MLB Wildcard and Division Series Notes:
Major League Baseball’s Final Four, end-of-year, team payrolls, according to the reliable Cot’s Baseball Contracts include the Dodgers (1), Rays (20), Brewers (23) and Guardians (25). There is more on the line for baseball this year than just crowning a 2026 champion. The combined payrolls of the three contenders seeking to take the crown from the looking-for-a-three-peat Dodgers is, contenders $293.4M compared to L.A.’s 2026 calculated payout to players of $366.0M. Fans want a salary cap, but don’t understand that the players have fought 60 years to avoid that restriction. They are not about to give up now, in exchange fro scraps thrown their way. Winter is coming!
The stated premise of the ownership side of the ongoing labour negotiation is that a salary cap is a necessity to ensure a healthy and competitive MLB. Consider that, contrary to this assumption, what we pointed out earlier, that only one of the top 19 payrolls remains alive into the semi-finals. Really, we all know that the owners competitive concern for the 30 fanbases has never been the true reason there will likely be a lockout on Dec. 1. The salary cap is all about “cost certainty” heading towards expansion, so that bidding ownership groups will be inclined to pay more for a new franchise, with the increased fee being divided among the existing teams.
The players’ association has already proved its point about more parity coming with increased competence from front offices, with regard to both player acquisition and development. Those are far more important to fair competition than team payroll, nevertheless, it would be important to fan perception and their taking sides if one of the three non-Dodgers contenders should win the Fall Classic.
Statistical Observations from early Playoffs:
The unhealthy reliance in October on bullpens, encouraged by so many built-in off days, the reluctance of non-elite starters being allowed to go a third time through the orders and that so many middle relievers are now throwing 100-plus, reflects in some telling numbers heading into LCS play. Starters in ’26, through 25 playoff games, have logged a total of 207.2 innings, averaging 4.1 IP per start. Relievers have accumulated 230 innings and are credited with 19 of the 25 wins. Yeah, we know, wins are so 20th Century.
*The top two seeds from each league are competing in the League Championship Series, all four having played just 3-5 five games in 14 days since Sept. 27. This become the first time in the past eight seasons that the final four has not included at least one team from the wildcard round. The last time was in 2018 when there were just two wildcard teams and they played one game to advance to the final eight.
Now the series previews.
2026 AL Championship Series
(2) Guardians (85-77) vs. (1) Rays (98-64)
G1 Mon. Oct. 12 @ Tampa Bay … 8:00 p.m.
G2 Tues. Oct. 13 @ Tampa Bay … 8:00 p.m.
G3 Thu. Oct. 15 @ Cleveland … 6:00 p.m.
G4 Fri. Oct. 16 @ Cleveland … 6:00 p.m.
*G5 Sat. Oct. 17 @ Cleveland … 8:00 p.m.
*G6 Mon. Oct. 19 @ Tampa Bay … 5:00 p.m.
*G7 Tues. Oct. 20 @ Tampa Bay … 8:00 p.m.
HOW THEY GOT HERE: The top-seed Rays were never truly challenged for that first-place standing throughout the second half, despite competing in the toughest division in baseball. The AL East had a combined 5-team record of +64 games above .500. The Rays earned a bye in the first round, then swept three games against the disappointing Yankees, who, now, have just one WS ring in the past 26 years.
The Guardians were chasing the Chisox in the AL Central for most of the summer in what seemed like a mortal lock for the Sox, at one point, with the blessing of Chicago native, Pope Leo XIV, but the Guardians under MGR Stephen Vogt are forever relentless and ran them down, then beat the same Windy City boys in a dramatic 5-game Division Series, after having dropped the first two at home. It was the first such “lose two at home then sweep the next three” sequence in any 5-game series since the Jays beat the Rangers in the bat-flip Game 5 in 2015.
The Rays were 5-1 vs. the Guardians in the regular season, outscoring them 20-8, with the teams averaging just 4.67 combined runs per game.
PITCHING: The Rays and Guardians both have more traditional starting staffs, with each team able to trot out a three-man top starting group that can be expected to reach up to 6-7 innings and just over 100 pitches. This construction is a welcome sight for baseball traditionalists who had, in years past, set their interest-meter on October starting pitcher matchup. The Rays have RH Drew Rasmussen, RH Freddy Peralta and LH Nick Martinez, while the Guardians can counter with LH Parker Messick, RH Gavin Williams and RH Tanner Bibee or LH Foster Griffin. The Guardians leverage relief pair of CL Cade Smith and RH Hunter Gaddis appeared in all 5 ALDS games, combining for 1 ER allowed in 11 innings, with 7H, 1BB and 17 Ks. The Rays counter with the trio of CL Bryan Baker, RH Griffin Jax and LH Ian Seymour. The entire Rays staff posted a combined WHIP of .704 vs. the Yankees and a 1.67 ERA, overall.
