Blue Jays Angst-Filled Post-Season Quest

Jays realistic goal for the playoffs can be 90 wins

The Blue Jays dropped a sloppy 5-2 decision against the last-place Pirates on Monday and much of the Toronto fanbase is once again in a tizzy of uncertainty. It was the team’s second consecutive loss and, adding to that angst, they saw Vlad Guerrero Jr. pinch-hit for by Ty France, leaving with a tweaked left hamstring. Later on Monday, Vlad underwent a precautionary MRI with the report coming prior to Tuesday’s game. Hopefully it was merely precautionary. The prudent move may be to give Vlad the two Pirates games down, plus the off-day heading to Miami for the weekend.

The Jays might be excused for this two game slump, losing a pair of games started by MLB elite pitchers, Nathan Eovaldi and Paul Skenes. But, the bottom line is that at some point they will have to beat talented guys like that, because it’s what you are going to see every day in October.

Meanwhile, the Jays continue to battle the Tigers for best overall record in the AL, hoping to hold off the Red Sox and Yankees for the AL East title, with the ultimate goal being one of the AL’s top two seeds, in order to avoid the wild-card round.

The Jays next three starters are Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt and the debut of former Cy Young winner, Shane Bieber. Whether they use off days for extra rest or add an occasional sixth starter, every member of the rotation has 6-7 games remaining. The trade deadline acquisition of Bieber, off of Tommy John surgery, may become the key.

NOTE TO FANS

Every game is important, but there is a better, more relaxing way to look at the Jays situation that won’t have you living and dying with every win and loss. Look ahead and set a goal of 90 wins, a number that will surely gain a spot on the October dance-floor and a 90-72 mark that may possibly win the competitive AL East.

The overall perception, from afar, is that the Jays have been red-hot for a while, but the fact is that since July 27, in 21 games, they are 10-11. That sub-.500 stretch is cause for concern, accompanied by a bullpen that continues to show flashes of inconsistency, with Brendon Little frustratingly wild, along with head-scratching games that feature lack of command from Seranthony Dominguez, Louis Varland and Yariel Rodriguez. There is the potential loss of Yimi Garcia for the season.

The cliche is that it’s not a sprint. Every winning 162-game marathon is usually based on reaching plateaus, maintaining that level, then scaling to the next plateau. The Jays began the season maintaining a .500 record through May 28. Then they ascended to 5-7 games above break-even, where they remained until June 28. The team, at that point of the schedule, went on a month-long heater, rising to 20 games over .500, a plateau at which they have remained for the past 21 wheel-spinning contests. They may have one more streak in them, but even if they don’t a berth in the playoffs is realistic.

To reach 90 wins, the Jays need to go 17-19 over the final 36 games. Even with the ups and downs they showed in the last 21 games, this would seem a modest goal for a group with a deep rotation and a clubhouse that believes in one another, especially if Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer are healthy and well-rested down the stretch.

90-WIN ARGUMENT

AL Contenders: There are eight teams currently at .500 and above. They are the only teams that have a real chance at 90 wins. Here are the eight teams, with the record, in parentheses, that they need the rest of the way, to reach 90 Ws.

To reach 90 Wins: Tigers (16-19) … Blue Jays (17-19) … Astros (21-16) … Mariners (22-14) … Red Sox (22-14) … Yankees (23-15) … Guardians (26-12) … Royals (26-11).

Important to note is the number of intramural games within that group remaining for each team, AL contender vs. AL contender. The Jays, in that regard, have the schedule advantage, playing just 12 games against the other contenders. The Tigers and Astros have the most games left against above .500 teams at 21. The M’s have nine, but also face nine NL contenders, teams that will also have something on the line.

If the Jays can go 17-19 and reach 90 wins, here’s the unlikely series of events that would have to happen for them to miss the post-season. One of the Red Sox or Yankees would have to pass them for first place in the East. Note that the Yankees and Boston play each other six times. Either of them would need 91 wins, because the Jays hold the tie-breaker over each of them. The Jays play the Red Sox and Yankees three times each and have seven left vs. the dreaded but non-contending Rays.

After that, in terms of the Jays qualifying for the playoffs, if Toronto is, indeed, passed for the AL East title, and subtracting the two other automatic berths for finishing first in the AL Central (Tigers) and AL West (Astros/M’s), it would mean three of the remaining four contenders, listed above, who are not division winners and not the Jays, would also have to reach 90-plus wins. That goal is already a daunting task for the Guardians and Royals, given that each still has 16 intramural-contender games still on the schedule, including playing each other four times.

In conclusion, the 17-19 projection for the Jays is realistic and just a minimum of what might be expected. If the rotation is as strong as it could be with the veteran presence of two Cy Young winners, then, if the Jays go 20-16 in the remaining 36, that would be a 93-69 season record, fifth most in club history, equalling the 2015 Jays and trailing only the World Series years, 1992-93, plus 1985 and 1987.