Blue Jays and Vlad Guerrero Jr. agree to Legacy Contract

Homegrown star reportedly agrees to 14-year/$500-million deal

When you consider that Rogers Communications is a filthy-rich business enterprise and a sports ownership that just recently committed $7.7-billion to secure NHL broadcast rights for the next 12 seasons, then the 14-years and $500-million they reportedly reached with Blue Jays’ superstar, Vlad Guerrero, is chump change.

The inescapable truth is that if the Jays were ever going to sign their own talented, homegrown star, it had to be now. The contract is not yet official, with the final t’s to be crossed and I’s to be dotted. And please don’t tell us about a delay due to “pending physicals” because, hey Jays, he’s been playing for you for over two months already in 2025 and passed physicals in mid-February. He has been poked and prodded and watched over by your medical and training folks for the last decade, since turning pro with Toronto, on July 2, 2015. You’ve got to know what kind of shape he’s in.

The fact is the team has likely agreed with Guerrero Jr. behind the scenes to keep the mega-deal unofficial in order to make a splashy announcement at a huge press conference on the day the team returns home next Monday against the Braves. Coincidence of that timing is delicious, in that Alex Anthopoulos, the executive that signed Vlad to his first pro contract is now the Braves GM and will be in town.

The reason the Jays, when you really think about it, felt virtually compelled to pull the trigger on the Guerrero Jr. negotiations now is that, if they had failed to do so, as the trade deadline approached in July, if at that point the team was hovering around .500, then, a huge decision would have had to be made by this front office. Do they hang onto their marquee player, hoping against hope to capture a wildcard and, after that, hope to be able to sign him in the off-season, or do they trade him for a lesser package than they would have received, even, this off-season. The worst-case at that point would be to fall short of the playoffs, make a qualifying offer, lose Vlad in free agency and end up with a draft choice after 10 years of him being yours. It was now or never.

Historical Perspective

Where does Vlad now stand on the all-time list of total-value contracts? And please don’t ask us to take into account that cheesy accounting trick that the Dodgers feed us, wherein they pretend that $700-million is not $700-million because of deferrals, so that they can game the system and pay less luxury tax. They Shohei’d the money.

Consider this. If the Dodgers are going to suggest that the $68M per, that they are going to be paying Shohei for the 10 years from 2034-43, that it should be valued at less in today’s dollars in order to lower the total taxable value, then what about Vlad and the Jays and the $35.7M per year that the team will be paying him, from 2034-39. No deferral, no devaluing. Same years, same currency, but different accountants?

Moving forward, with the understanding that salary is salary, here is the current Top 10 of Total Value contracts in MLB history with Years/Dollars according to Cot’s website: 1-Juan Soto (Mets) 15/$765MN … 2-Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) 10/$700M … 3-*Vlad Guerrero Jr (Jays) 14/$500M … 4-Mike Trout (Angels) 12/$426.5M … 5-Mookie Betts (Dodgers) 12/$365M … 6-Aaron Judge (Yankees) 9/$360M … 7-Manny Machado (Padres) 11/$350M … 8-Francisco Lindor (Mets) 10/$341M … 9-Fernando Tatis Jr (Padres) 14/$340 … 10-Bryce Harper (Phillies) 13/$330M.

Chronology of Vlad career highlights

2015-Signs as an international free agent on July 2

2018-Stadium shaking walkoff HR in exhibition game at the Big O, where his father had made No. 27 famous on his way to Cooperstown. Great story about the number is it seems Vlad was a late invite on the Montreal exhibition trip, so he didn’t have an assigned number, but Dwight Smith Jr had just been sent to the O’s and, serendipitously, his No. 27 was in the equipment trunk. Later that summer, on his way from Double-A New Hampshire to AAA-Buffalo, Vlad Jr stopped at Cooperstown to see his dad inducted to the Hall, before heading up I-90 to join the Bisons.

2019-Began the year at Buffalo, but made his MLB debut on April 26, vs. Oakland, striding up the tunnel from the SkyDome hotel towards the home clubhouse wearing the Expos No. 27 jersey of his father. Doubled in the ninth for his first MLB hit. Later he collected his first two homers on May 14 at San Francisco off Nick Vincent and Reyes Moronta. As a highly touted rookie, a controversial MLB decision was made to invite Vlad to the Home Run Derby. He stole the show with 91 total bombs, including a record 29 in one round, but, physically exhausted by the final, he lost to Pete Alonso.

2020-Began the spring as a third-baseman, but had been quietly working out at first base behind the batting tunnels in Dunedin, out of the spotlight … then the pandemic hit. When summer camp and the season resumed in Buffalo, Vlad completed the career transition to a new position.

2021-The season began at TD Ballpark as renovations continued at Rogers Centre. This was the best offensive version of the Jays in the Shapiro/Atkins era, playing at three ballparks, including Sahlen Field and finally Rogers Centre, beginning in July. Guerrero Jr. was the top vote-getter at the All-Star Game, started at first base, homered in his first AB and was named the Game’s MVP. For the season, he hit 48 homers, won a Silver Slugger and finished second in MVP voting.

2022-While slumping for a full season back at Rogers Centre, Vlad won his first Gold Glove and played in his second straight all-star game. Even in a down year, offensively, he posted an .818 OPS, with 32 homers and finished 16^th in MVP voting.

2023-Guerrero Jr accepted the invite to participate in the HR Derby in Seattle. He didn’t match his 2019 numbers, but was more tactical and beat Randy Arozarena to win the title. His season numbers were down, but still posted 26 homers and 94 RBIs.

2024-Bounced back offensively last year, especially in the second half, and in the best shape of his career, Vlad set the stage for his important final ’25 season before free-agency. The fanbase paid anxious attention all off-season, looking for an extended Vlad. He had set a soft deadline to negotiate this spring, being the first day of full team workouts in Dunedin. He and Ross Atkins staged parallel press conferences, balancing optimism with pessimism, Vlad saying he wouldn’t be talking about negotiations anymore. Then, of course, he continued to talk about negotiations. Then this, coming to terms with the Blue Jays, while, at the same time, forcing the Blue Jays to come to terms with reality.

BOTTOM LINE: The obvious motive for the timing of this monstrous Vlad contract, three times as valuable as the club’s previous high, which was free-agent George Springer, 2021 (6/$150M), is that Rogers ownership needed its most marketable player to win and to fill the renovated pleasure palace that is Rogers Centre. They market themselves to a country of baseball and communications customers and the fan unrest had to be affecting their other enterprises. The likelihood is that Edward Rogers and his people intervened and quietly insisted that something get done. Fact is Edward and Vlad will be here longer than Mark and Ross and if ownership, then, showed it was willing to absorb the financial implications, that’s the bottom line.