke 15.4 WAR, Expos ’73 … 9-RH Joey Hamilton 14.3 WAR, Padres ’91 … 10-LH Steve Trout 13.3 WAR, White Sox ’76.

Players drafted No. 5 Overall: It may seem simply a matter of logic, but the 5-hole of the draft has produced 10 players with a career WAR above 18.0 and more of those players on this list have been franchise-changing. Among the Top 10 five-hole picks.

1-RH Doc Gooden 53.0 WAR, Mets ’82 … 2-1B Mark Teixeira 50.6 WAR, Rangers ’01 … 3-OF Ryan Braun 47.1 WAR, Brewers ’05 … 4-C/OF Dale Murphy 46.5 WAR, Braves ’74 … 5-OF JD Drew 44.9 WAR, Cardinals ’98 … 6-C Buster Posey 44.8 WAR, Giants ’08 … 7-RH Jack McDowell 27.8 WAR, White Sox ’87 … 8-OF Vernon Wells 28.6 WAR, Blue Jays ’97 … 9-OF Kyle Tucker 23.0 WAR, Astros ’15 … 10-C Matt Wieters 18.3 WAR, Orioles ’07.

The individual recognition in terms of awards for this impressive WAR list of Top 10, fifth overall draft choices include: three MVP; two Cy Youngs; three Rookies-of-the-Year; 17 Gold Gloves; 16 Silver Sluggers and 40 All-Star Games.

But, for the present, looking ahead to the ‘25 regular season, there is much work to be done by GM Ross Atkins and company. It should begin with extending Vlad.

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