Blue Jays 2024 First-Half Report Card
After 81 games, these are individual expectations vs. actual performance
Major-league baseball’s truth is that not every player can contribute the same to a winning effort, either physically or mentally. Not all major-leaguers have the same ability. There are roles and role players. It’s a jigsaw puzzle and with all winning teams, the pieces somehow seem to fit better.
Not all MLB players are blessed with the same skill-set. However, for each, there will be individual goals and unique projections for 26 players. Players can either meet, exceed or fall short of expectations. Certainly, for the just completed first half, after Friday’s 16-5 loss to the Yankees, this is just half of a championship season and, as a player, there is still time to alter your fortunes, to step up contributions over the final 81 contests.
The ’24 Blue Jays, after three playoff appearances in four years, were expected to compete for a wildcard, if not the division, but have thus far been a huge disappointment. The fickle finger of failure cannot be pointed at any one individual. No G.O.A.T but plenty of goats. Here is my Blue Jays mid-season 81-game report card, including suggested pre-season grades for each player followed by what each player has actually done against those expectations. Players are listed within a grouping of similar teammates then awarded a letter-grade reflecting what each has actually done at the half-way mark.
Jays Pre-Season Grade A (5 players):
RHS Jose Berrios … Grade A
The most consistently excellent player on this Jays team, his most amazing career stat is that La Makina has never missed a start in his nine major-league seasons. Has gone 6+ IP in 13 of 17 starts. The Jays are 11-6 in his starts. Only three with more than 3 earned runs.
1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. … Grade B+
Even when numbers weren’t there, early in the season, he was the one hitter that opponents felt they had to game-plan for. He is up to 12 home runs and his Exit Velocity (EV50) ranks in MLB Top 8 with Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, Ohtani and Rafael Devers.
RHS Kevin Gausman … Grade B
Cut Gausman some slack for his 0-3 start over first five starts. He emerged from training camp with just one Grapefruit League outing, so April was a spring equivalent. He has not been close to a Cy candidate in the first half, but may have worked out the riddle of his repertoire, mostly splitter and four-seamer. His final numbers will end consistent with his last three years.
SS Bo Bichette … Grade C
With Bichette on Thursday being the one to open the Pandora’s Box of a possible trade deadline departure, upon examining 14 contenders, the only one that would seem looking for a year-and-a-half upgrade at short is the Dodgers, with injured Mookie Betts. Bo’s average vs. LHP is .151 and with two strikes is .198. He is .362 with RISP, ranking MLB 50th in Exit Velocity. But his first half has been extremely disappointing
CL Jordan Romano … Grade C-
With already two stints on the IL, costing Jordan 49 days and counting, his last five appearances had produced 0-2, with 2 saves and one blown, allowing 3HR in 3IP. Prior to this, his 3 full seasons have been remarkably consistent with an average of 61 games and 32 saves. At the halfway mark, he needs his slider, fastball mix to be on track quickly when he returns.
Jays Pre-Season Grade B (13 players):
RH Yimi Garcia … Grade A+
Before he was placed on the IL, on June 17, an argument could have been made that Garcia was the Blue Jays’ Most Valuable Player. He was used in the highest leverage situations, not necessarily as closer, stranding his first 8 inherited runners, many in the most precarious of situations. The Jays were 14-2 in games worked by Yimi in which Romano was IL’d.
LHS Yusei Kikuchi … Grade A-
It was important for Yusei to follow up his breakout 2023 season with a repeat performance, perhaps even a little bit of a step up, in what is his final season before free-agency. His Jays numbers at the halfway mark project even better than 2023, locking in on pitch usage and sequences, playing off a 96-mph four-seamer that he uses 48% of the time.
RH Trevor Richards … Grade A-
His value is in the multiple roles he has played, as an opener, as a setup guy, as a long reliever, using a mix of changeup, both up in the zone and down, plus a 92-mph fastball he can spot on the edges that plays harder than the number. Richards, despite the Yankee outing, has allowed just 20 hits in 42 innings, with a WHIP under one. His numbers all project as career best.
OF Daulton Varsho … Grade B+
Despite his struggles at the plate, Varsho’s superior defence leads baseball in runs saved, a fact that allows for this mid-season rating above his expected B. Emerging from four days off after a jarring collision with the fence in left, his bat is just good enough for him to contribute on offence, leading to more time in centre field, as the Jays search for added runs elsewhere.
RHS Chris Bassitt … Grade B+
Bassitt has needed a year-and-a-half, but it seems the cerebral, passionate righthander has finally mastered new rules, including milking the pitch clock, calling his own game, stepping off with runners on, to reset the clock, turning his back on throwbacks to add precious seconds and simply enjoying the types of mind games. Has an 8-pitch repertoire with 3 of them fastballs.
2B/LF Davis Schneider … Grade B-
What you see is what you get with Schneider, but there was no way the moustachioed one could maintain the same numbers from his starry debut at Fenway last August. In fact, the experiment of batting him at the top of the order may be over. In 41 games since May 12, he has a .177 average, .265 on-base and .622 OPS. His time at 2B/LF won’t be every day.
C Danny Jansen … Grade B-
One would hope Jansen doesn’t have to audition for the next three months to be re-upped by the Jays as a free agent. He is a leader of the pitching staff, blocks balls in the dirt, presents borderline pitches expertly to umpires and is more important to this team than he could possibly be to any other. When he returned from the IL, he was dealing numbers on offence and now needs to get back to that production in the second half.