HITTING: The Rays averaged just 3.3 runs per game, but all three Tampa Bay homers they managed vs. the Yankees, over three games of the sweep, gave them the lead in the game, by Jonathan Aranda, Ryan Vilade and Victor Mesa Jr. The Rays had what is arguably the best Top 3 in the order in the AL -- DH Yandy Diaz, 1B Aranda and 3B Jose Caminero, who has yet to heat up. The Guardians looked destined for defeat after losing the first two at home to the White Sox, but after opening the series 0-for-7, all-star 3B Jose Ramirez came alive going 5-for-11-.455 with a double, a triple, two homers and 7 RBIs, adding up to a 1.864 OPS. He needs to stay hot.
INTANGIBLES: These are two managers, Stephen Vogt (Guardians) and Kevin Cash (Rays) who are expected to finish 1-2 in AL Manager-of-the-Year voting. The Rays are 2-0 in ALCS and 0-2 in WS. The Guardians are 3-3 in ALCS and 2-4 in WS. I was at the ceremony on the outside concourse at Fulton County Stadium in 1991, when the Native American elders placed a curse on the Braves and the Indians that they should never win the World Series until they changed their offensive team names. The Indians became the Guardians and having reached the ALCS for a second time with their new name, they have a chance. Rays fans have been showing up for the playoffs, but truth is the fanbase doesn’t deserve it.
PREDICTION: Guardians in 7
2026 NL Championship Series
(2) Dodgers (100-62) vs. (1) Brewers (103-59)
G1 Sun. Oct. 11 @ Milwaukee … 8:00 p.m.
G2 Mon. Oct. 12 @ Milwaukee … 5:00 p.m.
G3 Wed. Oct. 14 @ Los Angeles … 8:00 p.m.
G4 Thu. Oct. 15 @ Los Angeles … 9:00 p.m.
*G5 Fri. Oct. 16 @ Los Angeles … 9:00 p.m.
*G6 Sun. Oct. 18 @ Milwaukee … 8:00 p.m.
*G7 Mon. Oct. 19 @ Milwaukee … 8:00 p.m.
HOW THEY GOT HERE: The Dodgers beat the Braves in four games, outscoring Atlanta 14-8. The Dodgers averaged just 3.5 runs per game, but the pitching carried them and eight homers powered the way despite a .203 team BA. Is this a better Dodgers team than beat the Blue Jays in WS Game 7 last year? The Brewers are the favourites of all fans of the underdog, except for the TV Network carrying the World Series. Milwaukee downed the Padres in four games in the NLDS. The Brewers are 1-3 in ALCS history and 0-1 in the World Series, that in 1982 vs. the Cardinals when the Brew Crew was AL. The Dodgers are going after a three-peat of World Series titles, a result that owners who favour a hard salary cap are cheering for, under their breaths. The new Evil Empire West, other owners will tell you, is everything that’s wrong with players being allowed to earn what an employer is willing to pay them. Some might call that a free enterprise system. The Brewers play the game right, showing that money can’t buy scrappiness. A small-market warrior, Milwaukee held off the Dodgers for the top overall seed which very quietly shows L.A. is vulnerable.
PITCHING: Game 1 is what we were talking about earlier, a primo pitching matchup that will have fans tuning in for a potential classic, with LH Tarik Skubal vs. RH Jacob Misiorowski. The Brewers need to count on winning every game that Misiorowski starts, but that doesn’t always work out. They need either RH Logan Henderson or RH Dustin May to step up. The Dodgers rotation can go with Skubal, RH Yosh Yamamoto and RH Tyler Glasnow and still have in reserve LH Blake Snell, RH Justin Wrobleski and RH Roki Sasaski. The Dodgers use the bully pulpit of unlimited payroll to manipulate the regular season Injury List as a holding tank for an overabundance of mound talent. Keep ‘em October fresh. L.A.’s bullpen is anchored by CL Edwin Diaz, who is still at times questionable, with help from LH Tanner Scott and LH Alex Vesia. The Brewers have a more defined bullpen with CL Trevor Megill and loose cannon setup man RH Abner Uribe. The best long man in the NL was Brewers LH Aaron Ashby. Brewers are up against it.
HITTING: The Dodgers lineup since beating the Blue Jays last year, added RF Kyle Tucker and made regulars out of CF Andy Pages and 2B Tommy Edman. The key to the Dodgers offence is always the consistency of Freddie Freeman. They would love for DH Shohei Ohtani to become Shohei Ohtani, but is he maybe playing through an injury? The Brewers in ’26 used just three of 28 position players that are 30-years-of-age or older. The Brew Crew is a role model for an emerging style of modern baseball that eschews the all-or-nothing style that has been ruled by launch angle and exit velocity. They choose to move runners, steal bases, lay down bunts, field your position, respect your slot in that day’s batting order, don’t feel privileged and play situational baseball under MGR Pat Murphy.
INTANGIBLES: Other MLB owners want the Dodgers to win and go on to capture the World Series. The active players in baseball and the union itself, prior to the Dec. 1 deadline, are cheering hard for the Brewers in order to shut down the argument that fans seem to have bought into, emotionally, at least on social media, that the only way to level the playing field to allow small markets to become competitive is a salary cap. The Brewers, Rays and Guardians are hoping to disprove that.
PREDICTION: Brewers in 6