RH Chad Green … Grade B-
His is the classic case of injuries to other pitchers creating a trickle-up factor, leading to being used out of an optimum comfort zone. Green should ideally be a 7th or 8th inning guy, but is the de facto closer in the absence of Romano and Garcia. Missed 42 days on IL, returning May 28.
DH Justin Turner … Grade C+
Signed as a DH, with the ability to play third and first-base on occasion, the veteran professional hitter has brought sagacity to the clubhouse and patience and the ability to run up opposing pitch counts at the plate. Maybe the Jays were expecting a little more offence, but he is starting to bounce back as reflected in an on-base over .500 since June 5.
C Alejandro Kirk … Grade C
At one point early in his career, there was so much expected from the young Mexican receiver that Jays front office felt it was able to trade Gabby Moreno to Arizona. In 2023 it was expected he would do a lot of DH’ing, so they believed Varsho’s ability as a 3rd catcher was important. That moment has passed and now Kirk’s calling card is on defence, able to control the bottom of the strike zone. When Jansen was IL, Kirk struggled with the workload.
RF George Springer … Grade C-
The recent Springer outburst offensively is a good sign moving forward to the second half, but it can’t re-write the dismal record of the first 81 games. The hit-by-pitch on his hand vs. the Yankees came at the worst time. The sign of his professionalism is that his defence in right field has been sublime and often contributed to keeping his team in games.
LH Tim Mayza … Grade D-
Expected to be the key lefty in the bullpen, too often, including five straight Yankee hits on Friday, he has been the weakest link in a chain of Jays relievers leading to disappointing losses. Righthanders have hit .365, with an OPS well over 1.000, which makes it difficult for Mayza pitching in a 3-batter minimum world. Has an alarming 1.946 WHIP.
RH Erik Swanson … Grade D-
It’s been a tough go this year for Swanson, acquired prior to the ’23 season from the Mariners. He went through the anguish of his son’s accident at spring training and was away from the club. With that late start he began the season on the IL, struggled to get his three-pitch repertoire down in the zone and was sent to AAA-Buffalo. They need him in the second half.
Jays Pre-Season Grade C (5 players):
INF Isiah Kiner-Falefa … Grade B
The former Yankee and Ranger has given the Jays all they had hoped for when they signed him to a 2-year deal. Right now, he needs to be on the field nightly at either second or third base and has even filled in at shortstop for Bo when he was sidelined briefly. IKF has contributed more offensively than was expected, with ability to bunt, hit-and-run and swing for extra bases.
LH Genesis Cabrera … Grade C
The dynamic stuff would lead one to believe that Cabrera’s numbers should be better. He has held lefty hitters to a .208 average, but too often his lack of command of the strike zone leaves him in bad counts and with hittable pitches. Does not do as well after 3 or more days off.
CF Kevin Kiermaier … Grade C-
When Kiermaier re-signed with the Jays, he said he was surprised there was less interest in him this year than last, but it seems 29 other teams knew. His Gold Glove defence remains, but his splits of .207 vs. righthanders and .179 vs. lefties has forced him into what seems like fourth OF and late-inning defensive role.
RH Bowden Francis … Grade C-
More has been expected from Francis, who entered the season as an important long man/fifth starter. He has shown flashes of being a major-league contributor but as the first half wraps up, with a failure vs. Yankees, he has yet to click in any defined role.
RHS Yariel Rodriguez … Grade D+
The 25-year-old Cuban rookie is under contract for four years, so he will definitely have a role moving forward. Ideally, it will be as a fifth starter, but for now, his command, limited, per-game, pitch count and his time on the IL make it tough to grade him.
Jays Pre-Season Grade D (6 players):
1B/2B Spencer Horwitz … Grade A-
One of four Buffalo Boys on the current roster that have breathed new life into a moribund clubhouse, Horwitz was the final one of that quartet called up after he posted a bad spring, but has now reached base in every one of 14 starts at either 2B or 1B. He has made rookie mistakes from which he will learn. Is a keeper.
INF Ernie Clement … Grade B-
Has surprised with his knowledge of the strike zone, his aggressive plate presence and the extra-base power he has displayed, Clement has no minor-league options remaining, but is a classic bench player with an ability to play shortstop which might keep him around.
RH Zach Pop … Grade C+
Has become a favourite of MGR Schneider to call upon in situations with inherited runners and needing a groundball. Armed with a heavy sinker and riding 2-seamer at 97 mph, he has his moments, but like Pearson, Mayza and Cabrera needs to show consistency.
LH Brendon Little … Grade C
A third lefthander, who earned an opportunity because of injuries to others, Little impressed the coaches at spring training and was advised to go to Buffalo and work on command and control in order to become a lefty specialist in the majors. He is ahead of Mayza in leverage.
RH Nate Pearson … Grade C-
Inconsistency, thy name is Pearson. Armed with a slider and a 4-seam fastball at 96-100 mph, all the tools are there to be a regular contributor, but something intangible is missing. He is already within two appearances of his career high of 35 games.
UT Addison Barger … Grade D
Just a raw kid with tools. Already has the Jays’ hardest recorded throws in the Statcast era from both outfield and infield, but makes too many mistakes, many of them due to inexperience. Has been playing pretty much out of position most starts.
Incomplete: RH Alek Manoah (IL), IF Orelvis Martinez (Restricted), OF Steward Berroa, C Bryan Serven, PH Paolo Espino, LH Brandon Eisert, RH Ryan Burr.
Here once but now Gone: UT Cavan Biggio, DH Daniel Vogelbach, RH Mitch White, RH Wes Parsons.